latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Harris-mania subsides a bit, as she drops a little while Biden has a bit of a rebound.  Also, Hillary Clinton now up to 7th place(!):

Up: Biden, Clinton
Down: Harris

Democrats
Harris 32.9
Warren 20.5
Biden 16.3
Buttigieg 8.1
Sanders 8.1
Yang 3.3
Clinton 2.5
Booker 2.4
Gabbard 2.1
O’Rourke 1.8
Castro 1.6

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Haley 4.2
Pence 3.3

Four years ago today:

Bush breaks 40…

Dems

Clinton 84.0
Sanders 13.4

GOP

Bush 40.7
Rubio 20.4
Walker 16.3
Paul 8.4
Huckabee 5.5
Trump 5.3
Carson 3.4
Christie 3.3

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 34.6
Perry 18.2
Bachmann 13.3
Huntsman 8.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Palin 6.1
Paul 2.1
Giuliani 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.7
Cain 1.4
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.5

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 44.1
Obama 38.0
Gore 6.3
Edwards 5.7
Richardson 1.9
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 39.0
Thompson 33.9
Romney 16.4
McCain 5.0
Paul 2.8
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.7
Hagel 0.7
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.3
Cheney 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.1
Hunter 0.1
Brownback 0.1

[brucejoel99]

Also, Hillary Clinton now up to 7th place(!):

Clinton 2.5

This has to be purely based on some presumption that a brokered Democratic Convention may result in her somehow being nominated as a compromise candidate, right?

[Mr. Morden]

Also, Hillary Clinton now up to 7th place(!):

Clinton 2.5

This has to be purely based on some presumption that a brokered Democratic Convention may result in her somehow being nominated as a compromise candidate, right?

Maybe, but it could also just be people who bet on or against her at a higher price like a year ago (back when there were still holdouts thinking she'd run again) dumping their position now, rather than waiting until Summer 2020 to cash out.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden continues to slowly recover:

Up: Biden, Buttigieg
Down: Harris

Harris 30.5
Warren 21.3
Biden 18.6
Buttigieg 9.1
Sanders 8.1
Yang 3.1
Clinton 2.9
Booker 2.1
O’Rourke 1.8
Castro 1.5
Gabbard 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Warren, Biden
Down: Harris

Democrats
Harris 29.6
Warren 22.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 8.8
Sanders 8.1
Yang 3.3
Booker 2.4
Clinton 2.1
O’Rourke 1.5
Castro 1.4
Gabbard 1.4

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 3.1
Haley 2.9

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 84.0
Sanders 12.2

Republicans
Bush 42.9
Walker 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Paul 6.8
Trump 6.5
Huckabee 5.8
Carson 4.3
Christie 4.2
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 2.6

Roughly eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2964703#msg2964703

GOP nomination
Perry 31.7
Romney 30.3
Bachmann 9.3
Huntsman 7.0
Pawlenty 6.0
Palin 5.2
Paul 2.2
Christie 2.1
Giuliani 2.0
Gingrich 0.9
Cain 0.8
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Ryan 0.4

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1249026#msg1249026

Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 37.0
Edwards 6.2
Gore 4.8
Richardson 2.8
Biden 0.8
Clark 0.7

Republicans
Giuliani 39.7
Thompson 28.0
Romney 18.8
McCain 6.3
Gingrich 3.5
Paul 3.0
Huckabee 0.7
Rice 0.7
Hagel 0.5
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Cheney 0.1
J. Bush 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg gains while Harris drops a bit more, in what’ll presumably be my last update before this week’s debate:

Harris 28.8
Warren 22.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 10.0
Sanders 8.1
Yang 3.4
Booker 2.3
Clinton 2.1
Gabbard 1.6
O’Rourke 1.5

Four years ago today:

Bush 42.2
Walker 16.3
Rubio 12.8
Trump 7.8
Paul 6.8
Huckabee 5.5
Christie 4.2
Carson 3.8
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 3.1

[Lambsbread]

Pete in 4th place now and Trump in 4th place 4 years ago? It's happening.

[here2view]

How is Hillary valued at 4 cents for yes? LOL.

[Mr. Morden]

How is Hillary valued at 4 cents for yes? LOL.

She's at 2, not 4.

[President Johnson]

Surprised Harris is still that much up. Since the debate, she didn't do that well. Hopefully Uncle Joe surges after the next debate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Surprised Harris is still that much up. Since the debate, she didn't do that well. Hopefully Uncle Joe surges after the next debate.

The media will declare Harris the winner again.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Surprised Harris is still that much up. Since the debate, she didn't do that well. Hopefully Uncle Joe surges after the next debate.

The media will declare Harris the winner again.

Anybody who watched the debate and had only half the brain capacity of the average human being could tell Harris dominated the debate.

Stop with this hate fetish.

[here2view]

How is Hillary valued at 4 cents for yes? LOL.

She's at 2, not 4.

She was at 4 when I posted.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate night 1 update: Sanders has the biggest gain, bumping Buttigieg down to 5th.  Meanwhile, Biden now edges Warren for 2nd.

Up: Sanders
Down: Warren, Buttigieg

Harris 28.4
Biden 21.7
Warren 21.3
Sanders 10.5
Buttigieg 7.8
Yang 3.3
Booker 2.3
Clinton 1.9
Gabbard 1.6
Castro 1.4

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate night 2 update: Harris, Warren, and Biden all seem to be converging on the same price….

Up: Warren, Yang, Gabbard
Down: Harris, Sanders

Harris 26.3
Warren 22.2
Biden 21.7
Sanders 9.1
Buttigieg 8.5
Yang 4.3
Booker 2.9
Gabbard 2.5
Clinton 1.9
Castro 1.4

However, while Sanders dropped from his post-night 1 bounce, his overall change from where he was on the weekend is the highest net positive of the field, going up +1.0 points.  And Harris is the biggest loser compared to a few days ago, dropping 2.5 points.  (Though she’s still in the lead.)

[Mr. Morden]

Biden surges back into the #1 spot, as Harris drops to 3rd:

Up: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Gabbard
Down: Harris

Biden 27.7
Warren 23.2
Harris 22.2
Sanders 10.7
Buttigieg 8.8
Yang 4.5
Gabbard 4.0
Booker 2.9
Clinton 2.1
Castro 1.1
M. Obama 1.1
O’Rourke 1.1

Four years ago at this point:

Bush 43.3
Walker 18.0
Rubio 8.8
Trump 8.4
Huckabee 5.9
Paul 5.3
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.2
Kasich 3.4
Carson 3.3

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2976524#msg2976524

Perry 30.6
Romney 29.4
Huntsman 7.4
Bachmann 6.4
Palin 6.1
Pawlenty 6.1
Paul 2.3
Giuliani 2.0
Christie 1.5
Ryan 1.0
Johnson 0.7
Cain 0.6
Gingrich 0.6
Pataki 0.5
Santorum 0.4

Twelve years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1255735#msg1255735

Democrats
Clinton 49.1
Obama 35.0
Edwards 7.2
Gore 4.2
Richardson 2.9
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.8
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 36.1
Thompson 30.8
Romney 17.3
McCain 6.2
Gingrich 3.2
Paul 3.1
Rice 1.1
Hagel 1.0
Huckabee 0.8
Cheney 0.3
J. Bush 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Powell 0.1

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

M. Obama 1.1
O’Rourke 1.1

Haha oh Beto

[Mr. Morden]

Biden still in the lead, but drops a bit from his immediate post-debate high:

Democrats
Biden 25.4
Warren 23.2
Harris 22.2
Sanders 10.9
Buttigieg 8.1
Gabbard 3.6
Yang 3.6
Booker 3.1
Clinton 1.8
O’Rourke 1.2

Republicans
Trump 91.7
Pence 3.1
Ryan 2.2
Haley 2.1

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Sanders 11.6
Biden 7.2
O'Malley 2.1

Republicans
Bush 45.0
Walker 19.3
Trump 10.0
Rubio 8.8
Kasich 5.3
Paul 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Christie 4.2
Cruz 3.8
Carson 2.6

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade....Perry and Romney were tied:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2979995#msg2979995

Perry 31.0
Romney 31.0
Huntsman 7.5
Palin 7.0
Bachmann 5.6
Christie 4.5
Paul 3.0
Pawlenty 2.1
Guliani 1.8
Gingrich 0.6
Johnson 0.6

Twelve years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1257958#msg1257958

Democrats
Clinton 50.3
Obama 33.5
Edwards 7.0
Gore 4.5
Richardson 2.9
Biden 1.1
Clark 1.1
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.9
Thompson 31.4
Romney 18.5
McCain 6.0
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 3.1
Hagel 1.2
Rice 0.7
Huckabee 0.6
J. Bush 0.1
Bloomberg 0.1
Brownback 0.1
Tancredo 0.1
Cheney 0.1
Powell 0.1
T. Thompson 0.1

[NOVA Green]

Harris appears to be significantly overvalued compared to her National and State polling numbers, and Biden slightly undervalued, and Bernie way undervalued and Buttigieg slightly overvalued....

Get the point that some folks are doing odd bets, but still "don't believe the hype" in the words of the Great Public Enemy....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point: Biden, Warren or Beto can win Iowa and help propel their campaign

[Eraserhead]

Warren is overvalued too. Her support is only slightly less lily white than Buttigieg's (at least in every poll other than Yougov).

[John Dule]

Yang and Gabbard are being overvalued by internet support.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but people on the internet generally exist in real life too.

[RaphaelDLG]

Harris seems overvalued, Sanders undervalued; otherwise seems more or less right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1158488081323974658

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

I can think of one fairly massive circumstance that has changed in Trump's favor: Mueller.