latest Betfair odds

[BlueSwan]

Buttigieg is starting to look really good to me.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden's recovered enough to now be in a tie for 3rd:

Sanders 22.6
Harris 22.2
Biden 14.9
O’Rourke 14.9
Buttigieg 11.9
Yang 5.0
Warren 3.8
Gabbard 3.3
Booker 2.8
Klobuchar 2.8

[Mr. Morden]

O'Rourke's dropped hard the last couple of days, now down to 5th place, and his lowest point since February (which I think is before he formally entered the race):

Sanders 22.2
Harris 21.7
Biden 15.8
Buttigieg 11.6
O’Rourke 10.5
Yang 5.0
Warren 3.8
Gabbard 3.1
Klobuchar 2.8
Booker 2.6

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg moves up to 3rd place:

Democrats
Sanders 20.8
Harris 18.9
Buttigieg 15.4
Biden 14.5
O’Rourke 11.6
Yang 5.3
Booker 4.0
Warren 3.8
Gabbard 2.9
Klobuchar 2.9

Republicans
Trump 88.2
Haley 4.2
Kasich 2.8
Pence 2.6

[Mr. Morden]

The latest Biden news has him moving up to a tie with Harris for 2nd place:

Democrats
Sanders 21.7
Biden 17.4
Harris 17.4
Buttigieg 15.4
O’Rourke 9.1
Yang 4.5
Warren 4.2
Gabbard 2.9
Booker 2.8
Klobuchar 2.6
Clinton 1.8

Republicans
Trump 87.5
Pence 6.4
Haley 3.8

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg surges into 2nd place…

Up: Buttigieg
Down: Biden, O’Rourke

Sanders 21.3
Buttigieg 19.6
Harris 16.8
Biden 15.4
O’Rourke 7.8
Warren 4.2
Yang 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Gabbard 2.8
Booker 2.5

Four years ago at this point:

Bush 33.9
Rubio 20.4
Walker 20.0
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 7.8
Cruz 5.3
Perry 3.4
Carson 2.8
Christie 2.1
Fiorina 2.1
Pence 2.1

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.4
Pawlenty 15.7
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 8.4
Trump 7.0
Bachmann 6.7
Palin 5.6
Huntsman 5.1
Barbour 3.4
Gingrich 2.9
Paul 2.0
Ryan 2.0
Johnson 1.7
Christie 1.2

Twelve years ago at this time on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1173452#msg1173452

Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 29.6
Edwards 9.1
Gore 9.0
Richardson 3.1
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 31.0
Thompson 18.6
McCain 17.4
Romney 17.4
Gingrich 3.2
Hagel 3.1
Huckabee 2.0
Bloomberg 1.5
Rice 1.3
T. Thompson 0.9
Brownback 0.6
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1
Santorum 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Biden’s entry into the race sees him surge into 2nd place, while Buttigieg drops.

Up: Biden, Sanders
Down: Buttigieg, Harris

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

[eric82oslo]

Yang is surging too.

[Mr. Morden]

Big shakeup, with Biden surging into 1st place, Warren into 5th, and Abrams cracking the top 10.

Up: Biden, Warren, Abrams
Down: Buttigieg, Harris, O’Rourke

Biden 28.4
Sanders 20.8
Harris 13.4
Buttigieg 11.1
Warren 7.8
O’Rourke 6.8
Yang 4.8
Abrams 4.2
Klobuchar 2.4
Booker 2.2

[eric82oslo]

The current highest odds from the 17 international bookmakers tracked by Oddschecker.com:

1. Sanders: 3.5
2. Biden: 3.75
3. Harris: 7
4. Buttigieg: 7
5. O'Rourke: 14
6. Yang: 17
7. Warren: 20
8. Booker: 33
9. Gabbard: 50
10. Klobuchar: 50

11. Gillibrand: 80
12. Hickenlooper: 80
13. Castro: 100
14. Bullock: 100
15. Swalwell: 100
16. Abrams: 100
17. Inslee: 100
18. Moulton: 100
19. Bennet: 100
20. Ryan: 100

21. Delaney & De Blasio: 100

23. Messam: 100
24. Williamson: 150



https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[Mr. Morden]

Biden 26.9
Sanders 20.5
Harris 15.8
Buttigieg 11.4
Warren 7.0
O’Rourke 6.0
Yang 5.8
Gabbard 2.8
Booker 2.4
Klobuchar 2.3
Abrams 2.2
Clinton 1.6

Four years ago today:

Bush 33.9
Rubio 22.6
Walker 20.4
Paul 9.5
Huckabee 7.5
Cruz 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Totesport)
Carson 3.3
Fiorina 3.3
Pence 2.1
Ryan 1.9
Trump 1.8
Perry 1.4
Jindal 1.2
Martinez 1.2
Christie 1.1
Romney 1.1

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 23.8
Pawlenty 17.5
Daniels 13.2
Huntsman 10.0
Huckabee 8.9
Bachmann 6.0
Trump 5.2
Palin 5.1
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.9
Cain 2.0
Christie 1.4
Ryan 1.2
Johnson 0.8
Giuliani 0.7
Santorum 0.6

Twelve years ago at this point on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1185566#msg1185566

Democrats
Clinton 47.2
Obama 30.6
Gore 10.6
Edwards 8.1
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 31.9
McCain 21.5
Romney 17.1
Thompson 15.1
Hagel 3.0
Gingrich 2.7
Huckabee 2.4
Rice 1.2
Bloomberg 0.9
T. Thompson 0.8
Paul 0.7
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.3
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Hogan’s now tied with Pence for second place in the GOP nomination market (at ~3% each).  Also, Warren is slightly ahead of where she was four years ago (when she wasn’t running).  Oh, and note that Trump was actually doing better in the betting markets in May 2011 than he was in May 2015:

Democrats
Biden 27.4
Sanders 20.5
Harris 15.4
Buttigieg 10.5
Warren 7.5
O’Rourke 6.0
Yang 5.4
Gabbard 2.6
Klobuchar 2.2
Booker 2.1
Clinton 1.8
Abrams 1.6
Castro 1.4
M. Obama 1.1

Republicans
Trump 87.5
Hogan 3.1
Pence 3.1
Kasich 2.8
Ryan 2.5

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Biden 10.5
Warren 7.0
Sanders 6.8

Republicans
Bush 39.4
Walker 22.2
Rubio 21.2
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 7.2
Kasich 3.8 (Totesport)
Christie 3.6
Cruz 3.4
Carson 3.3
Perry 3.3
Fiorina 2.5
Ryan 1.9
Pence 1.8
Trump 1.5
Jindal 1.2
Martinez 1.2

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 25.1
Pawlenty 15.3
Huntsman 12.8
Daniels 10.5
Palin 5.6
Gingrich 4.3
Bachmann 4.0
Trump 3.8
Cain 3.7
Paul 3.2
Christie 2.6
Huckabee 2.5
Ryan 1.0
Giuliani 0.8

Twelve years ago at this point on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1187171#msg1187171

Democrats
Clinton 56.0
Obama 30.3
Gore 10.7
Edwards 8.2
Richardson 2.5
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 28.6
McCain 27.4
Romney 18.0
Thompson 14.9
Hagel 2.8
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.1
T. Thompson 0.7
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Paul 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's nice to see Peter dropping like a rock 👍🏻

[Minnesota Mike]

Buy Biden, Buttigieg, Trump. Sell Harris, O’Rourke, Yang.

Sticking with what I said 6 weeks ago.

[eric82oslo]

Buy Yang, sell the rest.

[Mr. Morden]

Not much movement from last week, though Trump hits 90, and O’Rourke has dropped below 5.

Democrats
Biden 28.0
Sanders 20.5
Harris 16.3
Buttigieg 10.7
Warren 8.4
Yang 5.3
O’Rourke 4.8
Gabbard 4.2
Booker 2.1
Klobuchar 1.9

Republicans
Trump 90.0
Pence 5.0
Hogan 3.1

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 82.0
Warren 6.5
Biden 5.8
Sanders 5.5
O'Malley 5.0

Republicans
Bush 33.4
Walker 22.2
Rubio 21.2
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 7.0
Cruz 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Totesport)
Carson 3.3
Perry 3.3
Christie 3.1
Fiorina 2.5

[Mr. Morden]

Biden over 30….

Biden 30.5
Sanders 19.6
Harris 16.3
Buttigieg 10.9
Warren 7.5
Yang 5.0
O’Rourke 4.8
Gabbard 3.4
Klobuchar 1.9
Booker 1.8
Clinton 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Someone bet Messam up to 1.0 (and 13th place).  While I doubt it’ll last, Trump was in 13th place at this point four years ago, so one can always dream:

Biden 30.0
Sanders 18.9
Harris 15.8
Buttigieg 11.9
Warren 8.1
O’Rourke 5.0
Yang 4.3
Gabbard 3.3
Klobuchar 2.1
Clinton 1.8
Booker 1.6
Newsom 1.1
Messam 1.0

Four years ago at this point:

Bush 32.9
Rubio 20.8
Walker 20.0
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 6.8
Kasich 4.8 (Paddypower)
Carson 3.4
Cruz 3.4
Fiorina 3.3
Perry 2.9
Christie 2.8
Pence 1.8
Trump 1.5
Martinez 1.2
Jindal 1.1
Romney 1.1
Ryan 1.1
Santorum 1.0

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 28.3
Pawlenty 21.0
Huntsman 16.0
Palin 8.9
Cain 5.7
Bachmann 5.5
Perry 4.3
Christie 2.1
Paul 2.1
Gingrich 1.7
Giuliani 1.2
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.4
J. Bush 0.3

Twelve years ago today on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1197993#msg1197993

Democrats
Clinton 50.6
Obama 28.6
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 26.9
Romney 23.3
Thompson 22.0
McCain 18.0
Gingrich 2.9
Huckabee 2.2
Hagel 1.4
Bloomberg 1.1
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.7
Brownback 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's time for Beto, Booker, Gillibrand, Gabbard, Klobuchar, and Castro to drop out.

No one likes Newsom anymore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why in the world is Gabbard higher than Booker and Klobuchar? 

[Lambsbread]

Why in the world is Gabbard higher than Booker and Klobuchar? 

She hasn't had her Ron Paul moment yet.

[Lambsbread]

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 28.3
Pawlenty 21.0
Huntsman 16.0
Palin 8.9
Cain 5.7
Bachmann 5.5
Perry 4.3
Christie 2.1
Paul 2.1
Gingrich 1.7
Giuliani 1.2
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.4
J. Bush 0.3

OOF

[Mr. Morden]

Biden’s lead is growing…

Up: Biden
Down: Sanders

Democrats
Biden 32.4
Sanders 17.4
Harris 15.8
Buttigieg 12.2
Warren 7.8
O’Rourke 4.2
Yang 3.8
Gabbard 3.1
Booker 2.1

Republicans
Trump 89.5
Haley 6.4
Pence 5.3

Four years ago at this time:

Still no Kasich market on Betfair Exchange, so going with latest transaction on Ladbrokes.

Democrats
Clinton 75.8
Biden 9.1
Warren 9.1
O'Malley 7.5

Republicans
Bush 31.8
Rubio 20.8
Walker 20.8
Paul 8.4
Cruz 5.0
Huckabee 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Ladbrokes)
Carson 3.1
Christie 2.5
Perry 2.4
Fiorina 2.2

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2914101#msg2914101

Romney 30.1
Pawlenty 21.1
Huntsman 17.2
Palin 7.6
Perry 7.0
Bachmann 5.4
Cain 4.5
Christie 2.3
Giuliani 2.2
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 2.0
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.8
Johnson 0.4

Twelve years ago at this time on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1202737#msg1202737

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 28.8
Gore 10.5
Edwards 6.9
Richardson 3.0
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 25.9
Thompson 24.8
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.5
Gingrich 2.8
Huckabee 2.3
Paul 1.6
Rice 1.1
Cheney 0.4
Bloomberg 0.4
Brownback 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

[SaneDemocrat]

Warren is way too low.Buttigieg is a touch high.

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg rebounds, now edging Harris for 3rd:

Democrats
Biden 33.5
Sanders 16.8
Buttigieg 15.8
Harris 15.4
Warren 9.1
O’Rourke 4.5
Yang 4.3

Republicans
Trump 90.0
Haley 6.0
Pence 4.8

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 79.4
Sanders 9.5
Biden 8.1
O'Malley 7.2
Warren 7.0

Republicans
Bush 31.4
Rubio 26.0
Walker 22.2
Paul 10.5
Huckabee 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Ladbrokes)
Cruz 3.3
Fiorina 3.3
Carson 2.9
Christie 2.1
Perry 2.1

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2923313#msg2923313

Romney 29.8
Pawlenty 17.1
Hunstman 13.0
Perry 11.5
Palin 5.7
Bachmann 5.3
Cain 3.1
Giuliani 2.7
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.3
Gingrich 1.0
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

Twelve years ago at this point on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1208813#msg1208813

Democrats
Clinton 50.6
Obama 30.8
Gore 10.4
Edwards 6.0
Richardson 2.2
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 26.3
Giuliani 23.8
Romney 22.0
McCain 15.6
Paul 1.9
Huckabee 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1