latest Betfair odds

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Duckworth is a little undervalued here.

[The Other Castro]

Average spot of ultimate winner at this time? Fourth place. Who’s in fourth place? Duckworth. Checkmate KHIVE.

[BlueSwan]

I'm actually shocked that Palin was at 20% twelve years ago. I seem to recall her selection being a major surprise...

[Mr. Morden]

I'm actually shocked that Palin was at 20% twelve years ago. I seem to recall her selection being a major surprise...

This was a few weeks out from her ultimate selection, and as we got closer to decision day her share price gradually deflated, as the leaks seemed to suggest that she was no longer in the mix.

[ultraviolet]

Didn’t know Ryan was such a surprise

[Eraserhead]

Harris is still overvalued.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris over 50 again, and Duckworth passes Bass for 3rd place, as Bass drops hard….

Winning Individual
Biden 62.5
Trump 36.7

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 96.2
Clinton 2.0
M. Obama 0.5
Harris 0.4

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 96.2
Pence 3.0

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 54.3
Rice 15.4
Duckworth 9.8
Bass 8.9
Warren 5.6
Demings 3.8

[politics_king]

Bass did herself no favors with the Castro comments and Scientology appearances. I would think maybe she can get a cabinet position but Biden should look elsewhere. I believe the writing is on the wall and it's to pick Kamala Harris, it seems the majority of the Democratic Party has rallied around her and Warren.

[Mr. Morden]

Demings surging, now closing in on double digits….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 50.4
Rice 18.9
Duckworth 10.5
Demings 9.8
Warren 7.5
Bass 6.2

[Mr. Morden]

Well, that Demings surge seems to be over....

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 50.9
Rice 24.1
Duckworth 8.8
Warren 7.0
Demings 5.8
Bass 5.5

[Mr. Morden]

Harris and Rice both gain at everyone else’s expense.  Bass now down to 7th place, behind Michelle Obama….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 52.4
Rice 27.7
Duckworth 7.0
Warren 4.2
Demings 3.8
M. Obama 3.6
Bass 2.3

[NewYorkExpress]

Harris and Rice both gain at everyone else’s expense.  Bass now down to 7th place, behind Michelle Obama….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 52.4
Rice 27.7
Duckworth 7.0
Warren 4.2
Demings 3.8
M. Obama 3.6
Bass 2.3

I'd like to point out that Michelle Obama is the only person on that list who is not actually being vetted.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Trump 28.2
Warren 11.1
Pence 10.0
M. Obama 5.7
Sanders 4.2
Julian Castro 3.8
Bloomberg 3.7
Booker 3.1
H. Clinton 2.6
Ryan 2.3
Cuomo 2.2
Rubio 2.0
Haley 1.8
Biden 1.7
Harris 1.7
Kaine 1.7
Klobuchar 1.5

Wow!

[Sadader]

Trump 28.2
Warren 11.1
Pence 10.0
M. Obama 5.7
Sanders 4.2
Julian Castro 3.8
Bloomberg 3.7
Booker 3.1
H. Clinton 2.6
Ryan 2.3
Cuomo 2.2
Rubio 2.0
Haley 1.8
Biden 1.7
Harris 1.7
Kaine 1.7
Klobuchar 1.5

Wow!

IIRC he was at like 3%-4% in *February*. I got him at 33 to 1.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris drops below 50 again, as Rice surges.  Demings back up to 3rd place....

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 48.0
Rice 37.0
Demings 6.8
Whitmer 5.3
Duckworth 4.8
Warren 3.8

[Eraserhead]

I feel like it's probably going to be Rice.

[Real Texan Politics]

I feel like it's probably going to be Rice.

Me too, especially with all the recent delays. Maybe he was gonna select Kamala but reconsidered at the last minute which is why it got delayed. I'd say Rice or Whitmer at this point. Wouldn't be shocked if it was someone we never saw coming, or if it ends up being Kamala all along.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I feel like it's probably going to be Rice.

Please, no! He has to know better! Surely there was someone in the campaign trying to stop make the case of what a liability she could be, right?

[Mr. Morden]

Whitmer up to double digits....

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 50.0
Rice 30.8
Whitmer 12.4
Demings 5.1
Warren 5.1
Bass 4.8
Duckworth 4.8

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3377256#msg3377256

GOP VP nominee
Portman 30.5
Pawlenty 18.0
Rubio 10.9
Ryan 10.0
Thune 6.0
McDonnell 4.0
Jindal 3.8
Christie 2.6
Petraeus 2.0
Rice 2.0

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1658693#msg1658693

Dem. VP nominee
Bayh 27.5
Kaine 16.2
Sebelius 15.0
Biden 11.0
Clinton 8.8
Gephardt 8.6
Hagel 6.0
Clark 5.1
Schweitzer 4.0
Rendell 3.5

GOP VP nominee
Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 20.0
Ridge 15.0
Palin 14.0
Cantor 11.0
Crist 6.0
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Portman 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Harris drops as Whitmer gains a little more….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 44.4
Rice 28.0
Whitmer 14.9
Warren 4.8
Duckworth 4.2
M. Obama 3.8

[All Along The Watchtower]

M. Obama 3.8

?? ?? ?? ?? ??

[DINGO Joe]

Whitmer up to double digits....

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 50.0
Rice 30.8
Whitmer 12.4
Demings 5.1
Warren 5.1
Bass 4.8
Duckworth 4.8

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3377256#msg3377256

GOP VP nominee
Portman 30.5
Pawlenty 18.0
Rubio 10.9
Ryan 10.0
Thune 6.0
McDonnell 4.0
Jindal 3.8
Christie 2.6
Petraeus 2.0
Rice 2.0

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1658693#msg1658693

Dem. VP nominee
Bayh 27.5
Kaine 16.2
Sebelius 15.0
Biden 11.0
Clinton 8.8
Gephardt 8.6
Hagel 6.0
Clark 5.1
Schweitzer 4.0
Rendell 3.5

GOP VP nominee
Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 20.0
Ridge 15.0
Palin 14.0
Cantor 11.0
Crist 6.0
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Portman 4.0

So for 2012 and for both parties in 2008 it was the 4th place individual who was named VP.  Congrats VP Demings.  Tender will be very excited

[Mr. Morden]

A bit of a Duckworth bump today….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 45.0
Rice 27.4
Whitmer 12.8
Duckworth 7.5
Warren 4.8
Demings 4.3

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3379533#msg3379533

GOP VP nominee
Portman 29.4
Ryan 23.0
Pawlenty 18.0
Rubio 9.7
McDonnell 3.5
Thune 3.1
Christie 2.9
Jindal 2.8
Rice 1.7
Ayotte 1.1

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1661532#msg1661532

Dem. VP nominee
Bayh 28.0
Kaine 16.0
Sebelius 14.5
Biden 11.5
Clinton 6.1
Schweitzer 5.5
Clark 5.0
Hagel 5.0
Rendell 3.5
Zinni 3.5

GOP VP nominee
Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 21.0
Palin 12.5
Ridge 10.0
Crist 9.7
Lieberman 7.6
Cantor 7.2
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0

[NewYorkExpress]

M. Obama 3.8

?? ?? ?? ?? ??

I know. As much as I would for Michelle Obama to be VP (and then President from 2024-2032), she hates politics. I doubt she even approved of her husband running for the State Senate, let alone the U.S Senate or President.

[Mr. Morden]

Rice gains some more, now crossing 30.  And Duckworth’s bump from yesterday has faded, as Warren bumps her out of 4th place.

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 44.4
Rice 30.5
Whitmer 10.7
Warren 6.2
Duckworth 4.3
Demings 3.4

Eight years ago was the eve of Romney’s announcement that his VP pick was Paul Ryan.  In response to the hints coming from various leaks (like the fact that the announcement was being made on the USS Wisconsin), Ryan surged into a big lead on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3380671#msg3380671

GOP VP nomination
Ryan 75.0
Portman 27.0
Pawlenty 5.0
McDonnell 4.3
Rubio 3.9
Jindal 1.9
Christie 1.1
Rice 0.7

Then, less than an hour later, his lead was even bigger, as various news outlets were confirming he was the pick:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3380783#msg3380783

GOP VP nomination
Ryan 90.0
Rubio 1.3
Pawlenty 1.0
McDonnell 0.9
Portman 0.5

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1663469#msg1663469

Dem. VP nomination
Bayh 35.0
Kaine 19.0
Sebelius 12.1
Gephardt 12.0
Biden 11.9
Clinton 6.5
Schweitzer 5.5
Hagel 5.2
Clark 5.0
Richardson 4.0

GOP VP nomination
Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 22.0
Ridge 17.5
Palin 12.0
Lieberman 7.6
Cantor 7.2
Crist 5.2
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0