latest Betfair odds

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mr. Morden, could you also start listing the general election odds (assuming the market exists yet)?

[Mr. Morden]

The allegations against Biden have taken a bit of a toll on his nomination odds, with him back below 90% to win the nomination.  Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is up to 7.0 in the same market(!).

Democrats
Biden 86.4
Clinton 7.0
Cuomo 3.2
M. Obama 1.4
Sanders 1.0
Warren 0.7

Republicans
Trump 94.1
Pence 3.4
Haley 1.3
Romney 0.4
Ryan 0.3

Winning Individual
Trump 49.2
Biden 42.5
Clinton 3.0
Cuomo 2.2
Pence 1.1

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 96.2
Sanders 3.3
Biden 3.1

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Cruz 6.4
Kasich 1.6
Rubio 1.0
Ryan 0.7

Winning Individual
Clinton 73.5
Trump 24.8

[wbrocks67]

The odds, even as Trump was slipping the polls and Biden climbing, even before the Reade allegations really broke, still seemed way too pro-Trump and even had Biden at <90% for the nomination. Having HRC at 7% is just ridiculous. Even in some crazy scenario where Biden stepped down, HRC would never jump in. And Democrats wouldn't ask her too either.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What? Biden is a terrible candidate, but he's not completely bungling coronavirus, and so is favored.

[Mr. Morden]

Update….

Democrats
Biden 85.7
Clinton 7.0
Cuomo 2.7
M. Obama 2.0
Sanders 1.3
Harris 0.8

Republicans
Trump 93.3
Pence 3.4
Haley 1.1
Sasse 1.0
Romney 0.4

Winning Individual
Trump 49.2
Biden 42.9
Clinton 3.0
Cuomo 1.9
Pence 1.1

Dem. VP
Harris 30.5
Klobuchar 17.4
Warren 13.8
Whitmer 10.9
M. Obama 10.5
Abrams 6.2

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 94.3
Sanders 4.8
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 96.2
Ryan 1.1
Rubio 0.8
Bush 0.7
Kasich 0.4
Romney 0.4
Cruz 0.3

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.9
Trump 25.4
Sanders 4.2

Dem. VP
Castro 29.2
Kaine 20.4
Warren 12.2
Brown 8.8
Perez 8.8
Sanders 8.8

GOP VP
Gingrich 24.2
Kasich 19.3
Christie 12.8
Sessions 10.0
Rubio 8.1
Carson 7.5

[Mr. Morden]

VP update….

Dem. VP
Harris 36.7
Klobuchar 15.8
Warren 11.9
Whitmer 9.1
M. Obama 7.2
Abrams 5.5
Cortez Masto 4.3
Clinton 2.7
Duckworth 2.2
Rice 2.2

Four years ago at this point:

Dem. VP
Castro 26.7
Kaine 19.2
Warren 10.6
Sanders 8.3
Perez 8.0
Brown 7.7
Booker 6.9
Franken 5.1
Patrick 4.8
O’Malley 3.8

GOP VP
Gingrich 33.3
Christie 11.1
Kasich 8.3
Sessions 8.3
Ernst 6.9
Rubio 5.7
Carson 5.6
Fallin 5.0
Huntsman 5.0
Giuliani 4.3

The VP odds on Intrade eight years ago at this time:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3294812#msg3294812

GOP VP
Portman 18.0
Rubio 17.4
Christie 8.5
Daniels 6.3
McDonnell 5.5
Rice 5.2
Jindal 4.9
Pawlenty 4.9
Ryan 4.6
Thune 3.2
Huckabee 3.0
Toomey 2.5
Ayotte 2.0
Rand Paul 1.7
Santorum 1.6

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democrats
Biden 86.7
Clinton 6.4
Cuomo 1.6
M. Obama 1.6
Sanders 1.4
Harris 0.7
Warren 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Klobuchar 0.4

Republicans
Trump 92.3
Pence 3.4
Haley 1.3
Ryan 1.0
Sasse 1.0
Romney 0.6

Winning Individual
Trump 49.2
Biden 43.3
Clinton 2.6
Cuomo 1.4
Sanders 1.3
Pence 1.0

Dem. VP
Harris 36.8
Klobuchar 19.6
Warren 11.9
Whitmer 8.4
Abrams 5.5
M. Obama 5.1
Duckworth 4.5
Cortez Masto 4.0
Rice 3.2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris isn't gonna be Veep. Warren should be in first. Harris isnt all that great, or she would of been Prez

[Mr. Morden]

Winning Individual
Trump 49.2
Biden 42.9
Clinton 2.7
Cuomo 1.3
Sanders 1.1
Pence 1.1
M. Obama 0.7
Warren 0.7

Dem. VP
Harris 35.9
Klobuchar 15.8
Warren 13.1
Whitmer 9.5
M. Obama 6.4
Abrams 5.5
Cortez Masto 4.2
Demings 3.4
Rice 3.0

Four years ago today was the height of Newt-mania:

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.4
Trump 27.3
Sanders 2.8

Dem. VP
Castro 21.7
Kaine 18.9
Warren 14.3
Perez 10.0
Sanders 7.4
Brown 6.9
Booker 6.7
Franken 6.7
Patrick 4.5
Biden 3.6

GOP VP
Gingrich 40.0
Ernst 12.2
Sessions 8.3
Brown 6.7
Martinez 6.7
Carson 5.3
Kasich 4.8
Christie 4.2
Fallin 3.3
Rubio 3.1

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3306644#msg3306644

GOP VP
Rubio 23.2
Portman 19.0
Christie 7.4
Pawlenty 5.6
McDonnell 4.4
Daniels 4.0
Jindal 4.0
Rice 3.5
Ryan 3.5
Toomey 3.3
Ayotte 2.9
Thune 2.4
Huckabee 1.8
McMorris Rodgers 1.8
Rand Paul 1.7

[Mr. Morden]

Update….

Democrats
Biden 87.5
Clinton 4.5
M. Obama 1.9
Cuomo 1.4
Sanders 1.3
Bloomberg 0.9
Harris 0.7
Warren 0.6
Klobuchar 0.5

Republicans
Trump 92.3
Pence 3.6
Sasse 2.6
Haley 1.4

Winning Individual
Trump 48.9
Biden 43.8
Clinton 2.4
Cuomo 1.3
Sanders 1.0
Pence 0.9
M. Obama 0.6
Warren 0.5

Dem. VP
Harris 34.5
Klobuchar 18.9
Warren 13.1
Demings 7.8
Whitmer 7.5
Abrams 4.3
M. Obama 3.8
Cortez Masto 3.7
Duckworth 2.4
Rice 2.4

[Mr. Morden]

Warren now up to 2nd place in the VP market:

Democrats
Biden 90.9
Clinton 4.0
M. Obama 1.4
Sanders 1.0
Cuomo 0.7
Warren 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Harris 0.5
Klobuchar 0.4

Republicans
Trump 94.1
Pence 3.2
Sasse 2.6

Winning Individual
Trump 48.9
Biden 46.7
Clinton 1.9
Pence 1.1
Sanders 0.9

Dem. VP
Harris 38.7
Warren 15.8
Klobuchar 12.8
Demings 7.8
Whitmer 7.2
M. Obama 4.8
Abrams 4.3
Duckworth 2.9
Rice 2.9
Clinton 2.4

[Mr. Morden]

Biden and Trump now tied on winning individual, while Demings surges into second place in the VP market.

Winning Individual
Biden 47.6
Trump 47.6
Clinton 1.7
Pence 1.1
Sanders 1.0
Haley 0.7

Dem. VP
Harris 43.3
Demings 14.9
Warren 13.4
Klobuchar 6.8
Whitmer 6.0
Abrams 5.7
Booker 5.1
M. Obama 3.8

[Mr. Morden]

We now have a situation where 6 of the top 9 names in the VP market are black.

Winning Individual
Biden 48.0
Trump 46.7
Clinton 1.7
Pence 1.2
Sanders 0.9
Haley 0.8
Cuomo 0.6

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 91.7
Clinton 3.8
M. Obama 1.2
Sanders 0.9
Cuomo 0.7
Harris 0.6
Warren 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 92.3
Pence 3.0
Haley 1.9
Cotton 1.6
Cruz 0.9

Dem VP nominee
Harris 41.5
Demings 13.1
Warren 12.4
Abrams 7.0
Klobuchar 6.0
Bottoms 4.3
Whitmer 4.2
M. Obama 3.8
Rice 3.6
Duckworth 3.2

Four years ago at about this time:

Winning Individual
Clinton 68.0
Trump 27.0
Sanders 4.3

Dem. pres. nominee
Clinton 93.5
Sanders 5.3
Biden 2.4

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 97.1
Kasich 0.9
Rubio 0.8
Bush 0.5
Cruz 0.3
Ryan 0.2

Dem VP nominee
Castro 29.4
Warren 16.7
Kaine 16.1
Sanders 12.2
Booker 9.5
Perez 9.5

GOP VP nominee
Gingrich 36.2
Sessions 10.2
Ernst 7.7
Corker 7.4
Brown 6.2
Haley 5.9

Eight years ago at about this time:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3312357#msg3312357

Winning individual
Obama 57.3
Romney 38.8
Clinton 1.9
Paul 1.5

Dem. presidential nominee
Obama 97.3
Clinton 2.0
Biden 0.3

GOP presidential nominee
Romney 96.7
Paul 1.8
J. Bush 0.3
Huckabee 0.3

Dem. VP nominee
Biden 93.0
Clinton 5.6

GOP VP nominee
Portman 23.0
Rubio 22.3
Christie 8.0
Pawlenty 6.0
Daniels 3.9
Jindal 3.8
Ryan 3.4
McDonnell 2.9
Rice 2.7
Ayotte 2.5
Toomey 2.2
Thune 1.9
Rand Paul 1.6
McMorris Rodgers 1.6
Huckabee 1.4

[Mr. Morden]

Bottoms up to 4th place in the VP market:

Dem VP nominee
Harris 40.6
Demings 14.9
Warren 11.6
Bottoms 7.5
Abrams 6.5
Klobuchar 5.8
M. Obama 4.5
Whitmer 4.2
Rice 3.8

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

We now have a situation where 6 of the top 9 names in the VP market are black.

Winning Individual
Biden 48.0
Trump 46.7
Clinton 1.7
Pence 1.2
Sanders 0.9
Haley 0.8
Cuomo 0.6

The chances of Pence taking the Presidential Oath of Office on Inauguration Day are probably better than 1.2% (between Trump's health failing and and a 269-269 scenario with a hung House). But I assume the contract settles when the Electoral College casts its vote, if someone gets a majority.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden now over 50% to win the election:

Winning Individual
Biden 51.9
Trump 44.4
Clinton 1.4
Pence 1.1

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 94.1
Clinton 3.0
M. Obama 1.3
Sanders 0.7
Cuomo 0.5
Harris 0.3

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 90.9
Pence 3.7
Sasse 2.4
Haley 2.1

Dem VP nominee
Harris 41.9
Demings 16.3
Warren 10.7
Abrams 7.5
Bottoms 6.5
Klobuchar 5.1
Rice 3.8
Whitmer 3.8
M. Obama 3.7

[wbrocks67]

Biden has soared on ElectionBettingOdds in the past few days, and in the last day alone is up 3%.

Two weeks ago Trump was like 49% and Biden 41%.

Now Biden 49% and Trump 46%.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Biden has soared on ElectionBettingOdds in the past few days, and in the last day alone is up 3%.

Two weeks ago Trump was like 49% and Biden 41%.

Now Biden 49% and Trump 46%.

These past two weeks have probably been the worst for Trump since late December of 2018, when he was shutting down the government over his dumb wall, and the stock market was sinking due to the Fed raising interest rates.

This might, in fact, be worse. It's always hard to tell in these unprecedented times.

[Mr. Morden]

Winning Individual
Biden 54.3
Trump 42.9
Clinton 1.2
Pence 0.8

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 96.2
Clinton 2.7
M. Obama 0.8

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 93.3
Pence 2.4
Haley 1.6
Sasse 1.1
Romney 0.6

Dem VP nominee
Harris 42.9
Demings 17.7
Warren 10.5
Bottoms 8.4
Rice 7.5
Grisham 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Abrams 3.6

[Bidenworth2020]

Winning Individual
Biden 54.3
Trump 42.9
Clinton 1.2
Pence 0.8

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 96.2
Clinton 2.7
M. Obama 0.8

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 93.3
Pence 2.4
Haley 1.6
Sasse 1.1
Romney 0.6

Dem VP nominee
Harris 42.9
Demings 17.7
Warren 10.5
Bottoms 8.4
Rice 7.5
Grisham 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Abrams 3.6

Is there any specific reason why Biden has went from 80 to 96 on getting the nomination?

[Mr. Morden]

Winning Individual
Biden 54.3
Trump 42.9
Clinton 1.2
Pence 0.8

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 96.2
Clinton 2.7
M. Obama 0.8

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 93.3
Pence 2.4
Haley 1.6
Sasse 1.1
Romney 0.6

Dem VP nominee
Harris 42.9
Demings 17.7
Warren 10.5
Bottoms 8.4
Rice 7.5
Grisham 3.8
M. Obama 3.8
Abrams 3.6

Is there any specific reason why Biden has went from 80 to 96 on getting the nomination?

He hasn't been at 80 since March, when Sanders was still running.  He was still as low as ~85 about a month ago, and that was before he mathematically clinched the nomination, plus there were people who thought something might come of the Tara Reade allegation.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris gains even more in the VP market.  Getting closer and closer to 50….

Winning Individual
Biden 54.5
Trump 42.5
Clinton 1.1
Pence 0.9
Harris 0.6

Dem VP nominee
Harris 47.2
Demings 16.8
Rice 9.8
Warren 8.1
Bottoms 6.4
Grisham 3.7
M. Obama 3.0
Klobuchar 2.7

Four years ago at about this time:

Winning Individual
Clinton 74.6
Trump 22.3

Democratic VP nominee
Warren 27.3
Kaine 26.0
Castro 21.2
Perez 11.9
Brown 11.1

Republican VP nominee
Sessions 26.0
Gingrich 24.2
Kasich 12.2
Ernst 7.2
Christie 7.0

Eight years ago at about this time:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3328177#msg3328177

Winning Individual
Obama 53.4
Romney 42.6
Clinton 2.7
Paul 1.2

GOP VP nominee
Portman 22.6
Rubio 19.0
Pawlenty 8.5
Daniels 7.1
Christie 7.0
Jindal 5.8
Thune 4.1
Ryan 4.0
McMorris-Rodgers 3.2
Rice 2.5
Ayotte 1.9
Rand Paul 1.9
J. Bush 1.5
Huckabee 1.0
Martinez 1.0

[SingingAnalyst]

I'm surprised Trump is still at 42.5.

Seriously, does anyone NOT think Harris will be VP nominee?

[Ferguson97]

I'm surprised Trump is still at 42.5.

Seriously, does anyone NOT think Harris will be VP nominee?

A few Warren stans holding out hope

[Mr. Morden]

Winning Individual
Biden 55.2
Trump 41.9
Clinton 1.2
Pence 0.9
Harris 0.5

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 95.0
Clinton 2.9
M. Obama 1.0
Cuomo 0.5
Harris 0.5

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 94.1
Pence 2.6
Haley 1.1
Romney 0.8

Dem VP nominee
Harris 46.3
Demings 15.4
Rice 10.5
Warren 7.0
Bottoms 6.5
Abrams 3.7
Grisham 3.4
Duckworth 3.2
M. Obama 2.6

Four years ago today:

Winning Individual
Clinton 75.8
Trump 19.2

Democratic presidential nominee
Clinton 96.2
Biden 2.9
Sanders 1.4

Republican presidential nominee
Trump 90.9
Ryan 2.6
Bush 2.2
Cruz 1.3
Kasich 1.3
Rubio 1.1

Democratic VP nominee
Kaine 31.4
Warren 27.3
Castro 15.8
Perez 11.6
Brown 10.5

Republican VP nominee
Sessions 26.0
Gingrich 20.4
Kasich 12.5
Christie 10.5
Fallin 8.8