latest Betfair odds

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Such a fail for the identity politics people for the top 3 to be straight white men in their late 70s.

[Mr. Morden]

The Biden-Sanders seesaw continues, with Sanders re-taking the lead.

Up: Sanders, Bloomberg
Down: Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Clinton

Democrats
Sanders 34.5
Biden 33.9
Bloomberg 11.9
Warren 9.8
Buttigieg 5.5
Clinton 2.7
Yang 2.2
Klobuchar 1.0
M. Obama 0.7
Gabbard 0.4

Republicans
Trump 93.3
Pence 2.4
Haley 2.2

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 18.6
Biden 3.4

Republicans
Trump 44.8
Rubio 30.5
Cruz 12.2
Bush 11.4
Christie 3.3
Kasich 2.3
Romney 0.9
Ryan 0.7
Carson 0.6
Paul 0.2

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3166875#msg3166875

Romney 64.0
Gingrich 26.0
Paul 3.2
Daniels 1.9
Santorum 1.6
J. Bush 1.4
Christie 0.5
Ryan 0.5

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1407590#msg1407590

DEMOCRATS
Clinton 67.0
Obama 31.4
Gore 0.9
Edwards 0.8
Richardson 0.1

REPUBLICANS
McCain 50.9
Romney 25.5
Guiliani 16.3
Huckabee 4.1
Paul 1.7
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.4
Thompson 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders expands his lead over Biden…

Up: Sanders, Bloomberg
Down: Biden, Warren

Democrats
Sanders 37.8
Biden 31.4
Bloomberg 13.1
Warren 8.4
Buttigieg 5.1
Clinton 3.0
Yang 2.3
Klobuchar 1.0
M. Obama 0.7
Patrick 0.4

Republicans
Trump 93.3
Pence 2.4
Haley 2.2

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 19.3
Biden 2.5

Republicans
Trump 45.5
Rubio 31.4
Cruz 11.4
Bush 11.1
Christie 2.4
Kasich 1.5
Ryan 0.9
Romney 0.7
Carson 0.5
Paul 0.4

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3169150#msg3169150

Romney 76.4
Gingrich 15.7
Paul 3.1
Santorum 1.4
Daniels 1.0
J. Bush 0.7
Christie 0.6
Ryan 0.3

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1412800#msg1412800

DEMOCRATS
Clinton 63.0
Obama 37.0
Gore 1.0
Edwards 0.7
Richardson 0.1

REPUBLICANS
McCain 55.0
Romney 28.4
Guiliani 9.4
Huckabee 3.1
Paul 1.7
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.4
Thompson 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Warren and Buttigieg still dropping, with Warren now less than half the share price of Bloomberg.

Up: Biden, Bloomberg
Down: Warren, Buttigieg

Democrats
Sanders 37.8
Biden 33.5
Bloomberg 14.5
Warren 5.5
Buttigieg 4.0
Clinton 3.0
Yang 2.0
Klobuchar 1.7
M. Obama 0.8
Patrick 0.5

Republicans
Trump 91.7
Pence 2.4
Haley 2.2

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 19.3
Biden 2.5

Republicans
Trump 47.6
Rubio 30.0
Cruz 11.9
Bush 10.7
Christie 1.8
Kasich 1.5
Romney 1.0
Ryan 1.0
Carson 0.7
Paul 0.4

[Skill and Chance]

Very ironic that Bloomberg now appears to be blocking Biden.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton is now tied with Buttigieg for 5th place to win the Dem. nomination.

Democrats
Sanders 38.1
Biden 32.4
Bloomberg 14.5
Warren 5.7
Buttigieg 3.8
Clinton 3.8
Yang 2.4
Klobuchar 1.9
M. Obama 0.8
Steyer 0.5

Republicans
Trump 92.3
Haley 2.3
Pence 1.6
Romney 0.8
Sasse 0.7
Kasich 0.5
Ryan 0.5

Iowa
Sanders 57.9
Biden 28.8
Buttigieg 12.8
Warren 7.4

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 20.0
Biden 4.3

Republicans
Trump 50.3
Rubio 31.8
Bush 10.0
Cruz 10.0
Christie 1.8
Kasich 1.5
Carson 1.1
Romney 0.8
Ryan 0.8
Paul 0.4

Iowa Dems
Clinton 69.0
Sanders 33.3

Iowa GOP
Trump 66.7
Cruz 39.1
Rubio 6.7

[GeorgiaModerate]

Clinton is now tied with Buttigieg for 5th place to win the Dem. nomination.

Crazy.

[Mr. Morden]

Last update before we get tonight’s Selzer poll.  If that poll moves things a lot, then I might post another update tonight, or else do so tomorrow.

Bloomberg and Warren gain a bit at the expense of Biden and Sanders.  And Trump hits 95 in the GOP market.

Up: Bloomberg, Warren, Trump
Down: Sanders, Biden

Democrats
Sanders 37.1
Biden 31.4
Bloomberg 15.4
Warren 6.8
Clinton 4.0
Buttigieg 3.0
Yang 2.6
Klobuchar 2.1
M. Obama 0.7
Patrick 0.4

Republicans
Trump 95.0
Pence 2.6
Haley 1.9

Iowa
Sanders 60.0
Biden 27.4
Buttigieg 7.8
Warren 7.0

Four years ago today (which was actually the day of the Iowa caucus, but this was many hours before the caucuses started):

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 17.4
Biden 3.3

Republicans
Trump 50.8
Rubio 35.6
Cruz 9.5
Bush 8.4
Christie 1.9
Kasich 1.8
Romney 0.9
Carson 0.7
Ryan 0.5
Paul 0.2

Iowa Dems
Clinton 79.4
Sanders 30.0

Iowa GOP
Trump 66.2
Cruz 30.8
Rubio 7.7

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Such a fail for the identity politics people for the top 3 to be straight white men in their late 70s.

It says more about Obama (and the party's) failure to build a solid Democratic bench.

[Mr. Morden]

Last update before the caucus…

Up: Sanders
Down: Biden, Bloomberg

Dem. nomination
Sanders 39.6
Biden 30.5
Bloomberg 14.1
Warren 6.5
Buttigieg 3.8
Clinton 3.6
Yang 2.3
Klobuchar 1.4
Patrick 0.8
M. Obama 0.7

Iowa
Sanders 65.6
Biden 20.8
Buttigieg 9.8
Warren 6.0

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Such a fail for the identity politics people for the top 3 to be straight white men in their late 70s.

It says more about Obama (and the party's) failure to build a solid Democratic bench.

Aren't Harris, Booker, Klobuchar and Warren a solid Democratic bench?

[Mr. Morden]

Biden to win the nomination has taken a serious pounding in the last few hours, dropping from ~30 to ~20.  Buttigieg and Warren are the beneficiaries.

Up: Buttigieg, Warren
Down: Biden, Sanders

Dem. nomination
Sanders 37.5
Biden 20.8
Bloomberg 13.4
Warren 10.5
Buttigieg 9.2
Clinton 3.4
Yang 2.2
Klobuchar 1.0
M. Obama 0.6
Gabbard 0.5

Iowa market still low volume and adds up to way over 100, but Biden drops to fourth place in the market to win the state:

Iowa
Sanders 70.8
Buttigieg 32.4
Warren 6.4
Biden 1.7

[Mr. Morden]

A lot of fluidity now, and the total is notably above 100 at the moment.  Since last night’s response to the early results, only Warren has really had a notable decline, while Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg, and Buttigieg have all gained.  Of course, Biden is still well below where he was before we got any caucus results or entrance poll.

Up: Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg
Down: Warren

Dem. nomination
Sanders 41.9
Biden 21.7
Bloomberg 16.8
Buttigieg 10.5
Warren 8.1
Clinton 3.4
Yang 1.9
Klobuchar 1.0
M. Obama 0.6
Patrick 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

Now that a majority of Iowa results have been released, both Bloomberg and Buttigieg have surged, with Bloomberg now passing Biden for 2nd place…

Up: Bloomberg, Buttigieg
Down: Sanders, Biden, Warren, Yang

Sanders 38.1
Bloomberg 18.3
Biden 16.8
Buttigieg 14.5
Warren 6.2
Clinton 3.2
Yang 0.8
M. Obama 0.7
Klobuchar 0.5

[Ljube]

Biden is Jebbed!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Betfair overreacts even more than Atlas does.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Sanders, Bloomberg
Down: Biden, Buttigieg

Sanders 40.9
Bloomberg 19.3
Biden 14.9
Buttigieg 11.4
Warren 6.2
Clinton 3.0
Yang 1.0
M. Obama 0.8
Klobuchar 0.6
Patrick 0.4
Brown 0.4
Gabbard 0.3
Castro 0.3

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 18.6

Republicans
Rubio 56.8
Trump 24.8
Cruz 13.8
Bush 6.4
Kasich 1.2
Christie 0.8
Ryan 0.5
Romney 0.3
Carson 0.2
Fiorina 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Last update before tonight’s debate: Bloomberg hits 20, and Buttigieg is now narrowly ahead of Biden for 3rd place….

Up: Bloomberg, Buttigieg
Down: Sanders, Biden

Sanders 38.1
Bloomberg 20.5
Buttigieg 14.1
Biden 13.8
Warren 5.4
Clinton 2.6
M. Obama 0.8
Yang 0.8
Patrick 0.5
Klobuchar 0.4
Brown 0.4
Gabbard 0.3
Kerry 0.2
Steyer 0.2

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 18.3

Republicans
Rubio 50.3
Trump 27.0
Cruz 13.4
Bush 7.8
Kasich 2.2
Christie 1.9
Ryan 1.1
Carson 0.8
Romney 0.2
Fiorina 0.2

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Biden's honestly right now objectively good to bet on. Also, democrats winning the election is very low right now, and underrated.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, for the record, winning party is now:
Republicans 61.5
Democrats 41.4

I guess still low enough volume that it totals over 100.  The Dem. primary market doesn't appear to total over 100 anymore, unless you count all the people down at 0.1, who I didn't list.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Sanders drops a bit, and Biden and Buttigieg swap places.  But otherwise, very little movement for anyone.

Democrats
Sanders 37.1
Bloomberg 20.8
Biden 14.1
Buttigieg 13.8
Warren 5.1
Clinton 2.9
M. Obama 0.7
Yang 0.7
Gabbard 0.6
Klobuchar 0.5
Patrick 0.5
Brown 0.4
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Trump 96.2
Haley 1.3
Pence 1.3
Weld 0.8

New Hampshire
Sanders 71.4
Buttigieg 32.4

[Mr. Morden]

Biden’s been taking even more of a hit in the last couple of days, now down to just 10.5….

Up: Sanders, Klobuchar
Down: Biden, Warren

Dem. nomination
Sanders 40.2
Bloomberg 21.3
Buttigieg 14.1
Biden 10.5
Warren 4.0
Clinton 3.0
Klobuchar 1.6
Yang 0.7
M. Obama 0.5
Patrick 0.4
Brown 0.4
Gabbard 0.3
Steyer 0.3
Kerry 0.2

New Hampshire
Sanders 78.3
Buttigieg 23.6

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 20.0

Republicans
Rubio 43.7
Trump 30.0
Cruz 13.8
Bush 10.5
Kasich 2.9
Christie 2.1
Romney 0.9
Ryan 0.5
Carson 0.4
Fiorina 0.1

[Ljube]

Biden now and Bush then. Same odds. Same result.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden and Buttigieg are good money.

Sanders has a health problem, and these two are a big chance.

[Mr. Morden]

Last update before NH results shows Bloomberg still gaining….

Up: Bloomberg, Klobuchar
Down: Buttigieg, Biden

Democrats
Sanders 40.6
Bloomberg 25.4
Buttigieg 12.2
Biden 8.1
Warren 3.8
Clinton 3.4
Klobuchar 2.9
M. Obama 0.7
Yang 0.7
Gabbard 0.4
Patrick 0.4
Brown 0.4

Republicans
Trump 96.2
Pence 1.7
Haley 1.1
Weld 0.6

New Hampshire
Sanders 82.4
Buttigieg 19.6