(Very) early 2020 Senate predictions.

[Skill and Chance]

Steve Daines is a very weak incumbent, much more so than Ernst or even Gardner. He's basically a Roy Blunt waiting to happen, and since Democrats will likely do better in MT in 2020 than they did in 2016, Daines will be in big trouble - even if Trump wins nationally. Quist or Bullock could both beat him, and even most other Democrats will give him a race for his money. He has virtually no crossover appeal.

Also keep in mind that Daines was the guy who encouraged Gianforte to run for the special election - we'll see how that turns out.

Why are you confident in this for 2020?  I could see it in 2024 if the R nominee is Pence or just someone less populist than Trump in general.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will pickup Iowa (need a top tier candidate)  NC, AK(if Berkowitz or Begich runs), and CO

[MT Treasurer]

Steve Daines is a very weak incumbent, much more so than Ernst or even Gardner. He's basically a Roy Blunt waiting to happen, and since Democrats will likely do better in MT in 2020 than they did in 2016, Daines will be in big trouble - even if Trump wins nationally. Quist or Bullock could both beat him, and even most other Democrats will give him a race for his money. He has virtually no crossover appeal.

Also keep in mind that Daines was the guy who encouraged Gianforte to run for the special election - we'll see how that turns out.

Why are you confident in this for 2020?  I could see it in 2024 if the R nominee is Pence or just someone less populist than Trump in general.

Trump's basically been governing like a generic Republican so far, and by the end of his first term voters will likely (and rightfully) not view him as a populist anymore IMO, so any crossover appeal should be gone. Then you add to this the fact that Clinton won't be on the ballot and that there is a built-in anti-incumbency bias in the state, and it's hard to see him doing better.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems need to focus on Tillis, Gardner and Ernst and hopefully Berkowitz or Begich runs in 2020.  Montana should be on the list but AK should be considered as well.

[Kamala]

How about Kentucky? It seems high time for McConnell to retire, especially if Republicans manage to lose net seats in 2018 or the reputation of the Republican Party is at Bush 2008-levels. Andy Beshear might be able to make the race competitive.

[_]

Louisiana, West Virginia, Kansas and Mississippi as likely Republican but NH as safe Democratic? What the hell? Even Justice vs. Capito would be likely R at best for Dems, and I don't see anyone on the Democratic bench who can flip the other three states. Roberts looks likely to retire, and JBE is running for reelection in 2019, so that implies that a Senate race is a no-go.

I only use the "Safe" category if I think there is zero chance of this seat flipping. I could definitely see all the "Likely" and "Lean" states becoming competitive, and if anyone can lose in these "red" states like LA, it's the Republican Party. Plus, I believe 2020 will be a (much?) better year for Ds in the Senate than 2018, and they will probably put up top-tier candidates in all of these states and try to expand the map.

Is NH Safe Dem because of Shaheen or because the NH GOP has no capable Senate Candidates?

[_]

Louisiana, West Virginia, Kansas and Mississippi as likely Republican but NH as safe Democratic? What the hell? Even Justice vs. Capito would be likely R at best for Dems, and I don't see anyone on the Democratic bench who can flip the other three states. Roberts looks likely to retire, and JBE is running for reelection in 2019, so that implies that a Senate race is a no-go.

I only use the "Safe" category if I think there is zero chance of this seat flipping. I could definitely see all the "Likely" and "Lean" states becoming competitive, and if anyone can lose in these "red" states like LA, it's the Republican Party. Plus, I believe 2020 will be a (much?) better year for Ds in the Senate than 2018, and they will probably put up top-tier candidates in all of these states and try to expand the map.

Is NH Safe Dem because of Shaheen or because the NH GOP has no capable Senate Candidates?

If you haven't gotten the memo yet, it's because he thinks Republicans can't win New Hampshire under any circumstances, and that the Republican party should just cede the entire state to the Democrats.

I'd like to hear his rationale for this.

[This account no longer in use.]

Louisiana, West Virginia, Kansas and Mississippi as likely Republican but NH as safe Democratic? What the hell? Even Justice vs. Capito would be likely R at best for Dems, and I don't see anyone on the Democratic bench who can flip the other three states. Roberts looks likely to retire, and JBE is running for reelection in 2019, so that implies that a Senate race is a no-go.

I only use the "Safe" category if I think there is zero chance of this seat flipping. I could definitely see all the "Likely" and "Lean" states becoming competitive, and if anyone can lose in these "red" states like LA, it's the Republican Party. Plus, I believe 2020 will be a (much?) better year for Ds in the Senate than 2018, and they will probably put up top-tier candidates in all of these states and try to expand the map.

Is NH Safe Dem because of Shaheen or because the NH GOP has no capable Senate Candidates?

If you haven't gotten the memo yet, it's because he thinks Republicans can't win New Hampshire under any circumstances, and that the Republican party should just cede the entire state to the Democrats.

I'd like to hear his rationale for this.

He has this theory about how "angry NH women" are running the state, and how it'll never vote Republican again. I believe it started as a coping method for Scott Brown's loss in 2014.

[_]

Louisiana, West Virginia, Kansas and Mississippi as likely Republican but NH as safe Democratic? What the hell? Even Justice vs. Capito would be likely R at best for Dems, and I don't see anyone on the Democratic bench who can flip the other three states. Roberts looks likely to retire, and JBE is running for reelection in 2019, so that implies that a Senate race is a no-go.

I only use the "Safe" category if I think there is zero chance of this seat flipping. I could definitely see all the "Likely" and "Lean" states becoming competitive, and if anyone can lose in these "red" states like LA, it's the Republican Party. Plus, I believe 2020 will be a (much?) better year for Ds in the Senate than 2018, and they will probably put up top-tier candidates in all of these states and try to expand the map.

Is NH Safe Dem because of Shaheen or because the NH GOP has no capable Senate Candidates?

If you haven't gotten the memo yet, it's because he thinks Republicans can't win New Hampshire under any circumstances, and that the Republican party should just cede the entire state to the Democrats.

I'd like to hear his rationale for this.

He has this theory about how "angry NH women" are running the state, and how it'll never vote Republican again. I believe it started as a coping method for Scott Brown's loss in 2014.

Scott Brown lost because he's a Carpetbagger, not because of angry women.  If the GOP picked a decent candidate actually from NH they could have won, not some one time star from Massachusetts.

[TheSaint250]

My predictions are kind of boring.

By the way, in Maine, I assumed Susan Collins would retire.

[TheSaint250]

My predictions are kind of boring.

By the way, in Maine, I assumed Susan Collins would retire.

My issue with Maine being lean Dem if Collins retires is who runs? Pingree doesn't appear strong at all, and has consistently underperformed.

Honestly, I'm not too sure, but any average Democrat at that point, even Pingree, would most likely be favored in a Collins-free election (unless someone well-known and extremely powerful and well-liked statewide runs as a Republican).  I still believe Maine will one day trend GOP, but a Senate election as early as 2020 will not be proof of that.

[TheSaint250]

My predictions are kind of boring.

By the way, in Maine, I assumed Susan Collins would retire.

My issue with Maine being lean Dem if Collins retires is who runs? Pingree doesn't appear strong at all, and has consistently underperformed.

Honestly, I'm not too sure, but any average Democrat at that point, even Pingree, would most likely be favored in a Collins-free election (unless someone well-known and extremely powerful and well-liked statewide runs as a Republican).  I still believe Maine will one day trend GOP, but a Senate election as early as 2020 will not be proof of that.

If exit polls are to be believed, Maine joins a rare slate of states which seem to favor a GOP age-gap advantage, along with Iowa and Kentucky (where the difference is insignificant but makes sense considering how their older generations are used to Democratic rule in the state). In fact, Maine seems to be the only state where Trump won the <45 vote while losing the >45 vote. That gives me pause when Democrats say OMG THE COLLINS SEAT IS OURS WHEN SHE RETIRES

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/maine/president

Huh. I never knew that. That's something I'll look out for.  Thanks

[KingSweden]

Louisiana, West Virginia, Kansas and Mississippi as likely Republican but NH as safe Democratic? What the hell? Even Justice vs. Capito would be likely R at best for Dems, and I don't see anyone on the Democratic bench who can flip the other three states. Roberts looks likely to retire, and JBE is running for reelection in 2019, so that implies that a Senate race is a no-go.

I only use the "Safe" category if I think there is zero chance of this seat flipping. I could definitely see all the "Likely" and "Lean" states becoming competitive, and if anyone can lose in these "red" states like LA, it's the Republican Party. Plus, I believe 2020 will be a (much?) better year for Ds in the Senate than 2018, and they will probably put up top-tier candidates in all of these states and try to expand the map.

Is NH Safe Dem because of Shaheen or because the NH GOP has no capable Senate Candidates?

If you haven't gotten the memo yet, it's because he thinks Republicans can't win New Hampshire under any circumstances, and that the Republican party should just cede the entire state to the Democrats.

I'd like to hear his rationale for this.

You really don't

[windjammer]

wow, there will be so few competitive seats

[TheSaint250]

TheSaint250, who are the Democratic candidates in Montana and Alaska in your scenario? Also, I agree with PNM that the Maine race could very well be a ND-SEN 2012 redux or so if Republicans play their cards right. But it would be tough for sure.

Not sure why anyone would rate CO a Tossup, given the tendency of blue states to oust Republican Senators. There was basically no split-ticket voting in Democratic states in 2016, plus someone like Hickenlooper might even do better than the Democratic presidential candidate there IMO.

I don't have any specific candidates in Montana and Alaska. I just think that without anyone extremely notable (and there doesn't seem to be something like that occurring; of course, we are 3 years away), Daines and Sullivan aren't in real danger of losing their seats.  

In regards to CO, it's too early to say for sure which way the state will swing in regards to the Senate, but you certainly have a point about the split-ticket voting.  Gardner, though, doesn't seem to be in such trouble politically or as well-known to an annoying level nationally to call the race lean D just yet.  If Hickenlooper ran, he would most likely beat Gardner barring a scandal or massive GOP wave.  Also, Gardner's approval ratings, while not amazing, are relatively average.

[windjammer]

TheSaint250, who are the Democratic candidates in Montana and Alaska in your scenario? Also, I agree with PNM that the Maine race could very well be a ND-SEN 2012 redux or so if Republicans play their cards right. But it would be tough for sure.

Not sure why anyone would rate CO a Tossup, given the tendency of blue states to oust Republican Senators. There was basically no split-ticket voting in Democratic states in 2016, plus someone like Hickenlooper might even do better than the Democratic presidential candidate there IMO.

I don't have any specific candidates in Montana and Alaska. I just think that without anyone extremely notable (and there doesn't seem to be something like that occurring; of course, we are 3 years away), Daines and Sullivan aren't in real danger of losing their seats.  

In regards to CO, it's too early to say for sure which way the state will swing in regards to the Senate, but you certainly have a point about the split-ticket voting.  Gardner, though, doesn't seem to be in such trouble politically or as well-known to an annoying level nationally to call the race lean D just yet.  If Hickenlooper ran, he would most likely beat Gardner barring a scandal or massive GOP wave.  Also, Gardner's approval ratings, while not amazing, are relatively average.

I believe of the 8 Republican Senators (before Daines) who represented Montana since 1890, 7 lost reelection after one term (except Burns, who I believe was the only Republican ever to serve two terms). Daines could easily be no. 8, and I hope Republicans don't take this race for granted. MT Democrats have a strong bench and ground game, and the state is pretty Democratic-friendly down ballot. This race is a pure Tossup.

Granted, Alaska is a wildcard. Someone like Begich or Walker would probably make this a Tossup, but I'm not entirely sure. Alaska likes competitive Senate races.

The thing about Gardner's approval ratings is that they will crater once the campaign begins and the Democrats start pouring money into the race. I like him, but he is way to the right of his state and will basically have little to zero crossover appeal on election day.

@Windjammer: This may appear to be the case right now, but I think by election day Democrats will have fielded strong candidates in most of these "red" states.

Oh I quite agree with you on that. Democrats are quite good for recruiting wave insurance candiates, but it would need a wave for democrats to win something else than NC or CO. And I don't expect 2020 to be a democratic wave at all.

[This account no longer in use.]

In a neutral year (which it will almost certainly not be):

[Don Vito Corleone]

Why does everyone always forget about Kentucky?

[Hoosier_Nick]

If Collins does indeed run for re-election, R-Likely. But for now I'm sticking with this map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems get CO and NC and Iowa and KY and perhaps GA are next vulnerable, Schweizer isn't running in Mnt

[MT Treasurer]

Oh I quite agree with you on that. Democrats are quite good for recruiting wave insurance candiates, but it would need a wave for democrats to win something else than NC or CO. And I don't expect 2020 to be a democratic wave at all.

I don't think 2020 will be a D wave either, but Daines (and Sullivan, I guess) could certainly lose even in a neutral or even a good Republican year. The margins in these two states will probably be closer in 2020 as well. Also keep in mind that Bullock won by 4 while Trump won by 20. The same could definitely happen again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oh I quite agree with you on that. Democrats are quite good for recruiting wave insurance candiates, but it would need a wave for democrats to win something else than NC or CO. And I don't expect 2020 to be a democratic wave at all.

I don't think 2020 will be a D wave either, but Daines (and Sullivan, I guess) could certainly lose even in a neutral or even a good Republican year. The margins in these two states will probably be closer in 2020 as well. Also keep in mind that Bullock won by 4 while Trump won by 20. The same could definitely happen again.

Again, the ethics of Trump is yet to be determined by the FBI investigation, and the GOP is assuming that Trump is innocent.  Let's not rush the investigation, the Democratic maps are fairly Democratic friendly right now, due to the Trump ethics.  

Dems will be also looking at GA, with Ossoff, KY with McConnell and Susan Collins in ME, as well as Joni Ernst, aside from Daines and Sullivan.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Oh I quite agree with you on that. Democrats are quite good for recruiting wave insurance candiates, but it would need a wave for democrats to win something else than NC or CO. And I don't expect 2020 to be a democratic wave at all.

I don't think 2020 will be a D wave either, but Daines (and Sullivan, I guess) could certainly lose even in a neutral or even a good Republican year. The margins in these two states will probably be closer in 2020 as well. Also keep in mind that Bullock won by 4 while Trump won by 20. The same could definitely happen again.

Again, the ethics of Trump is yet to be determined by the FBI investigation, and the GOP is assuming that Trump is innocent.  Let's not rush the investigation, the Democratic maps are fairly Democratic friendly right now, due to the Trump ethics.  

Dems will be also looking at GA, with Ossoff, KY with McConnell and Susan Collins in ME, as well as Joni Ernst, aside from Daines and Sullivan.

You really think they'd go after McConnell? Sure, he's unpopular, but KY is trending Republican fast (along with Iowa, for that matter), and would have little chance of being defeated barring a HUGE wave.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's early and no one knows about impeachment talk, yes its a Democratic friendly map.  We will see after 2018 how big the wave is.  However, Daines is safe and Ernst isn't Grassley.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump winning a narrow victory is probably not gonna happen again.  But, the Senate elections are gonna be close.