2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[smoltchanov]

Shame that there aren't any better candidates in Virginia other than "fiscally conservative" Northam. Are there any other solidly progressive people who could run?

"Fiscally conservative" is not always bad. On the contrary - it's frequently rather good. And while Virginia gradually moves left - even Vermont preferred at least "somewhat fiscally conservative" candidate this year...

[smoltchanov]

TN-2018: State Sen. Mark Green (R) launches his candidacy:
http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/05/sen-mark-green-launches-bid-governor/96205260/

He was also one of the first people to interrogate Saddam Hussein in Iraq after he was captured.  I won't endorse for a while, but I could potentially vote for him in the primary.

What's his place on the spectrum? More like Haslam or more like Blackburn?

It seems Nevada Republicans, as expected, will run away from the remarkably popular Brian Sandoval legacy.

Dems have an opportunity here!

Mind bogglingly stupid of them. Blue state Repubs should look at NV 14 and salivate

Mark Green has a 90% rating from the ACU, so probably closer to Blackburn.

Haslam is more my cup of tea, but that sounds appropriate for a Tennessee Republican.

Not my type either. Haslam and Alexander are absolutely fine to me, but far-rightists - never. Even in conservative states..

[smoltchanov]

CT: First Selectman of Trumbull Tim Herbst (R) is in.

He's probably one of the strongest Republicans that will run, and could very well be the next Governor of Connecticut.

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-tim-herbst-running-governor-20170113-story.html

Seems to be a very agressive "bulldog" and fiscal conservative. It would be interesting to know his views on social issues - after all Connecticut is not a socially conservative state.

[smoltchanov]

SC: Dem Chair Jaime Harrison is considering a run.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/governors-races-democrats-rift-235951

Not to derail the thread, but that article was just... so Politico.

"We talked to one Bluedog Chair and he said something juicy about needing Moderate Heroes, so we shoehorned a bunch of other southern moderate Dem chair quotes that don't really say the same thing into saying the same thing. Also Our Revolution is an omnicapable Shadow DNC that's going to form a third party."

In the South (except for minority-majority districts) and some other areas you really need Blue Dogs and "Moderate Heroes". Of course - if you want to win at least sometimes. If not, and you are satisfied by only "making the case" - well, then run Berniecrats in every district, and be politically insignificant.... Let Republicans do what they want)))))

[smoltchanov]

Blue Dog =! Moderate Hero in each and every case. I'm perfectly fine with populists who like guns and flags. Hell, I like guns and flags. But thinking like, "The only Dems who are gonna get elected in the South will be Republican Lite^TM" Is deeply silly, and contradicts the history of the region.

I never said that Blue Dogs = Moderate Heroes. And i love Southern populists, despite my different views (i am more liberal on social issues then on economy). The modern history, however, shows, that "the only Democrats elected RECENTLY from non-minority-majority "really Southern" districts (i can't to consider districts of Southern Florida, Northern Virginia and Research Triangle as "really Southern") are conservatively inclined (not really "Republican-lite", as they are much closer to the center, but with tangible conservative streak on many issues)". People like McIntyre, Barrow and their like. It's another thing that even that became not enough frequently.

[smoltchanov]

Oh Jesus, another Kennedy? No thank you!

Why not? I am not flaming liberal, but i like Kennedy's since 1963))))

[smoltchanov]

^ No. Alabama's Democratic party essentially became "Black party", and mirrors national one ideologically. Both these facts were NOT true 30 years ago. So - not surprising...

[smoltchanov]

Former Kansas Agriculture Commissioner and State Rep, (currently a farmer) Josh Svaty announced his campaign for governor in Black Wolf Kansas today. The first article covers his announcement, while the second one discusses reactions to it, including that of yours truly.

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article150832357.html

http://www.salina.com/news/local/crowd-pleased-to-hear-svaty-plans-to-run/article_e75a4fce-1251-5554-8910-1ec8ccec1b77.html

Who is better between Svaty and Brewer? As far as i see it - we have relatively rural candidate (Svaty) against very urban (Brewer) here. But what abouth geography, ideology and so on? Brewer is from Wichita.Svaty - ?

[smoltchanov]

2 VPH Thanks a lot for detailed answer! Well, i doubt that a "fiery progressive" will stand a good chance to win in Kansas. Of two Svaty seems to be better to me (despite me being pro-choice)

[smoltchanov]

Dems really need to give rural/red state pro-life Democrats a break. I'm pro choice but sheesh know your audiences

Yeah. Simple idea of running solidly pro-choice Democrat in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama causes an uncontrolled  burst of laughter in me..

[smoltchanov]

Also, if Hogan is going down in MD, it probably means Sununu in NH is in trouble. He's too conservative for NH.

Well, the irony is that Sununu is almost "too liberal" for New Hampshire Republican primary voters. All his opponents in 2016 primary were more conservative then he is, some - very much so...

[smoltchanov]

NYS Assemblyman Brian Kolb has launched a 2018 campaign to presumably face Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Conservative Republican can't win NY governorship. If only Democrats nominate "their own version" of Roy Moore...

[smoltchanov]

Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

He's going to be tough to beat for sure.

Belmentum!

Also.... hopefully a county wide landslide for Edwards against a nobody Republican helps make state legislature gains. The LA legislature is not as lopsided as most red states

In NO or BR suburbs - quite possible. But Democrats almost surely will have problems in rapidly swinging to the right Acadiana (and around it), where Republicans are favored to gain seats after "veterans" retire because of term limits. Clinton had abysmal percentages (lower then 30, in some cases - about 10) in many districts there, and even local Democrats will be hard pressed.

[smoltchanov]

Bye bye Walker (among others)

https://www.twitter.com/jaredleopold/status/973745176035381248

And yet Scott and Baker seem to be extremely entrenched, and their Democratic opposition so far is very weak. So, candidate views and qualities still matter, not PVI only...

[smoltchanov]

^ Exactly so.

[smoltchanov]

Well, what alternative exist for centrists (real), who are basically ignored and villified in BOTH major political parties? To run as Indies.....

[smoltchanov]

Once again, Republican primary voters are hating on congresscritters - Diane Black is doing so poorly in this primary right now.

Best Tenn political news of the year. Lee is Uber-conservative, and scary to me, but Black is just an icky $wamp creature. So glad she lost!

Lee - Uber-conservative? Most analyst considered him and Boyd as 2 representatives of "moderate" camp: a Haslam-style pragmatic conservatives. That's the best, what can be expected from present day Republican party in this state.

[smoltchanov]

What is Bill Lee like? Is he far right? I really hope Karl Dean makes this a race.

Less far right then Diane Black (that's sure), but still conservative enough (no one else can win Republican primary in Tennessee)

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, i stressed, that all characteristics were relative: Boyd was the most moderate  (as frequently happend before, coming from the East), while Black - the most reactionary. Lee, IMHO, is somewhere "in between".... But. social conservatism and religiosity of Republican nominee in southern state is, surely, nothing new. I would be much more surprsed if it was NOT so...

[smoltchanov]

But. social conservatism and religiosity of Republican nominee in southern state is, surely, nothing new. I would be much more surprsed if it was NOT so...

Now you’re just stereotyping. I’m not speaking about any other southern state. Bill Lee touted his religiosity more than any successful (nominated) state-wide candidate  in Tennessee in the last 18 years. Harwell was by far the most moderate, while Boyd, who others characterized early on as moderate (and probably would have been in office), tried hard in ads and speeches to prove he was plenty conservative enough for Tennessee. He spent the campaign trying to dispel the myth he was moderate. Whether that was a ruse we won’t know. Black basically said “yeah, what Trump says” which might make her the most knee jerk partisan, but not the most conservative. Again, the most successful Republican nominees in recent years, namely Corker, Alexander, and Haslam, are more moderate patricians than dyed-in-the-wool conservatives. Much to the disappointment of many Tennessee movement conservatives, who are very happy with Lee and Blackburn. Black lost because of the perception that at her core, she’s out to use government to make the rich, including herself and her drug testing company husband, richer via big government. She lost because of that and that her negative ads against others backfired majorly. Lee touted his religiosity in the context of every social issue on the list, his rural roots, and had a positive, upbeat campaign that voters turned to as they grew disgusted by Black and Boyd’s mud slinging.

Thanks for info! But i don't remember even the most moderate Republicans from Tennessee, for example (Baker, Haslam, Alexander, Corker) being especially socially moderate: all were pro-life to some extent, all were (at least - initially) skeptical about "gay marriage" and similar issues, and so on. Hence - this generalization. I understand, that some are more socially conservative then other, but i don't remember anyone, who was even a social moderate (even Haslam). In some other southern states i know such persons (like Sarah Davis in Texas), but - not in Tennessee, where i know only an opposite-type persons - socially conservative Democrats. Of course - i may be wrong, but that's an impression i got...

[smoltchanov]

^ More thanks for interesting post and article link!

[smoltchanov]

FWIW, this is my area of "expertise" so to speak, so please feel free to ask any questions.

ANY questions? Well, then my first will be of "historical type": what happened to Charles Mathias - Connie Morella wing of Republican party in Maryland? It was rather popular in Montgomery county and vicinity not so long (by historical standards) ago. Obviously - most of such people (Gude and some other come to mind too) are either dead or very old now (only Morella is alive AFAIK), but what about their descendants? Are they Democrats now or simply apolitical?

And second question is directly connected to the first, but - belongs to THIS subject: as Hogan in Maryland (plus - Baker in Massachusetts and Scott in Vermont) had proved - Republicans of such type may win (at least - statewide) even in the most Demovcratic states like these. Is it possible that Republicans will at least try to find such candidate in 2022, or they will simply run conservative sacrificial lamb?