2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

2022

A bit old, but Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) is positioning herself to announce her gubernatorial run likely sometime next spring.

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.

Both Arizona and Maryland are easily Democrats' best shots at pickups in 2022, even in a Biden midterm since they will be open seats. Massachusetts and Vermont would also catapult to this tier if Charlie Baker or Phil Scott were to hang it up, or New Hampshire if Chris Sununu runs for Senate. Other potential states where the Democratic Governors Association is likely to go on offense include in Georgia, Florida, and Iowa where Republican Governors are currently getting horrible numbers for their handling of the pandemic. Alaska and South Dakota might present some opportunity as well since both Kristi Noem and Mike Dunleavy are relatively unpopular in those states and both had fairly close initial elections.

Democrats' most vulnerable open seat by far is Pennsylvania, but will also need to defend incumbent Governors in three states that Trump won in 2016: Kansas, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

2022

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.

He's trying his best to clear the field. He was the most popular dem in state wide elections in 2018 and is announcing first and showing off the money he raised. I wouldn't say this is a sign of grassroots support, more just how he can rake in money for his campaign. There are a lot of young county exec's across MD that could give him a real run for his money

I think he has a good shot in a crowded primary, which Maryland Democrats will likely have. He easily consolidates all the moderate and conservative Democrats who like Hogan, and the progressives eat themselves. He’d probably lose a 1 v 1 primary, though.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

2022

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.

He's trying his best to clear the field. He was the most popular dem in state wide elections in 2018 and is announcing first and showing off the money he raised. I wouldn't say this is a sign of grassroots support, more just how he can rake in money for his campaign. There are a lot of young county exec's across MD that could give him a real run for his money

I think he has a good shot in a crowded primary, which Maryland Democrats will likely have. He easily consolidates all the moderate and conservative Democrats who like Hogan, and the progressives eat themselves. He’d probably lose a 1 v 1 primary, though.

I agree. There will be many progressives coming out that were too scared to take on Hogan in 2018. Honestly, Maryland is a democratic state, but it hates progressives so I think someone like Franchot probably has the best shot at winning (especially with the aforementioned 2018 results). The Republican nominee will almost certainly be Boyd Rutherford who won't be too easy to beat. If the race is Franchot v Rutherford under a Biden midterm it's probably lean D

What's so special about Ruterford that would make it that competitive against Franchot? Franchot seems like he would put the race entirely out of play for Republicans no matter who he faces if he got to the general election. He's obviously well-liked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

I'm personally fine with Franchot in 2022 since he'll keep a check on the excesses of the legislature and he is unlikely to become another O'Malley-like activist that uses the position to boost himself for the national spotlight--which of course led to Hogan winning in 2014.

If this gubernatorial race had implications for redistricting, I'd probably support someone a lot more aggressive, but since it doesn't, I don't care too much.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The Republican bench in Maryland was effectively wiped out in 2018. No one credible outside of Rutherford would be able to give Franchot much of a scare, and even then it's Likely D.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Some thoughts WRT the Governor's Race in 2022:

-Franchot is extremely popular in the state, with only 3% disapproval. If he wins the primary, the general election will not be close no matter who republicans put up (and he probably would have beaten Hogan had he chosen to run in either 2014 or 2018)

- that being said, he is not necessarily a lock for the primary. He starts out with a very high floor of more moderate, white democrats, but he has no strong rapport with african americans. This gives a pathway to someone like PG county commissioner Angela Alsobrooks or even future Baltimore mayor Brandon Scott if they were able to consolidate the black vote and win over the white progressives in the closed in DC suburbs. Based on races with similar racial divides (2006/2016 dem Senate primaries), I am inclined to say Franchot is favored, but not extremely so.

FWIW, this is my area of "expertise" so to speak, so please feel free to ask any questions.

I agree. He benefits just as much for his association with Hogan as Rutherford does. This race is Safe D with Franchot barring a black swan.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Some thoughts WRT the Governor's Race in 2022:

-Franchot is extremely popular in the state, with only 3% disapproval. If he wins the primary, the general election will not be close no matter who republicans put up (and he probably would have beaten Hogan had he chosen to run in either 2014 or 2018)

- that being said, he is not necessarily a lock for the primary. He starts out with a very high floor of more moderate, white democrats, but he has no strong rapport with african americans. This gives a pathway to someone like PG county commissioner Angela Alsobrooks or even future Baltimore mayor Brandon Scott if they were able to consolidate the black vote and win over the white progressives in the closed in DC suburbs. Based on races with similar racial divides (2006/2016 dem Senate primaries), I am inclined to say Franchot is favored, but not extremely so.

FWIW, this is my area of "expertise" so to speak, so please feel free to ask any questions.

I’m curious about your thoughts on the dynamic of a potential 2022 Hogan Senate run. Obviously Hogan and Franchot are close, so do you think they would actively work with their respective tickets to defeat the other if it came down to it? As a Democrat, a Hogan senate run puts another seat on the board that I’d rather not have to worry about, as most defensive efforts would otherwise go into New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona and possibly Georgia if Warnock won this year.