He's trying his best to clear the field. He was the most popular dem in state wide elections in 2018 and is announcing first and showing off the money he raised. I wouldn't say this is a sign of grassroots support, more just how he can rake in money for his campaign. There are a lot of young county exec's across MD that could give him a real run for his money
I think he has a good shot in a crowded primary, which Maryland Democrats will likely have. He easily consolidates all the moderate and conservative Democrats who like Hogan, and the progressives eat themselves. He’d probably lose a 1 v 1 primary, though.
I agree. There will be many progressives coming out that were too scared to take on Hogan in 2018. Honestly, Maryland is a democratic state, but it hates progressives so I think someone like Franchot probably has the best shot at winning (especially with the aforementioned 2018 results). The Republican nominee will almost certainly be Boyd Rutherford who won't be too easy to beat. If the race is Franchot v Rutherford under a Biden midterm it's probably lean D
What's so special about Ruterford that would make it that competitive against Franchot? Franchot seems like he would put the race entirely out of play for Republicans no matter who he faces if he got to the general election. He's obviously well-liked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
I'm personally fine with Franchot in 2022 since he'll keep a check on the excesses of the legislature and he is unlikely to become another O'Malley-like activist that uses the position to boost himself for the national spotlight--which of course led to Hogan winning in 2014.
If this gubernatorial race had implications for redistricting, I'd probably support someone a lot more aggressive, but since it doesn't, I don't care too much.
Rutherford is the LG of an extremely popular governor. As someone who lived in Maryland people from the eastern shore to montgomery county love Hogan. And that was before COVID, the Hogan Rutherford administration is seen as one of the most effective maryland has had in a long time. If Rutherford can campaign with Hogan and be promoted by him, he has a fighting chance. Outside of Rutherford, the Republicans have no one and it is a safe D race. Franchot is probably the best person for the GE, but I would not call it safe D in a Biden midterm (a trump one is a different story but that is seeming more unlikely by the day).
I agree that Democrats are probably favored even in a Biden midterm, but good candidates can and do emerge unexpectedly. Look at Hogan himself in 2014. No one really thought he had a chance until the last month or so, but he ran a very effective campaign and won in a huge upset. Maryland, unlike New York or California, is clearly willing to vote Republican in the right circumstances.
