2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread (user search)
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  2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread  (Read 150691 times)
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« on: July 12, 2018, 01:46:34 PM »

Shes both the favorite of the primary, and the general.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2018, 07:24:40 AM »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2018, 05:48:18 PM »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

This isn't necessarily true. Polls didn't do Heller and Bredesen (among many, many others) much good when they conflicted heavily with the fundamentals.

True, we can call races like AL and CO, based on many factors. But the 2019 Guber races arent the place to do so. For all we know, Ds win all three, or lose all three. I would rather wait for polling and whatnot before making a declaration about the three governorships.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2018, 05:50:17 PM »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.

Thats not a good reason to call these races so early, especially with other factors going in. LA has an incumbent D facing a likely weak R, and is popular. MS has the popular AG. KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA. Polarization did occur in 2018, but you are missing out on key factors such as popularity, the region, among others. A D sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me, as would an R sweep.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2018, 06:18:13 PM »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0

Last I checked, Stintt was not the unpopular governor of OK.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2018, 06:28:42 PM »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

Funny, that didn't seem to matter to you guys when you were arguing Edmondson would win because of Fallin's approval and called me insane for rating it safe R and saying Stitt would win by double digits. I guess history never stops repeating itself.

Predicting Edmondson would win was an even worse prediction than Hyde-Smith +20 btw.

While I wasnt one of those people, there was still points of data that pointed towards it being a possibility. There was no evidence of that occurring in MS. The MS prediction is just plain bad, and ignores the facts of the elections.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2018, 06:43:17 PM »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.

Thats not a good reason to call these races so early, especially with other factors going in. LA has an incumbent D facing a likely weak R, and is popular. MS has the popular AG. KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA. Polarization did occur in 2018, but you are missing out on key factors such as popularity, the region, among others. A D sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me, as would an R sweep.

Candidate quality and approval ratings simply don't matter as much anymore, not in heavily Republican or heavily Democratic states. Bredesen was the best candidate Democrats could nominate in Tennessee, and he still lost by double digits. Richard Ojeda was a good fit for WV-03, yet he lost by double digits. Bob Hugin lost by double digits despite Menendez's scandals and personal unpopularity. Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale were terrible candidates, yet all three of them came within single digits (and in the cases of Morrisey and Rosendale, within 3 points) of victory. The fundamentals of each state are a more important factor than anything else, especially in this polarized environment.

You are only showing 1/2 the story.
Just a short rebuttal.

Bredesen ran a poor campaign, and couldnt capitalize on his momentum.
Ojeda was literally running in a Trump+50 district.
Hugin wasnt popular in NJ either, Menendez 23/44, Hugin 25/34
WV was Trump's best state, MT was a Trump +20 state(and the popular Democrat won, kinda a counterargument to your point, TBH) and OH saw a large trend to the right in 2018.

Partisanship is important, but popularity and appeal still matter, and its why many house candidates were able to clear the threshold.
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