2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[IceSpear]

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

This isn't necessarily true. Polls didn't do Heller and Bredesen (among many, many others) much good when they conflicted heavily with the fundamentals.

[IceSpear]

I see we're probably going to go through "toss-up Kentucky" mania again, only for Bevin to win re-election again. Mississippi will be more competitive.

Indeed, Atlas never learns. It's going to be TN-Sen 2018/OK-Gov 2018 redux. I have a new sig for the occasion.

[IceSpear]

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0

[IceSpear]

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0

I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

Funny, that didn't seem to matter to you guys when you were arguing Edmondson would win because of Fallin's approval and called me insane for rating it safe R and saying Stitt would win by double digits. I guess history never stops repeating itself.

Predicting Edmondson would win was an even worse prediction than Hyde-Smith +20 btw.

[IceSpear]

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0

I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

Funny, that didn't seem to matter to you guys when you were arguing Edmondson would win because of Fallin's approval and called me insane for rating it safe R and saying Stitt would win by double digits. I guess history never stops repeating itself.

Predicting Edmondson would win was an even worse prediction than Hyde-Smith +20 btw.

While I wasnt one of those people, there was still points of data that pointed towards it being a possibility. There was no evidence of that occurring in MS. The MS prediction is just plain bad, and ignores the facts of the elections.

There really were not. He trailed in every single poll in the last few months and polls always overestimate the Dems in Oklahoma anyway. Fundamentals? It's Oklahoma! There were absolutely zero things pointing to him winning other than Muhry Fallin's approval and hackery. Same for Kentucky. Kentucky polls overestimate the Democrats, Conway had a lead even right before the election then still got BTFO. And as for the fundamentals, it's Kentucky. Bevin being unpopular doesn't matter. They are not going to elect a Democrat.

Atlas really needs to learn the lesson from the flameouts of Bredesen, Edmondson, etc. Some states are just unwinnable no matter what.

By the way, in regards to "gubernatorial elections being different"...only one red state elected a Democratic governor this year even in a D+9 environment, and that state (Kansas) wasn't even all that red this year. Clearly polarization is increasing for them as well unless there's a popular incumbent like Beebe, Hogan, etc.