2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread
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  2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread  (Read 150676 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #475 on: June 22, 2018, 03:59:49 PM »

Why didn't President Obama ran for Illinois Governor this year? He would've easily won the primary in March.

Because JB Pritzker is a multi-millionaire that can match Rauner's money, just like Blair Hull.
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UnselfconsciousTeff
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« Reply #476 on: July 06, 2018, 07:10:18 PM »

Does Gretchen Whitmer has a chance ?
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #477 on: July 12, 2018, 01:40:36 PM »


If anything, she’s probably favored.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #478 on: July 12, 2018, 01:46:34 PM »

Shes both the favorite of the primary, and the general.
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aaroncd107
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« Reply #479 on: July 20, 2018, 09:42:28 PM »


What on earth do you mean RINO? He’s a far-right hack! I agree he’s gone, though.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #480 on: July 27, 2018, 10:30:20 PM »

Thoughts on Karl Dean's chances?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #481 on: July 27, 2018, 10:36:27 PM »

He has an excellent chance😁
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Maxwell
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« Reply #482 on: August 02, 2018, 07:26:51 PM »

Once again, Republican primary voters are hating on congresscritters - Diane Black is doing so poorly in this primary right now.
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TomC
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« Reply #483 on: August 02, 2018, 10:41:14 PM »


ZIP. Bredesen has a decent shot at Senate, but statewide, Dean is a newbie and a “city boy”, he’ll struggle terribly elsewhere.
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TomC
TCash101
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« Reply #484 on: August 02, 2018, 10:47:58 PM »

Once again, Republican primary voters are hating on congresscritters - Diane Black is doing so poorly in this primary right now.

Best Tenn political news of the year. Lee is Uber-conservative, and scary to me, but Black is just an icky $wamp creature. So glad she lost!
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #485 on: August 02, 2018, 11:12:56 PM »

Once again, Republican primary voters are hating on congresscritters - Diane Black is doing so poorly in this primary right now.

Best Tenn political news of the year. Lee is Uber-conservative, and scary to me, but Black is just an icky $wamp creature. So glad she lost!

Lee - Uber-conservative? Most analyst considered him and Boyd as 2 representatives of "moderate" camp: a Haslam-style pragmatic conservatives. That's the best, what can be expected from present day Republican party in this state.
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Badger
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« Reply #486 on: August 02, 2018, 11:53:59 PM »

Once again, Republican primary voters are hating on congresscritters - Diane Black is doing so poorly in this primary right now.

Best Tenn political news of the year. Lee is Uber-conservative, and scary to me, but Black is just an icky $wamp creature. So glad she lost!

Great to see you posting again, tcash! Cheesy
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Doimper
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« Reply #487 on: August 03, 2018, 12:09:36 AM »


ZIP. Bredesen has a decent shot at Senate, but statewide, Dean is a newbie and a “city boy”, he’ll struggle terribly elsewhere.

I get that Tennessee in 2002 was vastly different from what it is now, but wasn't Bredesen a "city boy" (mayor of Nashville) when he won the governorship?
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96FJV
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« Reply #488 on: August 03, 2018, 08:00:00 AM »

What is Bill Lee like? Is he far right? I really hope Karl Dean makes this a race.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #489 on: August 03, 2018, 08:03:58 AM »

What is Bill Lee like? Is he far right? I really hope Karl Dean makes this a race.

Less far right then Diane Black (that's sure), but still conservative enough (no one else can win Republican primary in Tennessee)
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TomC
TCash101
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« Reply #490 on: August 03, 2018, 06:40:43 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2018, 08:51:16 AM by TCash101 »

What is Bill Lee like? Is he far right? I really hope Karl Dean makes this a race.

Less far right then Diane Black (that's sure), but still conservative enough (no one else can win Republican primary in Tennessee)

I’m not sure I agree. He’s a hard right social conservative who wears his Christianity on his sleeves. On economics, I don’t know enough. His education platform seems to be “back to basics” and supportive of public schools, not a “CHOICE” monger,  but it’s pretty vague.

But Lee’s never held elective office, so really hard to tell with certainty.

I’ll vote for Dean, but i wasn’t a big fan while he was mayor; he was not that great for schools and teachers. He’s a Chamber if Commerce Democrat to be sure.

And on “no one else can win primary in Tennessee,” Lee is the most conservative to win a statewide primary since Bredesen’s 2006 opponent; other successful GOP nominees have been moderate patricians.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #491 on: August 04, 2018, 12:35:49 AM »
« Edited: August 04, 2018, 12:39:12 AM by smoltchanov »

^ Well, i stressed, that all characteristics were relative: Boyd was the most moderate  (as frequently happend before, coming from the East), while Black - the most reactionary. Lee, IMHO, is somewhere "in between".... But. social conservatism and religiosity of Republican nominee in southern state is, surely, nothing new. I would be much more surprsed if it was NOT so...
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TomC
TCash101
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« Reply #492 on: August 04, 2018, 07:15:21 AM »
« Edited: August 04, 2018, 08:52:10 AM by TCash101 »

But. social conservatism and religiosity of Republican nominee in southern state is, surely, nothing new. I would be much more surprsed if it was NOT so...

Now you’re just stereotyping. I’m not speaking about any other southern state. Bill Lee touted his religiosity more than any successful (nominated) state-wide candidate  in Tennessee in the last 18 years. Harwell was by far the most moderate, while Boyd, who others characterized early on as moderate (and probably would have been in office), tried hard in ads and speeches to prove he was plenty conservative enough for Tennessee. He spent the campaign trying to dispel the myth he was moderate. Whether that was a ruse we won’t know. Black basically said “yeah, what Trump says” which might make her the most knee jerk partisan, but not the most conservative. Again, the most successful Republican nominees in recent years, namely Corker, Alexander, and Haslam, are more moderate patricians than dyed-in-the-wool conservatives. Much to the disappointment of many Tennessee movement conservatives, who are very happy with Lee and Blackburn. Black lost because of the perception that at her core, she’s out to use government to make the rich, including herself and her drug testing company husband, richer via big government. She lost because of that and that her negative ads against others backfired majorly. Lee touted his religiosity in the context of every social issue on the list, his rural roots, and had a positive, upbeat campaign that voters turned to as they grew disgusted by Black and Boyd’s mud slinging.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/tn-elections/2018/08/03/bill-lee-tennessee-governor-randy-boyd-diane-black/899615002/

But by far, the cornerstone of his campaign was Lee’s own personal story that he told at every town hall and forum across the state — his personal tragedy in the death of his first wife of 16 years, Carol Ann, and how it drew him closer to God.

“My faith is the most important thing in my life, and that won't change when I'm the governor," he said in one ad, set in front of the South Harpeth Church of Christ where Lee attended as a child.

"In recent times, too often the voice of the faithful has been made to feel increasingly unwelcome in the public square, and that's a mistake," he said. "The phrase 'separation of church and state' has been twisted. It was intended to keep the government out of church, but not to keep people of faith out of the government."

He said the governor’s office is a “calling.”
Even some of Lee's most high-profile supporters have deep connections to the faith community. Notable names include Christian music recording artist Michael W. Smith, for instance.
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TomC
TCash101
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« Reply #493 on: August 04, 2018, 08:04:20 AM »

Though I’ll admit, using the “Uber” prefix was hyperbole.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #494 on: August 04, 2018, 08:52:39 AM »

But. social conservatism and religiosity of Republican nominee in southern state is, surely, nothing new. I would be much more surprsed if it was NOT so...

Now you’re just stereotyping. I’m not speaking about any other southern state. Bill Lee touted his religiosity more than any successful (nominated) state-wide candidate  in Tennessee in the last 18 years. Harwell was by far the most moderate, while Boyd, who others characterized early on as moderate (and probably would have been in office), tried hard in ads and speeches to prove he was plenty conservative enough for Tennessee. He spent the campaign trying to dispel the myth he was moderate. Whether that was a ruse we won’t know. Black basically said “yeah, what Trump says” which might make her the most knee jerk partisan, but not the most conservative. Again, the most successful Republican nominees in recent years, namely Corker, Alexander, and Haslam, are more moderate patricians than dyed-in-the-wool conservatives. Much to the disappointment of many Tennessee movement conservatives, who are very happy with Lee and Blackburn. Black lost because of the perception that at her core, she’s out to use government to make the rich, including herself and her drug testing company husband, richer via big government. She lost because of that and that her negative ads against others backfired majorly. Lee touted his religiosity in the context of every social issue on the list, his rural roots, and had a positive, upbeat campaign that voters turned to as they grew disgusted by Black and Boyd’s mud slinging.

Thanks for info! But i don't remember even the most moderate Republicans from Tennessee, for example (Baker, Haslam, Alexander, Corker) being especially socially moderate: all were pro-life to some extent, all were (at least - initially) skeptical about "gay marriage" and similar issues, and so on. Hence - this generalization. I understand, that some are more socially conservative then other, but i don't remember anyone, who was even a social moderate (even Haslam). In some other southern states i know such persons (like Sarah Davis in Texas), but - not in Tennessee, where i know only an opposite-type persons - socially conservative Democrats. Of course - i may be wrong, but that's an impression i got...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #495 on: August 04, 2018, 11:13:53 AM »

^ More thanks for interesting post and article link!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #496 on: November 09, 2018, 04:51:49 PM »

2019-2021




Gov-elect Beshear-KY
Gov-elect Reaves-MS
Gov-elect Dem VA
Gov-elect Foxx-MT
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #497 on: November 24, 2018, 05:42:31 PM »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?
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Badger
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« Reply #498 on: November 25, 2018, 12:18:04 PM »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Has Hood indicated he's actually running for governor this time?

If not, how many elections has this been were Democrats Pine away for him to run thinking he is there golden ticket to finally narrowly retaking the governor's mansion, only to have Hood choose job security over a nominal promotion?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #499 on: November 25, 2018, 12:19:20 PM »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Has Hood indicated he's actually running for governor this time?

If not, how many elections has this been were Democrats Pine away for him to run thinking he is there golden ticket to finally narrowly retaking the governor's mansion, only to have Hood choose job security over a nominal promotion?

Jim Hood announced a while ago that he’s running.
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