2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread
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« Reply #525 on: December 08, 2018, 10:21:07 PM »

Very Interesting!
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Galeel
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« Reply #526 on: February 03, 2019, 07:44:20 PM »

You can't compare how Democrats do in red state senate elections to red state governor elections. While Democrats lost badly in red state senate elections in 2018, they did much better in Gubernatorial elections, winning Kansas and coming close in South Dakota. At the same time, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maryland elected Republican governors. In general, people are much less partisan in gubernatorial elections than in Senate elections.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #527 on: October 25, 2019, 07:23:25 PM »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

How relevant these predictions seem! Except for the part about Kennedy, I was pretty much on target concerning the trajectory these races have taken.
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #528 on: March 22, 2020, 01:28:43 PM »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

How relevant these predictions seem! Except for the part about Kennedy, I was pretty much on target concerning the trajectory these races have taken.

Lol. Governor Bevin thanks you for your confidence in him!
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Jopow
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« Reply #529 on: June 08, 2020, 06:59:18 AM »

I couldn't find a thread for 2020 predictions, so I'll leave them here based on polls and what I think so far.

Republicans flip two seats: North Carolina and Montana. Montana goes Safe R and North Carolina Lean R.

In Montana, Republicans had higher turnout in the gubernatorial race on June 2. I think Cooper was unpopular by threatening capacity of the RNC Convention and may lose some bipartisan votes for that.

I also think Washington and Delaware will go to Democrats by 5-10%.

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Ye We Can
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« Reply #530 on: June 08, 2020, 07:54:20 AM »

I couldn't find a thread for 2020 predictions, so I'll leave them here based on polls and what I think so far.

Republicans flip two seats: North Carolina and Montana. Montana goes Safe R and North Carolina Lean R.

In Montana, Republicans had higher turnout in the gubernatorial race on June 2. I think Cooper was unpopular by threatening capacity of the RNC Convention and may lose some bipartisan votes for that.

I also think Washington and Delaware will go to Democrats by 5-10%.



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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #531 on: June 08, 2020, 08:30:18 AM »

I couldn't find a thread for 2020 predictions, so I'll leave them here based on polls and what I think so far.

Republicans flip two seats: North Carolina and Montana. Montana goes Safe R and North Carolina Lean R.

In Montana, Republicans had higher turnout in the gubernatorial race on June 2. I think Cooper was unpopular by threatening capacity of the RNC Convention and may lose some bipartisan votes for that.

I also think Washington and Delaware will go to Democrats by 5-10%.



Delaware just doesn't have that moderate kick to make this happen, especially in a Presidential election year.  New Castle roundly cancels out gains from Kent and Sussex. 
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Jopow
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« Reply #532 on: June 08, 2020, 11:15:28 AM »

I couldn't find a thread for 2020 predictions, so I'll leave them here based on polls and what I think so far.

Republicans flip two seats: North Carolina and Montana. Montana goes Safe R and North Carolina Lean R.

In Montana, Republicans had higher turnout in the gubernatorial race on June 2. I think Cooper was unpopular by threatening capacity of the RNC Convention and may lose some bipartisan votes for that.

I also think Washington and Delaware will go to Democrats by 5-10%.



Delaware just doesn't have that moderate kick to make this happen, especially in a Presidential election year.  New Castle roundly cancels out gains from Kent and Sussex. 
Well, that is true but Clinton won it by 11, all it needs to do to become 5-10% is go down a point.
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Jopow
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« Reply #533 on: June 18, 2020, 08:14:22 AM »

This is my gubernatorial prediction. A bit of a bold prediction.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #534 on: June 18, 2020, 08:29:51 AM »

Can't see Washington being anything less than solid lean to safe D. 

Four and a half months from the election and Inslee doesn't even have a sure opponent. 
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Damocles
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« Reply #535 on: July 07, 2020, 01:45:30 AM »

Can't see Washington being anything less than solid lean to safe D. 

Four and a half months from the election and Inslee doesn't even have a sure opponent. 
This is the correct take. The WAGOP is a joke of a party. They continue to have Matt Shea among their ranks and refuse to disavow him. They even tried the whole “State of Liberty” nonsense. Most reasonable people here think that the GOP are a bunch of radicals, and won’t even consider anything the GOP has on offer.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #536 on: July 18, 2020, 02:56:40 AM »
« Edited: July 18, 2020, 03:09:30 AM by TrendsareUsuallyReal »

2022

A bit old, but Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) is positioning herself to announce her gubernatorial run likely sometime next spring.

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.

Both Arizona and Maryland are easily Democrats' best shots at pickups in 2022, even in a Biden midterm since they will be open seats. Massachusetts and Vermont would also catapult to this tier if Charlie Baker or Phil Scott were to hang it up, or New Hampshire if Chris Sununu runs for Senate. Other potential states where the Democratic Governors Association is likely to go on offense include in Georgia, Florida, and Iowa where Republican Governors are currently getting horrible numbers for their handling of the pandemic. Alaska and South Dakota might present some opportunity as well since both Kristi Noem and Mike Dunleavy are relatively unpopular in those states and both had fairly close initial elections.

Democrats' most vulnerable open seat by far is Pennsylvania, but will also need to defend incumbent Governors in three states that Trump won in 2016: Kansas, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
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Lognog
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« Reply #537 on: July 18, 2020, 10:55:27 AM »

2022

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.



He's trying his best to clear the field. He was the most popular dem in state wide elections in 2018 and is announcing first and showing off the money he raised. I wouldn't say this is a sign of grassroots support, more just how he can rake in money for his campaign. There are a lot of young county exec's across MD that could give him a real run for his money
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #538 on: July 18, 2020, 03:37:48 PM »

2022

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.



He's trying his best to clear the field. He was the most popular dem in state wide elections in 2018 and is announcing first and showing off the money he raised. I wouldn't say this is a sign of grassroots support, more just how he can rake in money for his campaign. There are a lot of young county exec's across MD that could give him a real run for his money

I think he has a good shot in a crowded primary, which Maryland Democrats will likely have. He easily consolidates all the moderate and conservative Democrats who like Hogan, and the progressives eat themselves. He’d probably lose a 1 v 1 primary, though.
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Lognog
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« Reply #539 on: July 18, 2020, 05:23:09 PM »

2022

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.



He's trying his best to clear the field. He was the most popular dem in state wide elections in 2018 and is announcing first and showing off the money he raised. I wouldn't say this is a sign of grassroots support, more just how he can rake in money for his campaign. There are a lot of young county exec's across MD that could give him a real run for his money

I think he has a good shot in a crowded primary, which Maryland Democrats will likely have. He easily consolidates all the moderate and conservative Democrats who like Hogan, and the progressives eat themselves. He’d probably lose a 1 v 1 primary, though.

I agree. There will be many progressives coming out that were too scared to take on Hogan in 2018. Honestly, Maryland is a democratic state, but it hates progressives so I think someone like Franchot probably has the best shot at winning (especially with the aforementioned 2018 results). The Republican nominee will almost certainly be Boyd Rutherford who won't be too easy to beat. If the race is Franchot v Rutherford under a Biden midterm it's probably lean D
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #540 on: July 18, 2020, 06:44:50 PM »
« Edited: July 18, 2020, 06:53:46 PM by TrendsareUsuallyReal »

2022

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.



He's trying his best to clear the field. He was the most popular dem in state wide elections in 2018 and is announcing first and showing off the money he raised. I wouldn't say this is a sign of grassroots support, more just how he can rake in money for his campaign. There are a lot of young county exec's across MD that could give him a real run for his money

I think he has a good shot in a crowded primary, which Maryland Democrats will likely have. He easily consolidates all the moderate and conservative Democrats who like Hogan, and the progressives eat themselves. He’d probably lose a 1 v 1 primary, though.

I agree. There will be many progressives coming out that were too scared to take on Hogan in 2018. Honestly, Maryland is a democratic state, but it hates progressives so I think someone like Franchot probably has the best shot at winning (especially with the aforementioned 2018 results). The Republican nominee will almost certainly be Boyd Rutherford who won't be too easy to beat. If the race is Franchot v Rutherford under a Biden midterm it's probably lean D

What's so special about Ruterford that would make it that competitive against Franchot? Franchot seems like he would put the race entirely out of play for Republicans no matter who he faces if he got to the general election. He's obviously well-liked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

I'm personally fine with Franchot in 2022 since he'll keep a check on the excesses of the legislature and he is unlikely to become another O'Malley-like activist that uses the position to boost himself for the national spotlight--which of course led to Hogan winning in 2014.

If this gubernatorial race had implications for redistricting, I'd probably support someone a lot more aggressive, but since it doesn't, I don't care too much.
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Lognog
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« Reply #541 on: July 18, 2020, 07:45:16 PM »

2022

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.



He's trying his best to clear the field. He was the most popular dem in state wide elections in 2018 and is announcing first and showing off the money he raised. I wouldn't say this is a sign of grassroots support, more just how he can rake in money for his campaign. There are a lot of young county exec's across MD that could give him a real run for his money

I think he has a good shot in a crowded primary, which Maryland Democrats will likely have. He easily consolidates all the moderate and conservative Democrats who like Hogan, and the progressives eat themselves. He’d probably lose a 1 v 1 primary, though.

I agree. There will be many progressives coming out that were too scared to take on Hogan in 2018. Honestly, Maryland is a democratic state, but it hates progressives so I think someone like Franchot probably has the best shot at winning (especially with the aforementioned 2018 results). The Republican nominee will almost certainly be Boyd Rutherford who won't be too easy to beat. If the race is Franchot v Rutherford under a Biden midterm it's probably lean D

What's so special about Ruterford that would make it that competitive against Franchot? Franchot seems like he would put the race entirely out of play for Republicans no matter who he faces if he got to the general election. He's obviously well-liked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

I'm personally fine with Franchot in 2022 since he'll keep a check on the excesses of the legislature and he is unlikely to become another O'Malley-like activist that uses the position to boost himself for the national spotlight--which of course led to Hogan winning in 2014.

If this gubernatorial race had implications for redistricting, I'd probably support someone a lot more aggressive, but since it doesn't, I don't care too much.

Rutherford is the LG of an extremely popular governor. As someone who lived in Maryland people from the eastern shore to montgomery county love Hogan. And that was before COVID, the Hogan Rutherford administration is seen as one of the most effective maryland has had in a long time. If Rutherford can campaign with Hogan and be promoted by him, he has a fighting chance. Outside of Rutherford, the Republicans have no one and it is a safe D race. Franchot is probably the best person for the GE, but I would not call it safe D in a Biden midterm (a trump one is a different story but that is seeming more unlikely by the day).

Personally I would like to see someone more progressive like Marc Elrich, but that's just me personally. The Maryland legislature is not your regular dem super majority legislature. I is a lot more similar to Delaware's than say Massachusetts. The Senate majority leader for the dems had served since 1986 until retiring from leadership last cycle. The house and senate are full of old guard people that are far from progressive.

I'm not sure but since the Democrats have so many seats I don't think the race is important for redistricting.

Franchot won't be another O'Mally type. he was comptroller for 14 years, he's not a very showy person but he seems to get results.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #542 on: July 18, 2020, 07:58:22 PM »

2022

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.



He's trying his best to clear the field. He was the most popular dem in state wide elections in 2018 and is announcing first and showing off the money he raised. I wouldn't say this is a sign of grassroots support, more just how he can rake in money for his campaign. There are a lot of young county exec's across MD that could give him a real run for his money

I think he has a good shot in a crowded primary, which Maryland Democrats will likely have. He easily consolidates all the moderate and conservative Democrats who like Hogan, and the progressives eat themselves. He’d probably lose a 1 v 1 primary, though.

I agree. There will be many progressives coming out that were too scared to take on Hogan in 2018. Honestly, Maryland is a democratic state, but it hates progressives so I think someone like Franchot probably has the best shot at winning (especially with the aforementioned 2018 results). The Republican nominee will almost certainly be Boyd Rutherford who won't be too easy to beat. If the race is Franchot v Rutherford under a Biden midterm it's probably lean D

What's so special about Ruterford that would make it that competitive against Franchot? Franchot seems like he would put the race entirely out of play for Republicans no matter who he faces if he got to the general election. He's obviously well-liked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

I'm personally fine with Franchot in 2022 since he'll keep a check on the excesses of the legislature and he is unlikely to become another O'Malley-like activist that uses the position to boost himself for the national spotlight--which of course led to Hogan winning in 2014.

If this gubernatorial race had implications for redistricting, I'd probably support someone a lot more aggressive, but since it doesn't, I don't care too much.

Rutherford is the LG of an extremely popular governor. As someone who lived in Maryland people from the eastern shore to montgomery county love Hogan. And that was before COVID, the Hogan Rutherford administration is seen as one of the most effective maryland has had in a long time. If Rutherford can campaign with Hogan and be promoted by him, he has a fighting chance. Outside of Rutherford, the Republicans have no one and it is a safe D race. Franchot is probably the best person for the GE, but I would not call it safe D in a Biden midterm (a trump one is a different story but that is seeming more unlikely by the day).


I agree that Democrats are probably favored even in a Biden midterm, but good candidates can and do emerge unexpectedly. Look at Hogan himself in 2014. No one really thought he had a chance until the last month or so, but he ran a very effective campaign and won in a huge upset. Maryland, unlike New York or California, is clearly willing to vote Republican in the right circumstances.
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« Reply #543 on: July 18, 2020, 08:02:09 PM »

2022

Also already noted in another thread, Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) is running for Governor in 2022 and has $1.6 million in the bank already as of the beginning of the year.



He's trying his best to clear the field. He was the most popular dem in state wide elections in 2018 and is announcing first and showing off the money he raised. I wouldn't say this is a sign of grassroots support, more just how he can rake in money for his campaign. There are a lot of young county exec's across MD that could give him a real run for his money

I think he has a good shot in a crowded primary, which Maryland Democrats will likely have. He easily consolidates all the moderate and conservative Democrats who like Hogan, and the progressives eat themselves. He’d probably lose a 1 v 1 primary, though.

I agree. There will be many progressives coming out that were too scared to take on Hogan in 2018. Honestly, Maryland is a democratic state, but it hates progressives so I think someone like Franchot probably has the best shot at winning (especially with the aforementioned 2018 results). The Republican nominee will almost certainly be Boyd Rutherford who won't be too easy to beat. If the race is Franchot v Rutherford under a Biden midterm it's probably lean D

What's so special about Ruterford that would make it that competitive against Franchot? Franchot seems like he would put the race entirely out of play for Republicans no matter who he faces if he got to the general election. He's obviously well-liked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

I'm personally fine with Franchot in 2022 since he'll keep a check on the excesses of the legislature and he is unlikely to become another O'Malley-like activist that uses the position to boost himself for the national spotlight--which of course led to Hogan winning in 2014.

If this gubernatorial race had implications for redistricting, I'd probably support someone a lot more aggressive, but since it doesn't, I don't care too much.

Rutherford is the LG of an extremely popular governor. As someone who lived in Maryland people from the eastern shore to montgomery county love Hogan. And that was before COVID, the Hogan Rutherford administration is seen as one of the most effective maryland has had in a long time. If Rutherford can campaign with Hogan and be promoted by him, he has a fighting chance. Outside of Rutherford, the Republicans have no one and it is a safe D race. Franchot is probably the best person for the GE, but I would not call it safe D in a Biden midterm (a trump one is a different story but that is seeming more unlikely by the day).


I agree that Democrats are probably favored even in a Biden midterm, but good candidates can and do emerge unexpectedly. Look at Hogan himself in 2014. No one really thought he had a chance until the last month or so, but he ran a very effective campaign and won in a huge upset. Maryland, unlike New York or California, is clearly willing to vote Republican in the right circumstances.

That's fair, but Hogan also came from a Political dynasty that practically embodied the Republican party of Maryland post Agnew, and today.

Hogan was very underrated, but probably wouldn't have been able to win with out the awful campaign anthony brown ran. Franchot will not make the same mistake, nor the county exec's that could get the nomination
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #544 on: July 18, 2020, 08:03:06 PM »

The Republican bench in Maryland was effectively wiped out in 2018. No one credible outside of Rutherford would be able to give Franchot much of a scare, and even then it's Likely D.
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« Reply #545 on: July 18, 2020, 08:07:35 PM »

The Republican bench in Maryland was effectively wiped out in 2018. No one credible outside of Rutherford would be able to give Franchot much of a scare, and even then it's Likely D.

True. This far out I would say lean D, but in Jan of 2022 it'll probably be likely D
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #546 on: July 19, 2020, 08:05:17 PM »

Some thoughts WRT the Governor's Race in 2022:

-Franchot is extremely popular in the state, with only 3% disapproval. If he wins the primary, the general election will not be close no matter who republicans put up (and he probably would have beaten Hogan had he chosen to run in either 2014 or 2018)

- that being said, he is not necessarily a lock for the primary. He starts out with a very high floor of more moderate, white democrats, but he has no strong rapport with african americans. This gives a pathway to someone like PG county commissioner Angela Alsobrooks or even future Baltimore mayor Brandon Scott if they were able to consolidate the black vote and win over the white progressives in the closed in DC suburbs. Based on races with similar racial divides (2006/2016 dem Senate primaries), I am inclined to say Franchot is favored, but not extremely so.

FWIW, this is my area of "expertise" so to speak, so please feel free to ask any questions.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #547 on: July 19, 2020, 11:50:50 PM »

Some thoughts WRT the Governor's Race in 2022:

-Franchot is extremely popular in the state, with only 3% disapproval. If he wins the primary, the general election will not be close no matter who republicans put up (and he probably would have beaten Hogan had he chosen to run in either 2014 or 2018)

- that being said, he is not necessarily a lock for the primary. He starts out with a very high floor of more moderate, white democrats, but he has no strong rapport with african americans. This gives a pathway to someone like PG county commissioner Angela Alsobrooks or even future Baltimore mayor Brandon Scott if they were able to consolidate the black vote and win over the white progressives in the closed in DC suburbs. Based on races with similar racial divides (2006/2016 dem Senate primaries), I am inclined to say Franchot is favored, but not extremely so.

FWIW, this is my area of "expertise" so to speak, so please feel free to ask any questions.

I agree. He benefits just as much for his association with Hogan as Rutherford does. This race is Safe D with Franchot barring a black swan.
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« Reply #548 on: July 27, 2020, 12:55:39 PM »

FWIW, this is my area of "expertise" so to speak, so please feel free to ask any questions.

ANY questions? Well, then my first will be of "historical type": what happened to Charles Mathias - Connie Morella wing of Republican party in Maryland? It was rather popular in Montgomery county and vicinity not so long (by historical standards) ago. Obviously - most of such people (Gude and some other come to mind too) are either dead or very old now (only Morella is alive AFAIK), but what about their descendants? Are they Democrats now or simply apolitical?

And second question is directly connected to the first, but - belongs to THIS subject: as Hogan in Maryland (plus - Baker in Massachusetts and Scott in Vermont) had proved - Republicans of such type may win (at least - statewide) even in the most Demovcratic states like these. Is it possible that Republicans will at least try to find such candidate in 2022, or they will simply run conservative sacrificial lamb?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #549 on: July 28, 2020, 10:34:51 AM »

Some thoughts WRT the Governor's Race in 2022:

-Franchot is extremely popular in the state, with only 3% disapproval. If he wins the primary, the general election will not be close no matter who republicans put up (and he probably would have beaten Hogan had he chosen to run in either 2014 or 2018)

- that being said, he is not necessarily a lock for the primary. He starts out with a very high floor of more moderate, white democrats, but he has no strong rapport with african americans. This gives a pathway to someone like PG county commissioner Angela Alsobrooks or even future Baltimore mayor Brandon Scott if they were able to consolidate the black vote and win over the white progressives in the closed in DC suburbs. Based on races with similar racial divides (2006/2016 dem Senate primaries), I am inclined to say Franchot is favored, but not extremely so.

FWIW, this is my area of "expertise" so to speak, so please feel free to ask any questions.

I’m curious about your thoughts on the dynamic of a potential 2022 Hogan Senate run. Obviously Hogan and Franchot are close, so do you think they would actively work with their respective tickets to defeat the other if it came down to it? As a Democrat, a Hogan senate run puts another seat on the board that I’d rather not have to worry about, as most defensive efforts would otherwise go into New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona and possibly Georgia if Warnock won this year.
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