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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread  (Read 123231 times)
RecoveringDem
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« Reply #500 on: November 24, 2018, 05:42:31 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?
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PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #501 on: November 25, 2018, 12:18:04 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Has Hood indicated he's actually running for governor this time?

If not, how many elections has this been were Democrats Pine away for him to run thinking he is there golden ticket to finally narrowly retaking the governor's mansion, only to have Hood choose job security over a nominal promotion?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #502 on: November 25, 2018, 12:19:20 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Has Hood indicated he's actually running for governor this time?

If not, how many elections has this been were Democrats Pine away for him to run thinking he is there golden ticket to finally narrowly retaking the governor's mansion, only to have Hood choose job security over a nominal promotion?

Jim Hood announced a while ago that he’s running.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #503 on: December 02, 2018, 02:39:18 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #504 on: December 02, 2018, 02:53:34 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.
I really wouldn't discount Hood. He is much more popular than Reeves.
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President Biden
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« Reply #505 on: December 02, 2018, 06:59:47 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.
*rolls eyes*
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #506 on: December 04, 2018, 07:19:15 am »



YES
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Zaybay
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« Reply #507 on: December 04, 2018, 07:24:40 am »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #508 on: December 04, 2018, 05:12:31 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #509 on: December 04, 2018, 05:13:58 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

This isn't necessarily true. Polls didn't do Heller and Bredesen (among many, many others) much good when they conflicted heavily with the fundamentals.
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MR. CORY BOOKER
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« Reply #510 on: December 04, 2018, 05:14:44 pm »

Tilt D
P-LA JBE
Tossup
T-KY M.Bevin
Tilt R
T-MS Reeves
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #511 on: December 04, 2018, 05:17:42 pm »

I see we're probably going to go through "toss-up Kentucky" mania again, only for Bevin to win re-election again. Mississippi will be more competitive.
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MR. CORY BOOKER
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« Reply #512 on: December 04, 2018, 05:23:55 pm »

I see we're probably going to go through "toss-up Kentucky" mania again, only for Bevin to win re-election again. Mississippi will be more competitive.

Reeves is gonna win, the GOP state assembly overrode a funding bill for schools, a pet project of Beshear, that Bevin vetoed. The school funding bill benefitted Democrats.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #513 on: December 04, 2018, 05:27:33 pm »

I see we're probably going to go through "toss-up Kentucky" mania again, only for Bevin to win re-election again. Mississippi will be more competitive.

Indeed, Atlas never learns. It's going to be TN-Sen 2018/OK-Gov 2018 redux. I have a new sig for the occasion.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #514 on: December 04, 2018, 05:48:18 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

This isn't necessarily true. Polls didn't do Heller and Bredesen (among many, many others) much good when they conflicted heavily with the fundamentals.

True, we can call races like AL and CO, based on many factors. But the 2019 Guber races arent the place to do so. For all we know, Ds win all three, or lose all three. I would rather wait for polling and whatnot before making a declaration about the three governorships.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #515 on: December 04, 2018, 05:50:17 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.

Thats not a good reason to call these races so early, especially with other factors going in. LA has an incumbent D facing a likely weak R, and is popular. MS has the popular AG. KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA. Polarization did occur in 2018, but you are missing out on key factors such as popularity, the region, among others. A D sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me, as would an R sweep.
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« Reply #516 on: December 04, 2018, 05:51:42 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.

Thats not a good reason to call these races so early, especially with other factors going in. LA has an incumbent D facing a likely weak R, and is popular. MS has the popular AG. KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA. Polarization did occur in 2018, but you are missing out on key factors such as popularity, the region, among others. A D sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me, as would an R sweep.
This guy predicted Hyde Smith would win by 20 so he can be safely ignored
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« Reply #517 on: December 04, 2018, 05:58:19 pm »

I suspect KY-GOV is probably fool's gold but it's definitely a better bet than trying to beat McConnell lol
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IceSpear
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« Reply #518 on: December 04, 2018, 06:15:11 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
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« Reply #519 on: December 04, 2018, 06:17:07 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #520 on: December 04, 2018, 06:18:13 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0

Last I checked, Stintt was not the unpopular governor of OK.
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« Reply #521 on: December 04, 2018, 06:18:46 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

plus OK is definitely more Republican than KY
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IceSpear
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« Reply #522 on: December 04, 2018, 06:23:29 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

Funny, that didn't seem to matter to you guys when you were arguing Edmondson would win because of Fallin's approval and called me insane for rating it safe R and saying Stitt would win by double digits. I guess history never stops repeating itself.

Predicting Edmondson would win was an even worse prediction than Hyde-Smith +20 btw.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #523 on: December 04, 2018, 06:28:42 pm »

KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA.

Clearly even a crimson red state like Oklahoma Kentucky would vote Democratic when the Republican governor is so deeply unpopular! Polarization hasn't gone that far, and gubernatorial elections aren't as polarized anyway!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=40&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0
I mean, Fallin wasn't on the ballot, and Stitt was an "outsider", not a politician.

Funny, that didn't seem to matter to you guys when you were arguing Edmondson would win because of Fallin's approval and called me insane for rating it safe R and saying Stitt would win by double digits. I guess history never stops repeating itself.

Predicting Edmondson would win was an even worse prediction than Hyde-Smith +20 btw.

While I wasnt one of those people, there was still points of data that pointed towards it being a possibility. There was no evidence of that occurring in MS. The MS prediction is just plain bad, and ignores the facts of the elections.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #524 on: December 04, 2018, 06:33:06 pm »

2019 Ratings

Louisiana - Lean D: Bel Edwards should win rather easily here, given his popularity, but after the shellacking that Democrats experienced in red states this year despite having a great night nationally, I don't feel comfortable rating this any more optimistically for Dems. Subject to move quickly in either direction based on Republican opposition, Trump popularity, the economy, etc.

Kentucky - Toss-Up: Bevin's approval ratings are terrible, and Democrats have a top tier recruit in Beshear, but again, I'm hesitant to be any more optimistic for the Dems than toss-up given how they've been performing in red states lately. The race should certainly remain competitive though, and if I had to choose, I'd give Beshear the slight edge, assuming Bevin does not go down in a primary.

Mississippi - Lean R: Jim Hood is immensely popular and has easily won reelection as AG several times - but, he's still a Democrat, and I could imagine MS voters being less willing to break party ranks in a Governor's race than a race for a lower office. Reeves seems likely to run, and I'd give him the upper hand for sure, but in no way should this race be discounted.

In summary - the stars are aligned in the Democrats' favor in all three of these races, and they should be able to win all of them. However, due to recent performance in states like these, it would not shock me if they were to win none of them.

Thoughts?

Democrats will lose in both Kentucky and Mississippi next year, and I think Louisiana can go either way. Edwards is in serious jeopardy if Kennedy runs.

You shouldnt make declarations about how a race will go before we have even gotten a poll.

Who says so? You? I've basing my predictions, in part, off this year's election results, along with the long-term polarization trends that we are seeing. And Edwards's chances in Louisiana have improved now that Kennedy is officially out, but I still think that race is a tossup. A Republican sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me.

Thats not a good reason to call these races so early, especially with other factors going in. LA has an incumbent D facing a likely weak R, and is popular. MS has the popular AG. KY has one of the most unpopular R governors in the USA. Polarization did occur in 2018, but you are missing out on key factors such as popularity, the region, among others. A D sweep of all three states next year would not surprise me, as would an R sweep.

Candidate quality and approval ratings simply don't matter as much anymore, not in heavily Republican or heavily Democratic states. Bredesen was the best candidate Democrats could nominate in Tennessee, and he still lost by double digits. Richard Ojeda was a good fit for WV-03, yet he lost by double digits. Bob Hugin lost by double digits despite Menendez's scandals and personal unpopularity. Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale were terrible candidates, yet all three of them came within single digits (and in the cases of Morrisey and Rosendale, within 3 points) of victory. The fundamentals of each state are a more important factor than anything else, especially in this polarized environment.
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