2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/988572013651480578

It's funny because it's true.

[smoltchanov]

Well, what alternative exist for centrists (real), who are basically ignored and villified in BOTH major political parties? To run as Indies.....

[RogueBeaver]

MA: Warren drops out.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

MA: Warren drops out.

Forgot what thread this was and was immensely confused.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MA: Warren drops out.

Forgot what thread this was and was immensely confused.

Same

[junior chįmp]

Roy Cooper will probably win in 2019

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Good news: NC Dems on track to flip the General Assembly:

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Roy Cooper will probably win in 2019

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Good news: NC Dems on track to flip the General Assembly:

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The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

[junior chįmp]

The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP

RINO Tom Tillis is finished

BIG

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP

RINO Tom Tillis is finished

BIG

The GOP's supermajorities in (both?) chambers are going to be gone imo, but an actual flip of both chambers under the current R-gerrymandered lines is going to be very hard to attain. If the VA state house didn't really flip in 2017, why would the NC state house and senate flip this year?
Also, important to note, NC is pretty inelastic...unlike WI.

[junior chįmp]

The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP

RINO Tom Tillis is finished

BIG

The GOP's supermajorities in (both?) chambers are going to be gone imo, but an actual flip of both chambers under the current R-gerrymandered lines is going to be very hard to attain. If the VA state house didn't really flip in 2017, why would the NC state house and senate flip this year?
Also, important to note, NC is pretty inelastic...unlike WI.

This upcoming legislative election has the most Democrats running ever. I think there is a real good chance it can flip

[Virginiá]

The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP

I'm really curious what a D+7 result would do to the legislature, but I think I have to agree with TimTurner in that flipping it with just D+7 doesn't seem possible. There is also precedent for this. Michigan's state House didn't flip in 2012 even with an almost D+8 popular vote win. Republicans walked away with a comfortable if not slimmer majority. The only difference between an R+8 pv in 2010 and a D+8 win in 2012 in Michigan was Democrats gaining 4 seats. That's literally all they got with wave-like numbers.

To use a more recent example, in Virginia 2017, Democrats flipped only one or two Trump seats with a 9 point PV win (skewed maybe by more seats w/o GOP candidates). Granted, Democrats flipped 15 seats, but almost all of them were Clinton seats. In order to flip the NC GA, Democrats would have to flip dozens of Trump seats. It's hard to see that happening, tbh.

[junior chįmp]

The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP

I'm really curious what a D+7 result would do to the legislature, but I think I have to agree with TimTurner in that flipping it with just D+7 doesn't seem possible. There is also precedent for this. Michigan's state House didn't flip in 2012 even with an almost D+8 popular vote win. Republicans walked away with a comfortable if not slimmer majority. The only difference between an R+8 pv in 2010 and a D+8 win in 2012 in Michigan was Democrats gaining 4 seats. That's literally all they got with wave-like numbers.

To use a more recent example, in Virginia 2017, Democrats flipped only one or two Trump seats with a 9 point PV win (skewed maybe by more seats w/o GOP candidates). Granted, Democrats flipped 15 seats, but almost all of them were Clinton seats. In order to flip the NC GA, Democrats would have to flip dozens of Trump seats. It's hard to see that happening, tbh.

The Virginia HoD had a higher efficiency gap than the current NC General Assembly. NC's is around 12%, while VA's was nearly 20%:

 

Despite the gigantic efficiency gap, and with the experts over at DDHQ giving the VA HoD a 4% chance of flipping the day of the election...the Dems nearly flipped the legislature until the courts stole 1 seat. One of the major reasons it flipped is because the Democrats fielded a candidate for nearly every seat in VA.

Now, for the first time in history, NC has fielded a Democratic candidate for every legislative race and having a candidate for every seat in a terrible environment tends to cancel out the efficiency gap of gerrymandering:

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If the VA HoD could (nearly) flip with a 18% efficiency gap....then the NC legislature could flip with a 12% gap

Of course....it may not flip but I think it stands a really good chance.

[RogueBeaver]

FL: POLITICO hints that Fratrick might be staffing up.

[Maxwell]

how many different brands of centrist do we need in the race for Florida Governor?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Laura Ellsworth, one of the three major GOP candidates for Governor in Pennsylvania was campaigning at my precinct. Seemed nice. Definitely the sane one of the three.

[Gass3268]

Laura Ellsworth, one of the three major GOP candidates for Governor in Pennsylvania was campaigning at my precinct. Seemed nice. Definitely the sane one of the three.

What county/city?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Laura Ellsworth, one of the three major GOP candidates for Governor in Pennsylvania was campaigning at my precinct. Seemed nice. Definitely the sane one of the three.

What county/city?

Westmoreland

Turnout is pretty low. My Precinct is really republican, but I noticed a lot more Ds voting than usual.

[Gass3268]

Laura Ellsworth, one of the three major GOP candidates for Governor in Pennsylvania was campaigning at my precinct. Seemed nice. Definitely the sane one of the three.

What county/city?

Westmoreland

Turnout is pretty low. My Precinct is really republican, but I noticed a lot more Ds voting than usual.

Interesting, Democrats still have a small advantage in voter registeration advantage in Westmorland, but that is still good to hear.

[RogueBeaver]

FL: Murphy's lined up $$$, is thinking about staff and will decide within a month.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

NY GOP nominee Marcus Molinaro announces failed State Senate candidate Julie Killian as his running mate.

Lost her election in a fairly blue district, but, I think someone like Joseph Holland, John Cahill, or Nicole Malliotakis would've done far more for name familiarity. Disappointed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Patrick Murphy won't run for FL governor, will endorse Gwen Graham

[Progressive Pessimist]

Patrick Murphy won't run for FL governor, will endorse Gwen Graham

I guess he is content with his career lying about being an accountant.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Why didn't President Obama ran for Illinois Governor this year? He would've easily won the primary in March.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why didn't President Obama ran for Illinois Governor this year? He would've easily won the primary in March.

Why on earth would he want to?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why didn't President Obama ran for Illinois Governor this year? He would've easily won the primary in March.

Because JB Pritzker is a multi-millionaire that can match Rauner's money, just like Blair Hull.