2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[Kamala]

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Endorsed! She won't win, but she'd have been miles better than Labrador.

[TrumpBritt24]

NYS Assemblyman Brian Kolb has launched a 2018 campaign to presumably face Governor Andrew Cuomo.

[smoltchanov]

NYS Assemblyman Brian Kolb has launched a 2018 campaign to presumably face Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Conservative Republican can't win NY governorship. If only Democrats nominate "their own version" of Roy Moore...

[MAINEiac4434]

NYS Assemblyman Brian Kolb has launched a 2018 campaign to presumably face Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Conservative Republican can't win NY governorship. If only Democrats nominate "their own version" of Roy Moore...

I could see Cuomo being a perv, but the D bench is so strong and Cuomo wouldn’t have anything like the Bannon machine keeping him in the race. If allegations were to come out, he’d easily — and quickly — be replaced.

[Virginiá]

Done

[junior chįmp]

Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

[henster]

Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

Only candidate I could see giving JBE trouble is Scalise, may be more inclined to run if GOP is in the minority.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

Edwards 2020!

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

Edwards 2020!

Danggg, yenno I always wondered what would it be like if the John Edwards of NC decided to run for some prosecuting office, but ig not. Man I’m getting old when different John Edwards’s are being considered as presidential contenders 😩

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

He's going to be tough to beat for sure.

[junior chįmp]

Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

He's going to be tough to beat for sure.

Belmentum!

Also.... hopefully a county wide landslide for Edwards against a nobody Republican helps make state legislature gains. The LA legislature is not as lopsided as most red states

[smoltchanov]

Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

He's going to be tough to beat for sure.

Belmentum!

Also.... hopefully a county wide landslide for Edwards against a nobody Republican helps make state legislature gains. The LA legislature is not as lopsided as most red states

In NO or BR suburbs - quite possible. But Democrats almost surely will have problems in rapidly swinging to the right Acadiana (and around it), where Republicans are favored to gain seats after "veterans" retire because of term limits. Clinton had abysmal percentages (lower then 30, in some cases - about 10) in many districts there, and even local Democrats will be hard pressed.

[junior chįmp]

Good news for Svaty:

‘I will remain Governor,’ Brownback tweets after Trump nomination stalls

[TheSaint250]

Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

Only candidate I could see giving JBE trouble is Scalise, may be more inclined to run if GOP is in the minority.

Huh. I'd never thought about him, but you're right.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For somewhat distant gubernatorial races (but still relevant), Eric Greitens has a 41% approval rating in that Republican poll. Kind of jives with what I've seen in the state. I know of several Trump-curious people who hate Greitens. Problem is, the Democratic bench in the state is weak.

My best friend at law school is from Ladue (a conservative, fairly racist suburb of St. Louis which happens to also have a higher median household income than any other city in the state) whose friends from Missouri are almost all very right-wing Republicans* and he says that the opinions of most Republicans (including hardcore Trumpists) he knows in suburban St. Louis regarding Grietens range from "meh, that guy seems sketchy but I can live with him" to "seriously, f*** that guy, he's incompetent and only cares about running for President."  This anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt, but I think Grietens could actually have some real trouble if the Democrats can recruit a strong candidate in 2020 (Kander might work, but he's been on TV a lot and could be painted as having become a media talking head, so we might want someone new).  Grietens seems to have had a pretty rough year as Governor while simultaneously going Full Jindal before he even won re-election.

*IDK if it's just Ladue, but I think Democrats have a bit of a heavier lift in Missouri if what he's said is true than many other states.  It sounds like Kansas City's suburbs (in Missouri and especially Kansas, which apparently has the more educated/affluent portions of the Kansas City metro for the most part) are already filled with Republicans planning to vote Democratic for Congress because of Trump (and that was before SALT) which is part of why I'm bullish on our chances in KS-3 with Neidermann despite Yoder being a strong incumbent.  However, if my friend is to be believed (and I suspect he's right about this), it sounds like due to out-of-control racial tensions** the white suburbanites in the Republican parts of St. Louis County aren't swinging quite has hard against the GOP as most suburbs and Trump's race-baiting schtick still works pretty well in the St. Louis suburbs in a way it doesn't in most other suburbs outside of the cultural south (KC, MO and the St. Louis metro aren't really culturally southern the way somewhere like the bootheel is).  While it might not matter as much in turnout-driven special elections, it probably means Wagner isn't going anywhere despite the Democrats having at least one unexpectedly decent candidate running here and could also be a problem for McCaskill, come to think of it.

**Mainly due to a collection of fringe local activists claiming to be part of the Black Lives Matter movement despite having few actual ties to it and the suburban police departments actively  going out of there way to harass/threaten random suburban whites and African-Americans respectively for pretty much no reason beyond tit-for-tat games.

[InheritTheWind]

For somewhat distant gubernatorial races (but still relevant), Eric Greitens has a 41% approval rating in that Republican poll. Kind of jives with what I've seen in the state. I know of several Trump-curious people who hate Greitens. Problem is, the Democratic bench in the state is weak.

My best friend at law school is from Ladue (a conservative, fairly racist suburb of St. Louis which happens to also have a higher median household income than any other city in the state) whose friends from Missouri are almost all very right-wing Republicans* and he says that the opinions of most Republicans (including hardcore Trumpists) he knows in suburban St. Louis regarding Grietens range from "meh, that guy seems sketchy but I can live with him" to "seriously, f*** that guy, he's incompetent and only cares about running for President."  This anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt, but I think Grietens could actually have some real trouble if the Democrats can recruit a strong candidate in 2020 (Kander might work, but he's been on TV a lot and could be painted as having become a media talking head, so we might want someone new).  Grietens seems to have had a pretty rough year as Governor while simultaneously going Full Jindal before he even won re-election.

*IDK if it's just Ladue, but I think Democrats have a bit of a heavier lift in Missouri if what he's said is true than many other states.  It sounds like Kansas City's suburbs (in Missouri and especially Kansas, which apparently has the more educated/affluent portions of the Kansas City metro for the most part) are already filled with Republicans planning to vote Democratic for Congress because of Trump (and that was before SALT) which is part of why I'm bullish on our chances in KS-3 with Neidermann despite Yoder being a strong incumbent.  However, if my friend is to be believed (and I suspect he's right about this), it sounds like due to out-of-control racial tensions** the white suburbanites in the Republican parts of St. Louis County aren't swinging quite has hard against the GOP as most suburbs and Trump's race-baiting schtick still works pretty well in the St. Louis suburbs in a way it doesn't in most other suburbs outside of the cultural south (KC, MO and the St. Louis metro aren't really culturally southern the way somewhere like the bootheel is).  While it might not matter as much in turnout-driven special elections, it probably means Wagner isn't going anywhere despite the Democrats having at least one unexpectedly decent candidate running here and could also be a problem for McCaskill, come to think of it.

**Mainly due to a collection of fringe local activists claiming to be part of the Black Lives Matter movement despite having few actual ties to it and the suburban police departments actively  going out of there way to harass/threaten random suburban whites and African-Americans respectively for pretty much no reason beyond tit-for-tat games.

Yes, I have loose roots from metro St. Louis, and most of what you wrote is true. Also true about the KC suburbs. There's much less racial tension going on in that part of the state. Though I do still expect some swing in the St. Louis suburbs this year and in 2020. Whether it will be significant, idk.

A lot of Greitens' problems stem from, as you pointed out, the fact he doesn't really seem that engaged in Missouri and is looking to run for President down the line, and it's transparently obvious he wants to do that. Combine that with the fact that trifectas have a tendency to overreach (RTW legislation, other batsh**t crazy stuff the legislature has come up with) and the feeling that Missouri is turning into a Brownback's Kansas 2.0 situation and you get a lot of otherwise conservative people that dislike Greitens. He's an aloof pretty boy. Even worse is he filled his administration with incompetent people who have never worked in prior administrations and he has a huge ego to the point where he probably is ignorant of the fact that he's turning so many people off.

I could envision a scenario where Democrats topple him in 2020 even if Trump is carrying the state handily again. Who that candidate is is anyone's guess. Nicole Galloway (if she wins her full term as State Auditor this year--Big if)? A self-funding businessman who can portray himself as a social moderate/conservative? A random state legislator (probably has to be someone who can connect somewhat to rural Missouri even though there's literally only one Democrat from rural Missouri left in the legislature. A veteran from the cities/suburbs could do it). Kander has gone too NATIONAL LIBERAL HERO to be an effective opponent against Greitens and his aloofness. Koster is an inauthentic, pandering doofus. Ben Harris could be an intriguing candidate. He's termed out of the state House in 2018 (last rural Democrat), but he'd have to prove his fundraising chops, and IDK if he'd want it. He's pro-life and pro-gun. Kander's near-win in 2016 showed that you don't necessarily need to win any rural counties to win statewide, but you can't get blown out and only get 15-25% of the vote in rural counties like HRC did across the board. The path is to get about 35% of the vote in rural/exurban areas statewide, hit 60%+ in St. Louis County, 2/3 in Jackson and win Clay and Platte comfortably while fighting to a draw in St. Charles County and Jefferson County.

P.S. fwiw, my Trump-loving, Fox News watching parents love Nicole Galloway and the work she’s been doing as State Auditor and they are planning on voting for Hawley for Senate and Galloway for Auditor. Funny how good governance can get you goodwill from unlikely sources I guess.

Well, now Greitens has a far bigger problem on his hands. Do you think he'll make it to 2020?

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/cynthia-nixon-challenge-cuomo-democratic-primary-article-1.3766162

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[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Speaking of Missouri, does anyone know about the MO Dem Party chair Stephen Webber? He's served in the state house in the past, and under his watch the Dems nearly won multiple statewide offices despite Trump's megacoattails in the presidential race. He's also young, attractive, and was a sergeant in the Marine Corps. Electorally he strikes me as a Kander 2.0 just in case the original screws up somewhere along the way

[junior chįmp]

Blue Wave imminent for South Dakota

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[GlobeSoc]

Blue Wave imminent for South Dakota

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Odd. But I guess that's possible if South Dakota is angered by the corruption referendum issue, or he's running literally the best campaign in the country.

[Cactus Jack]

Blue Wave imminent for South Dakota

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Holy s**t, that'd be a ton of money for a Republican in SD. Someone get Kamala on the line!

[Young Conservative]

Blue Wave imminent for South Dakota

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 that'd be a ton of money for a Republican in SD. Someone get Kamala on the line!

Can't find Noem's numbers, but State Attorney General Jackley raising over 1,000,000 in 2017. The current governor raised 880,000 in 2017- and he isn't even running, so his money likely goes to the South Dakota GOP.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Speaking of Missouri, does anyone know about the MO Dem Party chair Stephen Webber? He's served in the state house in the past, and under his watch the Dems nearly won multiple statewide offices despite Trump's megacoattails in the presidential race. He's also young, attractive, and was a sergeant in the Marine Corps. Electorally he strikes me as a Kander 2.0 just in case the original screws up somewhere along the way

Webber lost a campaign in 2016 for a state senate seat that Hillary Clinton actually won, so that doesn't bode too well for him. He actually wasn't party chairman until after the November 2016 elections. In any case, he'd probably be a B-list challenger to BDSM-loving Erotic Eric and would honestly probably beat him. I think Greitens is DOA in a general election now against an able Democrat.

Greitens isn’t gonna make it through the primary, methinks.

[ethanforamerica]

For somewhat distant gubernatorial races (but still relevant), Eric Greitens has a 41% approval rating in that Republican poll. Kind of jives with what I've seen in the state. I know of several Trump-curious people who hate Greitens. Problem is, the Democratic bench in the state is weak.

My best friend at law school is from Ladue (a conservative, fairly racist suburb of St. Louis which happens to also have a higher median household income than any other city in the state) whose friends from Missouri are almost all very right-wing Republicans* and he says that the opinions of most Republicans (including hardcore Trumpists) he knows in suburban St. Louis regarding Grietens range from "meh, that guy seems sketchy but I can live with him" to "seriously, f*** that guy, he's incompetent and only cares about running for President."  This anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt, but I think Grietens could actually have some real trouble if the Democrats can recruit a strong candidate in 2020 (Kander might work, but he's been on TV a lot and could be painted as having become a media talking head, so we might want someone new).  Grietens seems to have had a pretty rough year as Governor while simultaneously going Full Jindal before he even won re-election.

*IDK if it's just Ladue, but I think Democrats have a bit of a heavier lift in Missouri if what he's said is true than many other states.  It sounds like Kansas City's suburbs (in Missouri and especially Kansas, which apparently has the more educated/affluent portions of the Kansas City metro for the most part) are already filled with Republicans planning to vote Democratic for Congress because of Trump (and that was before SALT) which is part of why I'm bullish on our chances in KS-3 with Neidermann despite Yoder being a strong incumbent.  However, if my friend is to be believed (and I suspect he's right about this), it sounds like due to out-of-control racial tensions** the white suburbanites in the Republican parts of St. Louis County aren't swinging quite has hard against the GOP as most suburbs and Trump's race-baiting schtick still works pretty well in the St. Louis suburbs in a way it doesn't in most other suburbs outside of the cultural south (KC, MO and the St. Louis metro aren't really culturally southern the way somewhere like the bootheel is).  While it might not matter as much in turnout-driven special elections, it probably means Wagner isn't going anywhere despite the Democrats having at least one unexpectedly decent candidate running here and could also be a problem for McCaskill, come to think of it.

**Mainly due to a collection of fringe local activists claiming to be part of the Black Lives Matter movement despite having few actual ties to it and the suburban police departments actively  going out of there way to harass/threaten random suburban whites and African-Americans respectively for pretty much no reason beyond tit-for-tat games.

Yes, I have loose roots from metro St. Louis, and most of what you wrote is true. Also true about the KC suburbs. There's much less racial tension going on in that part of the state. Though I do still expect some swing in the St. Louis suburbs this year and in 2020. Whether it will be significant, idk.

A lot of Greitens' problems stem from, as you pointed out, the fact he doesn't really seem that engaged in Missouri and is looking to run for President down the line, and it's transparently obvious he wants to do that. Combine that with the fact that trifectas have a tendency to overreach (RTW legislation, other batsh**t crazy stuff the legislature has come up with) and the feeling that Missouri is turning into a Brownback's Kansas 2.0 situation and you get a lot of otherwise conservative people that dislike Greitens. He's an aloof pretty boy. Even worse is he filled his administration with incompetent people who have never worked in prior administrations and he has a huge ego to the point where he probably is ignorant of the fact that he's turning so many people off.

I could envision a scenario where Democrats topple him in 2020 even if Trump is carrying the state handily again. Who that candidate is is anyone's guess. Nicole Galloway (if she wins her full term as State Auditor this year--Big if)? A self-funding businessman who can portray himself as a social moderate/conservative? A random state legislator (probably has to be someone who can connect somewhat to rural Missouri even though there's literally only one Democrat from rural Missouri left in the legislature. A veteran from the cities/suburbs could do it). Kander has gone too NATIONAL LIBERAL HERO to be an effective opponent against Greitens and his aloofness. Koster is an inauthentic, pandering doofus. Ben Harris could be an intriguing candidate. He's termed out of the state House in 2018 (last rural Democrat), but he'd have to prove his fundraising chops, and IDK if he'd want it. He's pro-life and pro-gun. Kander's near-win in 2016 showed that you don't necessarily need to win any rural counties to win statewide, but you can't get blown out and only get 15-25% of the vote in rural counties like HRC did across the board. The path is to get about 35% of the vote in rural/exurban areas statewide, hit 60%+ in St. Louis County, 2/3 in Jackson and win Clay and Platte comfortably while fighting to a draw in St. Charles County and Jefferson County.

P.S. fwiw, my Trump-loving, Fox News watching parents love Nicole Galloway and the work she’s been doing as State Auditor and they are planning on voting for Hawley for Senate and Galloway for Auditor. Funny how good governance can get you goodwill from unlikely sources I guess.

Well, now Greitens has a far bigger problem on his hands. Do you think he'll make it to 2020?

He’s made it two weeks without resigning so far, so barring any new allegations, I think he avoids impeachment or resignation. Unless he gets escorted out of the mansion in handcuffs, which is probably what the BDSM fanatic wants.

I’d rate the general election against Greitens in 2020 a tossup if he makes it (this far out), and that might be generous to him. Dems need a solid candidate though.

To the extent of my knowledge, Kander is still pretty well liked in MO. I think that as a national rising star, he has money and name recognition. he even has 20% name recognition nationally which is better than most former MO SOSs can say. If he runs for president or declines for some other reason (Maybe a house bid) than Chris Koster could probably win a rematch,  Nicole Galloway perhaps. WLC or Emmanuel Cleaver maybe could be strong but they don't have much appeal to the racist or rural places. Same with Bruce Franks. As long as we don't nominate Charles Wheeler we should have an advantage.

[ethanforamerica]

Check out my recent on congressional recruitment thread