Potential State senate party switch in SD 27 In Texas Rio Grande?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1333463495548035073

More info to come later.

So far I asked YoungTexan and he told me Lucio is pretty socially conservative and nearly got primaried in a runoff this year.

[S019]

Yes, Lucio is trash and a literal DINO, but he is from Brownsville and even despite the RGV swing represents a seat that still probably went for Biden by double digits, he would be DOA, if  he party switched and ran for re-election, so if he does actually switch, I'd expect him to retire, though another factor here is that he has a son, who is more of a mainstream Dem, who is in the Texas House and may succeed him, him becoming a Republican, would put his son in a particularly awkward position of either facing allegations of not being a real Democrat or running against his own father, if he runs for re-election.

[lfromnj]

Yes, Lucio is trash and a literal DINO, but he is from Brownsville and even despite the RGV swing represents a seat that still probably went for Biden by double digits, he would be DOA, if  he party switched and ran for re-election, so if he does actually switch, I'd expect him to retire, though another factor here is that he has a son, who is more of a mainstream Dem, who is in the Texas House and may succeed him, him becoming a Republican, would put his son in a particularly awkward position of either facing allegations of not being a real Democrat or running against his own father, if he runs for re-election.

One word: Redistricting

Not saying he couldn't still lose but if he actually switched, definitely expect a shore up.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Not enough population in rural RGV to draw a republican state senate seat without breaking the VRA by including too many rural whites.

[Indy Texas]

Lucio introduced a bill to abolish the death penalty literally just last week.

He wouldn't be doing stuff like that if he was gearing up to switch parties.

He's a shrewd, cunning old machine pol - not someone like Jeff Van Drew.

[GALeftist]

Without getting too far into the weeds, one thing which I think hampers Republican redistricting in the RGV is the propensity of Latinos4Trump, or rather the uncertainty of their propensity. Maybe these new voters keep showing up and Starr is next on the chopping block... or maybe they were uniquely turned out by Trump and the RGV will snap back. No one knows, so I think it will be hard for Rs to be super aggressive here, since they risk future elections being very different from 2020.

[The Houstonian]

No party switch so far.

On a possibly related note, the Senate will be 18R-13D this session, as the Dems gained one seat last month. Since it takes 19 senators (3/5) to bring legislation to the floor, Dan Patrick wants to lower the threshold to 16 (1/2), having already had it decreased from 21 (2/3) to 19 in the past.