smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,380
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« on: November 12, 2016, 05:36:16 AM » |
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« edited: November 12, 2016, 05:40:30 AM by smoltchanov »
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Depends. And - very much depends. If 2016 taught me something it's that candidate's quality still frequently beats "bad label" in gubernatorial elections. Two best examples (which i will frequently use next 2 years) are, of course, Justice and Scott. Who could imagine that in fiercely Republican (on federal level) West Virginia Democrat will not only win, but not even narrowly (by more then 6%)? Or that in Vermont, which gave more then 28% margins both to Clinton and Leahy, Scott will overperform Trump by more then 20% and win relatively easily by 8.7%??? You may add Bullock here, who also overperformed Clinton in Montana heavily (14%). Even Cooper and Sununu have shown that candidate "tailored" for the state (moderate Democrat in Cooper's case, and relatively moderate Republican - in Sununu's), may squeeze enough extra votes needed for victory.
Generally "terrain" will favor Democrats. of course. But a lot will depends on candidates. Yes, Democrats may have chances even in Alabama, but - only with relatively conservative Democrat, because even Roy Moore will beat "flaming progressive" there. The same - in many other states...
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