Some good news for Dems: Will 2018 be a bloodbath for Republican governors?

[PAK Man]

Illinois should be highly competitive, and while I'm wary about making Rauner an underdog immediately, he's probably the most endangered GOP governor up for reelection in 2018. Lisa Madigan probably won't run (I think she's waiting for her dad, unpopular State House Speaker Mike Madigan, to retire/die before seeking a promotion) but there's plenty of other candidates that could run.

New Mexico is another excellent pickup opportunity. Martinez is easily the most prominent Republican in the state, and beyond her, the GOP doesn't have much of a bench, though Steve Pearce has publicly said he's considering. Democrats have a very deep bench in the state. Apparently Tom Udall has been seriously considering jumping in. AG Hector Balderas would also be a strong contender.

I think Democrats have about a 50-50 shot in Michigan, depending on who the candidates on either side are.

Nevada probably tilts R to start off with, but both sides have decent benches.

Dems already have Gwen Graham in Florida (she's "exploring," but I'd find it shocking if she didn't go for it in the end). Republican primary could be crowded. It's been 20+ years since Democrats have won the governor's seat here, though they came close in 2010 and 2014.

Wisconsin could be competitive, but Democrats would need a candidate. I have no idea who would be a strong contender against Walker (Feingold's probably kicking himself for not challenging Walker in 2014).

Ohio is very much the same way as Wisconsin. I don't know who Democrats would get to run (maybe Richard Cordray?)

If Branstad retires in Iowa, like I think he will, Democrats are going to need someone here to go for it. Much of the well-known Democrats have been decimated the past year or so, but there's still candidates like Pam Jochum and Liz Mathis who might be able to make it a race. I fully expect LG Kim Reynolds to run.

Maine and Alaska are both kind of wild cards in that Maine likes to run its independents (though I think Cutler said he wouldn't run again) and Alaska has Bill Walker as an actual independent governor. As far as I'm concerned, both start out as pure tossups.

Maryland and Massachusetts are going to be tricky for Dems to dislodge (especially Massachusetts, I feel, since they've had more GOP governors than Maryland).

As for places where Democrats will play offense, I feel like the seats most in danger would be Connecticut (especially if Malloy runs again), Colorado (depends on who runs on each side), and maybe Pennsylvania, though Tom Wolf seems like he's doing fine.