Some good news for Dems: Will 2018 be a bloodbath for Republican governors?

[Blackacre]

This map shows states where Republican governors are term-limited and will have open elections in 2018. Dark states are states with Republican incumbents that voted for Hillary Clinton. It seems pretty inevitable that Democrats will pick up a couple seats, especially considering that the party in opposition usually has some solid gains in midterms.

Even the states where the governors aren't term-limited are opportunities. Wisconsin elected Walker in a pair of Obama midterms, and while Trump did win it, Walker's probably in trouble.

[Blackacre]

IL, MI, ME, NM, FL, and MD all flipping is almost certain, and that would be pretty bad for Republicans. NV has several strong recruits(Heidi Gansert, Joe Heck, Brian Krolicki, etc.), a very popular Governor, and a strong GOP machine. OH has a pretty good recruit if Mary Taylor wins, a very popular Governor, and a very strong GOP machine. NH could only be flipped by Van Ostern or Pappas IMO. GA, KS, and SC all may have good chances of being flipped. Even AL has potential to flip if Roy Moore gets the GOP nomination.

LOL. As if a rather crazy event from one of my TLs has any realistic chance of actually happening.

You say that, but I had a 2016 timeline involving Al Franken and look whose name is starting to come up for 2020...

In terms of long-term strategy...the Democrats should focus the vast majority of their effort/resources to the upcoming gov elections.

There is a pretty large, well-funded redistricting protection effort coming together for 2018-2020, and that was even before this election. Now there are extraordinary opportunities.

In my eyes, thanks to Trump there is a very strong chance of 2 back-to-back waves if we pick the right candidates (inc. '20 presidential). We have 2 elections to build up significantly at the state level under what I imagine will be a very unpopular GOP presidency.

But, we'll see. I at least feel confident in saying that 2020 will not by any means be another redistricting rout for Democrats.

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As for the map, I like Da-Jon's, but I disagree with FL & KS, and I don't understand his rationale for Kentucky, Mississippi or North Dakota.

To be honest, I'm squeamish about gerrymandering hard after 2020 considering all the complaining we made after 2010 and 2012. Any state with a Dem trifecta in 2019 should create independent redistricting commissions a la CA and AZ.