Early Predictions: How many of the 10 red-state Democratic Senators survive 2018

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The list, for a reminder, ordered by the size of Trump's victories in the states:
Joe Manchin (WV)
Heidi Heitkamp (ND)
Jon Tester (MT)
Joe Donnelly (IN)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
Bill Nelson (FL)
Bob Casey (PA)
Tammy Baldwin (WI)
Debbie Stabenow (MI)

I'll say 4 survive, but it's too early to give exact predictions.

[/]

I'll say 4 survive, but it's too early to give exact predictions.

XD

[windjammer]

All

[jamestroll]

Manchin- Yes
Tester- Who knows
Donnelly- Difficult but depends on national climate.
McCaskill- Who knows
Sherrod Brown- depends on opponent and trumps popularity
Bill Nelson- Should be okay, strikes me as fairly strong.
Bob Casey- should be okay, but who knows.
Tammy Baldwin- Do not know much about her.
Dbebie Stabenow- Should be safe. always seems vulnerable but never really is.

Before people count Claire or any midwestern Democrat out, remember that the Midwest  is prone to wild swings up and down the ballot.

and this:

There is no way McCaskill can win re-election in 2012.. the state has trended to red.

There is no way Roy Blunt will be in a close race. Kander barely won SoS in 2012, and Blunt is uncontroversial.

It can't happen, a political novice has no way to defeat a popular attorney general who use to be a Republican.

McCaskill can not win, and no democrat can win statewide in Missouri in 2018 or 2020.. Trump just won the state by 20 points!

[NewYorkExpress]

Stabenow, Casey, Nelson, Baldwin and survive.

Manchin, Heitkamp, Donnelly, Tester, all lose, and McCaskill retires, with a Republican picking up the seat.

[smoltchanov]

Depends on political climate in 2018, which we may only guess now. My guess - from 4 to 7.

[jamestroll]

We can not really begin good speculation until at least next summer.

It is better to discuss potential candidates.

Only thing I can predict now is that Democrats will have a good night in one of the next several elections.

[Xing]

Unless Trump defies expectations and ends up with higher popularity than he has right now, nearly all of them will survive. Once the Republican Party becomes the status quo party, the floor is going to collapse underneath them.

[jamestroll]

I will also predict, but could well be wrong, that Democrats will not gain the Senate in 2018 but will likely gain the house.

[Orser67]

All are slight favorites individually, but I expect one or two to lose. Republicans would probably pick up WV if not for Manchin.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm so tired of predicting and being wrong, so for now on I'm going to call it guessing. I'm guessing Manchin, Donnelly, McCaskill, Tester, Brown, and Heitkamp go down, while Flake and Heller go down as well. Net R+4.

[LLR]

At least 8, not sure about Heitkamp and McCaskill

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Donnelly, McCaskill, Baldwin and Heitkamp all start out disfavoured in a neutral year. Brown and Tester are toss-ups. Stabenow is safe. Manchin is toss-up, but could just as easily win a landslide as lose in a crushing defeat.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Midterms are always ugly for the incumbent. I suspect most of these Senators will survive, and those who don't will be offset by GOP losses in Arizona and Nevada. These aren't necessary predictions as much as guesses based on the present. This can and likely will change.

Manchin: If he is ever in real danger, he'll switch parties. There has been chatter in WV according to some of my relatives there. Perhaps POTUS can enlighten me on these rumors. I don't think he'll jump ship but we'll see. Overall, I think Manchin can survive if he ties himself to Governor Justice. Tossup.

Heitkamp: I don't see how she survives. The GOP bench is huge, I'd imagine. Tilt to likely R.

Jon Tester: See Manchin. If Bullock survived, than he just needs to rip some pages from his playbook. Should be alright but the GOP has a good bench. Toss up, or tilt D.

Joe Donnelly: I think he is in real trouble. Likely R.

Claire McCaskill: She's a pretty talented Senator, I don't think she is as endangered as she is made out to be. Look at the Akin strategy-pure brilliance. She can get away with that again if she plays her cards right. Tossup to tilt D. A lot can happen, but I just can't envision her losing.

Sherrod Brown: He's going to be fine as long as he doesn't get caught up in identity politics and instead sticks to economic concerns. Lean D.

Bill Nelson: If he wants the seat, it is still his. Only Ron DeSantis appears to be a serious contender against him now that Jolly is out and CLC is eyeing the CFO race. I'm ranking it solid D even though actual polls make it appear to be a closer race. People value seniority despite the anti-establishment fever in the USA if the Senator at least pretends to care, and I don't think Bill Nelson is pretending. People hated Robert Byrd in WV and viewed him as part of the establishment, but reelected him for decades even when his popularity was down because of his power in Washington. Nelson is an institution in Florida. He'll be fine if he stays put.

Casey: Tilt D. Probably know the least about this race. I can't imagine Trump's momentum increasing in 2018, but then again, people thought Cameron would lose seats in 2015 and he ended up gaining them. A Republican can win here. I just can't think of any prominent Republican aside from Toomey.

Baldwin: I don't see any strong challengers for her aside from Sean Duffy or Paul Ryan (assuming he is no longer Speaker and is eyeing 2024), but every time I predict a race with solid candidates, it seems they never run. Likely D.

Stabenow: I'm assuming she'll face a weak opponent and win an easy reelection like she did in 2012. Lean D.

[Kingpoleon]

The list, for a reminder, ordered by the size of Trump's victories in the states:
Joe Manchin (WV)
Heidi Heitkamp (ND)
Jon Tester (MT)
Joe Donnelly (IN)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
Bill Nelson (FL)
Bob Casey (PA)
Tammy Baldwin (WI)
Debbie Stabenow (MI)

I'll say 4 survive, but it's too early to give exact predictions.

At least 6, almost certainly 7 will hold on.

[windjammer]

I'm so tired of predicting and being wrong, so for now on I'm going to call it guessing. I'm guessing Manchin, Donnelly, McCaskill, Tester, Brown, and Heitkamp go down, while Flake and Heller go down as well. Net R+4.

I understand this feeling too, but making predictions is so cool

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Heh, I remember people predicting, right after the 2008 election, Republicans are destined to get slaughtered in 2010.

Just keep that in mind.

[jamestroll]

Heh, I remember people predicting, right after the 2008 election, Republicans are destined to get slaughtered in 2010.

Just keep that in mind.

Exactly.... I think people said the map in 2010 was bad for Republicans, but I could be wrong.

But of course, Republicans will largely predict Republican victories and Democrats will largely predict Democratic victories..

[Dr. Arch]

Anti-incumbent midterm norms + incumbent senators = likely none or maybe 1

Also, a lot of those states aren't red. FL, PA, WI, MI are tossup states.

[Maxwell]

Manchin is probably in trouble - but it also depends on who Republicans nominate. I think Manchin is toast if he faces Evan Jenkins, he's in for a battle of his life against David McKinley or Patrick Morrissey but could win, and he's probably fine against Alex Mooney, Mac Warner, or *giggles* Bill Cole. I'd give this a Toss-Up, maybe even Tilt R because I doubt anyone from the "losers" category jumps into the race.

Heitkamp is not to be underestimated, but it'll be tough. The earliest suspected opponent for Heitkamp is Rick Becker - who was a candidate for Governor this year and tends to think of himself as libertarian. I doubt he gets the nomination. This is definitely a fascinating one to watch. Tilt R.

Tester benefits from Montana Democrats being awesome at elections, but also has to face midterms which are historically tough. The problem with Montana's Republican bench is that they're all empty suits - Ryan Zinke on down. Daines got incredibly lucky and still only won by 15 - which just isn't a great margin for a Republican in a deeply Republican state. This will be a single digit race either way, total toss-up.

I'd definitely be surprised if Donnelly won re-election. He hasn't made a strong impression either way, which can be good if you're like Portman, or can be bad if you're like Kirk. Somehow I think Donnelly ends up a bit more like Kirk. Plus Indiana has a dense and solid Republican bench. This is at least Lean R.

McCaskill is a rough and tumble campaigner but I think her days are numbered - I almost hope that she drops out and gives Kander another chance at a Senate seat. This seat is probably Lean R with McCaskill and Toss-up with Kander.

Sherrod Brown's politics may not jive with the new right-of-center leadership in the state, but I think it works in the areas that Clinton lost badly to Trump this time around. It'll be a tough fight either way, and I'm hoping somehow Mandel ends up sneaking away with the nomination because he proved to be a punk in the 2012 Senate race. Toss-up without Mandel, Tilt D with Mandel.

Nelson is probably fine as long as he's in this seat, but I'd proceed with caution. The reason? Carlos Curbelo. I think he's a strong rising star in the Florida Republican Party, can sway Miami voters who dumped Trump but fell in love with Beautiful Wonderful Amazing <3<3 Marco Rubio, and won re-election by a considerably wide margin even considering this years circumstances. I think he's the only Republican who could knock off Nelson. Lean D if Nelson stays, Tilt R if Nelson retires.

Casey is deeply uninspiring but is probably fine against any Republican challenge. I'm not sure who the bench here is for a Senate seat atm - Brian Fitzpatrick? Ryan Costello? maybe even someone lower on the list like John Rafferty? Something tells me he wants to go for Governor, but I suspect Wolf stays on to run for a second term, much to Casey's dread. Lean D.

Baldwin and Stabenow both strike me as functionally competent incumbents who will survive even if this becomes something of a bloodbath. The best Wisconsin Republicans can do is either of Scott Fitzgerald, a Scott Walker cheerleader, or Sean Duffy, a man who will be exposed as a clown when he runs for an office beyond a congressional seat. The best Michigan Republicans can do is... umm, someone help me out here? whoever the Lieutenant Governor is? one of the many congresscritters? someone we don't know yet? Likely D for both.

How many survive? 4, 5, maybe 6 if I'm being optimistic.

[jamestroll]

I am drafting a letter to McCaskill and Kander Maxwell.

Basically asking McCaskill to drop out, so Kander can have a shot. I think he would be better opportunity to hold the seat.

Also, Claire would be a better governor than Senator for such a red state.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Trump is unpopular and the Democrats have a good message (no DWS idiocy), 8 or 9 survive, and the Senate election is basically a wash.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

My early thoughts:

Joe Manchin (WV) Yes
Heidi Heitkamp (ND) Yes
Jon Tester (MT) Maybe
Joe Donnelly (IN) Maybe
Claire McCaskill (MO) No
Sherrod Brown (OH) No
Bill Nelson (FL) Yes
Bob Casey (PA) Yes
Tammy Baldwin (WI) No
Debbie Stabenow (MI) Yes

Underestimate the political talents and personal popularity of Tester, Heitkamp, and Manchin at your peril. And Donnelly has been quite moderate in his tenure in the Senate, although I believe he voted for Obamacare in the House, which of course will be used effectively against him, but I expect him to outperform most people's expectations unless he makes a big gaffe.

Heitkamp and Manchin also don't have Obamacare baggage since they took office after it was passed, and they've both pushed for energy policy that would benefit (and is popular in) their states. And Manchin isn't shy about criticizing his own party, particularly the environmental agenda that has hurt his home state's economy and seems to me, along with SJWs, to be the main reason why WV votes Republican.

Ryan Zinke would be a great candidate to go after Tester, though.

I really hope McCaskill doesn't retire so she can take the drubbing she deserved in 2012. I hope someone really runs up the score on her. I seriously think this race starts out at Likely R with her in it just because of all the soundbites of things she's already said that can be used against her (likely because she could get lucky and have a weak challenger come out of the GOP primary). Probably starts out at toss-up or lean R with the seat open.

As for my reasoning in Ohio, Trump did win the state by ten points, and it looks to have swung rightward to the point where being as liberal as Sherrod Brown probably won't fly with a midterm electorate. They also have a popular GOP governor, John Kasich, who I believe is term-limited and could run, as well as a pretty good bench below him if I understand things correctly.

Baldwin also seems too liberal for a midterm electorate in a state that just voted for Donald Trump and reelected Ron Johnson in a presidential year and elected Scott Walker twice.

Nelson, Casey, and Stabenow should be fine. If I was told one would lose and I had to pick which one I thought it would be, I guess I'd pick Nelson, but all three start out at Lean D at least.

I don't understand why so many people are approaching this election like they're already assuming it will be a Republican wave.

[JGibson]

Ordered from highest to lowest chance of survival (assuming no deaths or retirements)
Bill Nelson (FL)
Debbie Stabenow (MI)
Bob Casey (PA)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
Tammy Baldwin (WI)
Jon Tester (MT)
Joe Manchin (WV)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Heidi Heitkamp (ND)
Joe Donnelly (IN)

[Figueira]

It's quite possible that all of them survive, but I'd say a good early prediction is Manchin, Donnelly, and McCaskill lose, and the rest survive. Meanwhile the Democrats beat Heller and Flake.

Of the Clinton state Democrats, Menendez might also be vulnerable. I suppose King could theoretically be vulnerable to IRV oddities, but it's very unlikely since I suspect he'll get majority support. Klobuchar's seat is staying Democratic even if she retires (which she won't).