Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[brucejoel99]

Last PSA. (Read the Cruz v. Pence article above).

If you want ANY topics written about, post here or PM me. I'll try to squeeze it in. You have until Thursday night, because Friday night is election night.  

Just curious, but what's going on w/ our former Presidents? Are Carter/Bush 41 approaching 100 or have grim events occurred? What're Clinton (I'm curious about *both* Clintons actually), Bush 43, & Obama up to as well? And as for Trump, I just presume he's been staying out of the spotlight post-resignation (the same as what he was doing as of Inauguration 2021)?

EDIT: If possible, Veeps as well, please. Mondale, Quayle, Gore, Cheney, Biden? What's up w/ Uncle Joe & the gang (minus Bush 41 & Pence, of course, b/c Bush 41 was already counted as a President & Pence is busy w/ being the incumbent President & all)??

[brucejoel99]

I was wondering if you can do a article on Asian Voters, or each of the Minority Groups.


Also I was wondering about Mitt Romney, John Mccain.......



I find it funny that Paul Ryan was succeeded by Tim Ryan..... They are both Ryans.

I will cover the minority groups in the 2024 election round up.

Mittens Romney is still around, talking but less visible. McCain retired after the 2022 midterms. He's 86, he doesn't say much anymore. He's not happy about the GOP's trajectory and hasn't been since Trump was President.

As long as we're still asking about what's up w/ contemporary political figures, what's up w/ John Kerry??

[brucejoel99]

Alaska is split with a Democratic State House, a Republican Senate, and a centrist Independent Governor.

Just curious: who's the centrist Independent Gov. of AK elected in 2022 if Bill Walker was first elected in 2014 & AK has a term limit?

[brucejoel99]

Nice write-up, very enjoyable read...

Putin retired in 2022, after serving a final term as President of Russia.

Just a quick ?: Russia has a 6-year presidential term & the next election is scheduled for 2018... did he leave office 2 years early or is it supposed to be 2024 lol??

[brucejoel99]

Hey, so I've just been curious: what's the end status of the Supreme Court here?

Obviously, we know that Gorsuch will have replaced Scalia, but what else happens? Which justices leave the court; when do they leave the Court; by what means do they leave the Court (retirement or death); which President appoints their replacement; who are the replacements?? Very curious, so thanks if you can answer!

[brucejoel99]

Sen. Bernie Sanders, God rest his soul, was dead but was certainly happy about the election results, somewhere...

Who, what, when, where, why, how?? I just need to be ready; that'll be crushing

[brucejoel99]

Hey, so I've just been curious: what's the end status of the Supreme Court here?

Obviously, we know that Gorsuch will have replaced Scalia, but what else happens? Which justices leave the court; when do they leave the Court; by what means do they leave the Court (retirement or death); which President appoints their replacement; who are the replacements?? Very curious, so thanks if you can answer!

Well, Ginsburg was replaced by a conservative so the court is 6-3 conservative. Breyer hangs on all the way to Cordray replacing him in 2025. Roberts quits in 2030 and the United States gets its first Democratic Chief Justice in decades. Sam Alito joins him in retirement and the Court swings 5-4 liberal. Some of the conservative justices begin shifting to the left, to preserve their legacy on the Court and in the public eye.

By 2036, the Court is ruling as a liberal front.

Paul Watford (Chief Justice).... Replaced Roberts, 2030 (Appt'd. by Cordray) Sonia Sotomayor Elena Kagan Neil Gorsuch.......................... Replaced Scalia, 2017 (Appt'd. by Trump) Thomas Hardiman.................. Replaced Kennedy, 2017 (Appt'd. by Trump) Bill Pryor............................... Replaced Thomas, 2018 (Appt'd. by Trump) Raymond Kethledge................ Replaced Ginsburg, 2023 (Appt'd. by Pence) Sri Srinivasan......................... Replaced Breyer, 2025 (Appt'd. by Cordray) Ketanji Brown Jackson............. Replaced Alito, 2031 (Appt'd. by Cordray) So you'd reasonably say that this is what the Court may look like by the end of the Cordray Presidency??

[brucejoel99]

Above post is canonical.

 And we can have SD Dem if you want. I have no problem if people want to write more stories or continue this timeline or post more maps.

Correction to 2030: the Republican Party won New York in a sign of their 2036 victory which saw a 51-48% victory there and a 55-43% win in PA,  54-45% win in Connecticut. So 57-43.

Also, looking back at 2024's Senate results (Class 1 -- see pages 9-11 of the TL), the only reference to Montana's Senate election was in passing stating that it looked like the only possible GOP pickup.

Considering that the Democrats ended 2024 w/ 61 Senate seats but 8 pickups after having ended 2022 w/ 54 Senate seats, I (w/out any definitive result to the contrary) just assumed that Montana had gone GOP in 2024 Senate-wise, thereby precipitating 8 Democratic pickups but only a net gain of 7.

However, the above map of 2030's Class 1 shows Montana w/ a Democratic incumbent... so is the map wrong & MT really elected a GOP Senator in 2024 (thereby letting the math remain correct) or are the 2024 results as a whole wrong & the Democrats actually ended 2024 w/ 62 Senate seats (which would precipitate an edit to anything referencing the Democrats' ending of 2024 w/ 61 Senate seats).

[brucejoel99]

Hey, so I've just been curious: what's the end status of the Supreme Court here?

Obviously, we know that Gorsuch will have replaced Scalia, but what else happens? Which justices leave the court; when do they leave the Court; by what means do they leave the Court (retirement or death); which President appoints their replacement; who are the replacements?? Very curious, so thanks if you can answer!

Well, Ginsburg was replaced by a conservative so the court is 6-3 conservative. Breyer hangs on all the way to Cordray replacing him in 2025. Roberts quits in 2030 and the United States gets its first Democratic Chief Justice in decades. Sam Alito joins him in retirement and the Court swings 5-4 liberal. Some of the conservative justices begin shifting to the left, to preserve their legacy on the Court and in the public eye.

By 2036, the Court is ruling as a liberal front.

Paul Watford (Chief Justice).... Replaced Roberts, 2030 (Appt'd. by Cordray) Sonia Sotomayor Elena Kagan Neil Gorsuch.......................... Replaced Scalia, 2017 (Appt'd. by Trump) Thomas Hardiman.................. Replaced Kennedy, 2017 (Appt'd. by Trump) Bill Pryor............................... Replaced Thomas, 2018 (Appt'd. by Trump) Raymond Kethledge................ Replaced Ginsburg, 2023 (Appt'd. by Pence) Sri Srinivasan......................... Replaced Breyer, 2025 (Appt'd. by Cordray) Ketanji Brown Jackson............. Replaced Alito, 2031 (Appt'd. by Cordray) So you'd reasonably say that this is what the Court may look like by the end of the Cordray Presidency??

Reasonably, yes. Castro did a few appointments too so revise your list.

Paul Watford (Chief Justice).... Replaced Roberts, 2030 (Appt'd. by Cordray) Neil Gorsuch.......................... Replaced Scalia, 2017 (Appt'd. by Trump) Thomas Hardiman.................. Replaced Kennedy, 2017 (Appt'd. by Trump) Bill Pryor............................... Replaced Thomas, 2018 (Appt'd. by Trump) Raymond Kethledge................ Replaced Ginsburg, 2023 (Appt'd. by Pence) Sri Srinivasan......................... Replaced Breyer, 2025 (Appt'd. by Cordray) Ketanji Brown Jackson............. Replaced Alito, 2031 (Appt'd. by Cordray) Goodwin Liu........................... Replaced Sotomayor, 2034 (Appt'd. by Castro) Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar....... Replaced Kagan, 2035 (Appt'd. by Castro) Ok, so w/ Castro's appt's. ^^

[brucejoel99]

Regarding Montana I screwed up in my math. The math didn't survive from my paper notebooks to here. You're right. I suppose we can do one of two three things:

1.) Montana narrowly votes Republican for Senate Bad outcome as Cordray won the state. Tester also won in 2018 so highly unlikely he would lose. First elected in 2006 he could theoretically retire.

2.) Change the Senate totals to 62 instead of 61 and make 2026 a 3 seat gain instead of 4 and we're okay.

3.) Tester resigns and a Republican is appointed. Montana elected a Republican Governor in 2020 and 2024. In theory Tester, for whatever reason, resigns in late 2024, making the majority 61, not 62. This is the cleanest retcon. It happened in 2000 with Paul Coverdell's death in Georgia that reduced the Republican majority in the Senate from 55 to 54. As a libertarian State Montana isn't really projected to be a Democratic state down the line.

I'll pick whatever is recommended. Good catch on my math btw.

#3 works; only change re:math now would be 2030 really ending on a 58-42 Democratic Senate rather than 57-43, since...

2024: DEM 62 GOP 38 (D gain IN, WV, MO, TX, AZ, NV, MS, ND)
2024: DEM 61 GOP 39 (R gain MT* - Tester resigns; R replacement)"
2026: DEM 65 GOP 35 (D gain KY, NC, SC, MS)
2028: DEM 67 GOP 33 (D gain KY, MO)
2030: DEM 58 GOP 42 (R gain ND, MN, WI, MI, IN, OH, PA, NY, CT)

...tho I don't really see that as too much of an issue retcon wise lol

[brucejoel99]

Politico feature on Cordray & the Ohio governor's race

[brucejoel99]

Keep in mind, he’s still the POTUS. That happened. Jailing Trump isn’t going to change the fact that he knows every national security secret, all his predecessors dirty laundry, and so forth. He’s got the keys to the file cabinet. If Trump were exiled (lmao really Frodo) it locked up he’d sing like a bird, and I’d listen to everything he said. So will the rest of us who voted for him. He’s a bigger risk behind bars then he is on Palm Beach Islamd.

I suspect that Mar-A-Lago will end up being opened to the public on occasion for everyday admirers like yours truly to be received by him. It’s an ego thing. He’ll be like one of those decrepit old actresses from the Golden Age of Hollywood who invite the public into their dusty mansions to meet them and listen to stories. Ayn Rand did that too after she alienated most of her cult members before she died. Lefties will sneer and call it sad, but it’ll be pretty cool for the actual people. He has a habit of stopping his motorcade to greet supporters when he comes into town (I’m in Boynton, a suburb of WPB) and I know people who have literally been picked up in Secret Service vans to see him just because he saw their group a mile up A1A from Mar-A-Lago. It’s well documented, just google “Trump surprises supporters at Mar-A-Lago.” I’ve seen like three WPTV stories like this.

In the meantime, he has his business endeavors, buxom blondes, and golf outings to keep him busy. He’ll still keynote the RNC in 2024, he’ll still tweet his every inane thought, and will pump out ghost written books on the deep state conspiracy that he exposed or whatever.

Trump is always going to win one way or another. Even if he doesn’t hold on to office, he’s gonna live out his days truly believing he won in the end. And he’ll be right.

I don't care whether or not he believes he won in the end, but to actually say that it's right that he'll have won in the end is laughable, simply by virtue of the humiliation that is being forced out of office.

[brucejoel99]

As far as I can tell, Warren's the realigner. Interesting parallel to Reagan with the switching parties, and of course both of them are quite old.

I think you may be right. She's really the only major Democratic office holder that I can see picking up the progressive champion mantle at this point. And she does seem to be positioning herself for another run in 2024, most likely contingent on a Trump reelection or Biden stepping down after one term.

Granted, she's not from the Midwest where TD envisioned the next realigning President coming from, but none of the current Dem governors or senators from here really strike me as plausible fits for that role. Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin are possible exceptions, but Brown has likely hurt his progressive cred by coming out against Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal.  While Baldwin has never face a electoral defeat which was one of the other criteria outlined, but she is ideologically close to Sanders and Warren. 

Technically, some consider Oklahoma to be part of the Midwest, & sure, that's not where she represents but it's where she's from.

[brucejoel99]

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.

Are you sure now?

@The_Doctor: all of this has to have been it, right?

[brucejoel99]

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.

Are you sure now?

@The_Doctor: all of this has to have been it, right?

except Biden is not a left wing populist like Cordray

I meant the crisis, but Idk, he's been co-opting some Bernie/Warren policies recently. Let's see what happens if/when he gets to the White House.

[brucejoel99]

Uncle Joe Biden is still very active in Democratic politics and cancer research. In fact, the Democratic Party will be likely taking a road traveled by Joe Biden to attract populism. In many ways, the '24 elections will vindicate Biden's retail populism over Obama's intellectual technocracy, as '20 did. Expect Joe to be very happy in 2025. Joe Biden is the unsung hero of this saga.

Near-prescience, perhaps?

[brucejoel99]

Uncle Joe Biden is still very active in Democratic politics and cancer research. In fact, the Democratic Party will be likely taking a road traveled by Joe Biden to attract populism. In many ways, the '24 elections will vindicate Biden's retail populism over Obama's intellectual technocracy, as '20 did. Expect Joe to be very happy in 2025. Joe Biden is the unsung hero of this saga.

Near-prescience, perhaps?

If you think about it, Biden pretty much checks off the qualities that TD listed for a realigning President to have: older, extensive experience in elected office, suffered several electoral defeats, and is from the same region as the foreshadowing President (he represented DE obviously in the Senate but is from PA and is culturally Midwestern).

Yes but Biden is not someone who like say Reagan and FDR were  ideologically different than the previous consensus .

FDR was a fiscal conservative until he became President, but he stepped up to meet the moment. Reagan was untethered from the prior consensus. Either type of person could work as the realignment figure.

Yeah, this. When extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures, even moderates can turn out to be the right person for the times. I have no doubt that Biden would prove to be the same, regardless of how unlikely that may have seemed to some once upon a time.