Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[Frodo]

I can actually see this happening. 

And please, do continue with this timeline.  It is one of those underappreciated Atlas jewels. 

[Frodo]

Any updates?

[Frodo]

So it looks like the Republicans hold on to the White House another four years...  

Could this be the year Minnesota finally votes Republican?  Along with the GOP taking the rural congressional districts in that state that voted for Trump last time? 

[Frodo]

(Unless requested, we'll skip over the full gubernatorial and congressional results unlike last time.)

I'm requesting it.  I'd also like to know about the legislatures, since 2020 (like 2010) is a redistricting year.

[Frodo]

(Unless requested, we'll skip over the full gubernatorial and congressional results unlike last time.)

I'm requesting it.  I'd also like to know about the legislatures, since 2020 (like 2010) is a redistricting year.

OK I'll put up results too for these later today. Then a meta explanation why Pence won, then a "article" writing why the GOP won. Then we move onto 2021.

Thanks!  I'm especially curious about a post-mortem on Minnesota, and the Midwest in general.

[Frodo]

Wouldn't Bernie Sanders be 83 by that point?  He would be older  than Reagan was when he took office by more than a decade.  I mean he's older than my dad by a couple of months.

He's only going to serve a single term, if that.  His age will catch up to him.  Which makes it imperative that we know who his running-mate is.

[Frodo]

After the 2022 midterms, did the incoming Democratic Congress move to permanently restrict the power of the President, or do we still have an 'imperial presidency' when President-elect Richard Cordray is inaugurated?

[Frodo]

This timeline is indeed one of the crown jewels of Atlas.   

[Frodo]

Great work, best timeline I've read in a long time!

Couple questions:

1) Who was in Cordray first cabinet?
2) With massive majorities, did the Democrats finally admit DC and Puerto Rico as states?
3) Did we eventually get to Mars as planned in the 2030's?

1) I have no clue. It's really hard to tell you because in ten years, there's probably a roster of new Democratic office holders and civil servants who have made their mark during the Trump - Pence years. So I couldn't tell you with any reasonable faith in my prediction.

2) Aha! I did think about this. DC was admitted as a state, yes, in around 2029. Puerto Rico I choose to let the reader decide this because Puerto Rico hasn't been clear if they want to join the Union or not. The Senate Democrats benefited from this the most. The GOP objected but y'know, the GOP is a rump party in the late 2020s.

3.) Yes. We did get to Mars. The story of the next majority - not that I plan to write it - is that we became a vastly more educated, space faring civilization oriented around things like space exploration, technology advancements, and things that weren't easily automated. By 2040, civic society has been so radically changed that a lot of menial jobs are phased out. We're walking around in driverless busses and trains and cars and the emphasis on the labor market is intellectual skills. This is a huge global problem because we have 11 billion people and not everyone can be a scientist, doctor, lawyer, whatever and a ton of countries don't have the resources we do to adjust to this brave new world. But that's a story for another time.

How about foreign policy?  I know that during Trump/Pence years, North Korea imploded and China is in a state of turmoil.  Did anything come of that?  How about Russia -is Putin still in power?  How much damage did the previous administration do to our standing as the world's lone superpower by the time Richard Cordray was inaugurated?  Did he heal the damage and then some? 

Just paint us a picture of the world beyond our borders and shores. 

[Frodo]

Trump strikes at North Korea Regime; Disables Nuke Program

(October 2017) -- (Washington, D.C.) -- President Donald Trump struck at the North Korean regime in a surprise attack at dawn (Pyonyang time) and disabled the nuclear program that the regime had built. After months of warning and negotiations between the United States and China, the Americans had decided to unilaterally disarm Kim Jong-Un’s nuclear capabilities.

President Obama had advised his successor that the North Korean nuclear program would need to be seriously curtailed or else the region faced imminent danger. Soon after President Trump was inaugurated, the United States held high level secret talks with the People’s Republic of China. They put pressure on Beijing to rein in Pyonyang and to force Kim Jong-Un to dismantle his program. The Chinese stalled, angry at the United States’ economic retaliatory measures and for months, talks dragged out without resolution.

In early September, the National Security Council convened to draw up plans to take out the Korean nuclear missile program unilaterally. In a series of limited strikes, the United States would attack and take out North Korea’s missile program - the first time any military power had taken action against another military power for the express purpose of destroying its nuclear program. The President, not usually a man prone to military action despite all his bravado, approved the limited strikes and advised his Council that the Chinese would need to be onboard with the program.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson shuttled between Washington and Beijing, brokering a high level deal where the Chinese agreed to turn over intelligence regarding the program and to refuse to come to North Korea’s aid in the aftermath. In response, the United States would give in on key concessions regarding China’s dominance in the South Pacific. Japan’s Abe Shinzo was also appraised and signed off on the mission as did the South Korean government.  

In early October, the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan was sent to the naval base in Yokosuka, Japan and prepared for the mission. In final secret negotiations, Kim Jong-Un refused to give up his nuclear warheads and Washington walked away. Believing that the talks would continue on the North Koreans were in the dark.

On the morning of October 12, 2017, U.S. bomber planes flew over the secret facilities and struck them, decisively and with precision. Before a single nuclear warhead could be fired, U.S. warplanes had taken out the facilities, rendering North Korea without the capabilities to take out South Korea or Japan. Shortly after the 8:00 bombing runs, the Chinese Ambassador to North Korea notified the government that China would not help in any retaliation against the United States - and indeed, were action to be taken to that end, China would respond with military action against the regime.

Furious, Kim Jong-Un tried to rally the military for an armed invasion of South Korea. But without the nuclear warheads and with the USS Reagan sitting offshore,  the regime’s leader was not in much of a position to argue. He reluctantly agreed, within 48 hours, to allow the United Nations to investigate freely any nuclear facility within the country, and to allow international inspectors free rein. The regime was seriously destabilized by the attack and Kim Jong-Un’s power was under siege. Within a few years, the North Korean regime would fall and Kim Jong-Un would be forced to flee overseas for his personal safety.

At home, the Trump Administration was applauded for its decisive action on the North Korean nuclear program. China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea all lauded the White House for decisively ending a threat to regional stability and for a time, the President would be praised as a decisive leader.

There are times I wonder whether Trump or someone in his administration read your timeline...

[Frodo]

Given that Donald Trump is essentially Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter rolled into one, I have to ask this:

What do you think will be Trump (or Pence)'s version of the Iran hostage crisis? 

[Frodo]

3 states left

edit: 4 states, including the pineapple man's dungeon

I'm almost tempted to say that West Virginia is returning to its traditional Democratic allegiance when I look at eastern Kentucky and Tennessee, but then I see eastern Ohio, western Virginia and Pennsylvania...

[Frodo]

Do you see Roe v Wade being overturned in this timeline sometime during either Trump or Pence's administrations? 

[Frodo]

What is the state of world affairs around 2070?  Would like some context. 

[Frodo]

All credit for the table of contents goes to "NJ is better than TX." Thank you!

Between Two Majorities

The Divided States of America - The Trump Administration
0. Prelude: Election Night 2016
1. The Forty Seventh President of the United States and the Great Realignment
2. Situating the Trump Coalition and the Two Majorities
    2a. Part I
    2b. Part II
3. The Trump Coalition: Alt-Right v. the Establishment
4. The Trump White House and Cabinet: A Band of Brothers
5. Donald John Trump Sworn in as 45th President of the United States- and the First Five Months
6. Democratic Civil War Underway
7. RyanCare: A Huge Fight on the Floor
8. Dysfunction in Trump Washington
9. Illiberal Donald Trump: Why the Dictatorship Never Happened
10. The Great Scandal of 2018
11. Between Two Majorities: The Trump Presidency (2016-To Date (2018))
12. The Trump Economy: 2017 to 2018
13. State of the World: 2017 to Late 2018
14. The Media and Donald Trump
15. Race in the Age of Trump
16. GOP Gains in Senate; Loses in House and Governorships
17. New Revelations about Trump Scandals ... and Russia

The Calm - The Pence Administration, Part I
18. The Trump Administration Ends; Pence Prepares to Become 46th President
19. Vice President Michael R. Pence Becomes 46th President; Restores Stability to White House
20. Trump: Doomed from the Start?
21. President Pence and the New Age of Stability
22. Obama and Donald Trump: Political Twins as Outsiders
23. Economy Slowly Recovers
24. Global Nationalist Storms Abound
25. Democrats Look Ahead to 2020: Brown and Cuomo Square Off
26. Democratic Nomination Settled: Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)
27. Schumer, McConnell negotiate ObamaCare Deal
28. The Dog That Didn't Bark: Immigration and the Wall
29. The GOP takes on the Opioid Epidemic
30. Trump strikes at North Korea Regime; Disables Nuke Program
31. 2020 Conventions: Brown/Malloy v. Pence/Haley
32. Pence v. Brown: A Brutal Fall Campaign
33. Election Night 2020 Coverage
    33a. Presidential Results
    33b. Senate Results
    33c. Gubernational Results

The Storm - The Pence Administration, Part II
34. President Pence Given a Full Term
    34a. Author Commentary, Part I
    34b. Author Commentary, Part II
35. President Michael R. Pence Takes Oath of Office
36. A Cultural and Technological Sea Change...Or the First Part of the Realignment
37. China's Government Reels as Economy Collapses
38. China's Government Collapsing; World Responding with Alarm
39. Illinois Insolvent, Asks Federal Government for Aid
40. President Pence Does an About-Face, Urges Congress to Help States
41. Economy Facing Recession; President Addresses Nation as Government Shuts Down
42. Country Faces Prolonged Shutdown; Pence Looking "Crippled"
43. Nationwide Protests as Pence Administration Flounders
44. Budget Resolution in Sight; Democrats Back Down for "National Unity" as GOP "Compromises"
45. Bernie "Barry Goldwater" Sanders' Long Game
46. Democrats Becoming Party of South (+Southwest) while GOP Adopts "Northern Strategy"
47. Fall Portends Brutal Midterms
48. Blue Crush: Democrats Make Massive Midterm Gains
    48a. Midterm Results
49. Democrats Roar into Capitol Hill in 2023 and take levers of power
50. Democratic Congress and President Pence Lock Horns
51. The Tax Cut of 2022 is a Failure

Realignment - The 2024 Elections
52. The Big Three Seeking the Democratic Presidential Nomination
53. President Pence Faces Primary Challenge from Senator Cruz
54. Cruz and Pence Struggle while Cordray Holds Lead in Democratic Primaries
55. Ohio Governor Richard Cordray Democratic Nominee for President
56. Pence Turns Back Cruz as divided GOP stumbles into 2024
57. Democrats Nominate a President and See Land of Canaan
58. GOP Trudges into Atlanta for their Convention a Divided Party
59. Cordray-Castro squares off against Pence-Haley
60. Cordray, Democrats Poised for Historic Victory
61. Election Night 2024
    61a. Final Update
    61b. Presidential and Senate Results
    61c. Gubernational Results
    61d. Primary Maps

Phoenix - The Cordary Administration
62. President-Elect Cordray's Victory and Why
    63a. Election 2024 Meta: Part I
    63b. Election 2024 Meta: Part II
64. Epilogue
65. Richard Cordray Inaugurated as 47th President of the United States

Supplementals
66. Foreign Policy and the Debt Leadup
67. The Democrats and Trump: 2017-2018
68. Why RyanCare Failed
69. Senate Elections: 2026, 2028, 2030
70. Climate Change: The Great Global Warming Threat
71. The Current Party System: Conservative Neoliberal Nationalist Populism
72. Prediction Update Through May 2017
73. The Weakest Realignment of American History and Why:
    73a. Part Ia
    73b. Part Ib
    73c. Part II
74. How the Reagan macroeconomic regime will create another realignment in the 2020s (By Technocratic Timmy)
75. #TwoPaths: The Republican Populist Third Party Candidacy.
76. The Current Party System: Conservative Neoliberal Nationalist Populism  
77. County by County Map: The Realignment
78. The Great Crisis of 2021
79. Populist versus Business coalitions: An American History.

With the tax cuts in place, it looks like the stage is being set for that realignment:

How debt could blow up the Trump economy

The question now is whether that eventual blow-up occurs roughly at about the time predicted here. 

[Frodo]

TD, do you see a rising birthrate similar to what we had in the 1980s with the onset of the realignment?  And Democrats I assume are going to pass the 2013 immigration reform bill once they regain the trifecta, so do you also see immigration numbers going up as well?   

[Frodo]

New Revelations about Trump Scandals ... and Russia

Just thought I'd check up on this timeline and see how well it is lining up with reality.  A few details are a bit off (McCain is no longer with us, for example), but the overall storyline is matching up well with current events.

And just to remind everyone, sometime later this year it is predicted here that Trump will step down and Pence will step up to replace him.   

[Frodo]

bump

[Frodo]

bump

I was thinking the same thing.

I'm getting ahead of myself obviously, but I am kind of amused as to how relatively accurate his prognostication of the 2020 Democratic primary has been thus far. Warren and Biden seem to be fulfilling the roles IRL that he envisioned for Brown and Cuomo. Not to mention his prediction of Booker's and Hickenlooper's respective candidacies being flops turning out to be the case got a chuckle from me.

In the original timeline, he had Sherrod Booker beating Andrew Cuomo (the establishment candidate) to win the nomination, and then going on to lose (narrowly) to President Mike Pence.  Extrapolating that to real-life, that means Elizabeth Warren is favored to beat Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination, but then losing to Pence.  Reading further, we find that whoever wins in 2020 will be winning a poisoned chalice with the bottom falling out not just economically but also internationally as well, not unlike President Jimmy Carter's final years.  

[Frodo]

In the event Trump leaves office and Pence succeeds him, how can you see Pence keeping Trump's cronies when most of them are basically crooks ensnared in one or more scandals?  He should fire the lot of them, and have Mitch McConnell confirm his own appointees ASAP before the election. 

[Frodo]

Stacey Abrams, perhaps, assuming she wins the Georgia governorship in 2022? 

[Frodo]

Again, as I've said, the question is: "What is the deal cut?" I think that at some point, with the myriad array of investigations into Trump, the big question is how that all goes away and Trump is allowed to become a former president without having to be hounded. As long as he is president, that will never stop (mostly because of his own stupidity). I fully expect McConnell, Pelosi, and Pence to negotiate this one. Remember, the Governor of New York is a Democrat, and so Pelosi has to be involved actively to decide how Trump leaves. Trump needs not only a federal pardon but also the New York Democrats to stand down on investigating him. Ergo, Pelosi's role. I think this deal is cut between the House impeachment and the Senate trial.

If there is a deal for Trump to avoid prosecution, congressional Democrats should push for a hard bargain in which Donald Trump and his family self-exile to any country of their choosing (preferably for them, one that doesn't have an extradition treaty with the United States), and give up their US passports and citizenship upon arrival.    

[Frodo]

One can dream.... 


By the way, what does BTM stand for? 

I think first, Trump is now firmly on the path to impeachment/resignation. I think the Bill Taylor testimony was highly detailed and probably has given enough evidence to nail the President on a quid pro quo on the Ukraine matter. The irony, Trump was probably on track to a second term defying BTM before this.

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

I hope he is wrong about realignment but not about Trump being impeached . The best way for that to happen in my opinion is for the Democrats to narrowly win in 2020 while they fail to take the senate or if they do , take it with Manchin being the deciding vote.

Then in 2024 the Republicans can come back with Haley or DeSantis

They're not events in isolation. A Trump impeachment is part of the realignment process. The underlying factors in both are the same. There's a reason the Republican Party is weakening and has been so since 2008. (It's like, the entire logical chain of BTM from 2017 to 2025).

[Frodo]

I think what will probably seal the deal for a President Mike Pence if Trump were impeached and forced to resign either before the end of the year or within the first week of January, would be China's willingness to make a trade deal with him early in the coming year, which would bolster the US economy well ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

Already, they are close:

US and China are close to finalizing some sections of trade deal, US trade representative says

[Frodo]

How is it looking?