Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[The_Doctor]

Epilogue (the inauguration will come after this, mostly because I want to keep the final lines as the last lines for this timeline). No international predictions as that's a bit too hard (I will say I have said we are on the road to a third global conflict though).

A little crazy, I know, but hey, some of you wanted an epilogue so ...

Richard Cordray became the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025. Here is a short account of what happened afterwards. The United States quickly embraced a number of long held liberal agenda items, including Medicare for all, reforms to the nation’s tax code, universal college education, and a reworking of the nation's financial system. The President also took on Wall Street, reworking the nation’s financial system and reinstated an even more powerful Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. After the shock of 2022, the economic boom that was launched in 2027 continued on for quite a while.

As the automation age matured, progressives pushed for a universal basic income to supplement the income of the working population, as more and more machines replaced the workforce. Driverless cars became the norm as did driverless trucks. Software and technology became rapidly more advanced, buttressed by government funding for R&D and the universal college education financed by the federal government. The population, by 2045, had become rapidly more college educated and the economic boom that resulted from this was considerable.

By 2040, universal basic income, a flirtation by the left, became mainstream, as liberals sought to manage the worst effects of the automation age and to give everyone an income on which they could live and afford. This was the major battle of the Democratic White House in the 2040s as conservatives howled. But it became woven into the fabric of society, replacing Social Security.

Immigration laws, however, did not change until the 2040s. Working class whites were resentful of the newcomers and Cordray did not want to upset them. Therefore, many of the immigration laws passed under Trump remained on the books, and for the next 30 years, the United States remained among the most restrictive globally. Likewise, on trade, the Democrats were not unabashed free traders, or globalists. They cautiously rewrote the international order and carefully managed trade deals that benefited both America and the working class but they were loath to embrace the unrestricted trade deals of the neoliberal era.

Chief Justice John G. Roberts swung to the left, near the end of Cordray's first term, as did a number of conservative justices. Eager to preserve the Court's legitimacy, especially after Cordray made the Court a foil during his first term, the judiciary shifted to the left, to step in line with the country's national mood. Cordray would appoint John G. Roberts' replacement and a number of conservative justices retired between the Cordray and Castro presidencies. By 2035, the Court was more liberal than conservative.

The Democrats gained an extra 4 seats in 2026, going from 61 to 65 seats and the GOP slipped to 115 seats in the House. This was partially because the GOP spent 2 years obstructing President Cordray and they were defending the lion’s share of seats from 2020. By 2028, when the President swept to re-election, he won 61% of the vote, and 506-32 (winning Tennessee, Indiana, and North Dakota).  After the re-elect, the rump Republicans reorganized and by 2030, they made major gains in Congress. But in a sign of the times, Vice President Castro defeated his Republican foe in 2032, winning the Presidency 52-46%.

In 2036, the Republicans adopted a pragmatic Northern strategy and dumping their (mostly dead) conservative evangelical Southern base, became a technocratic pragmatic Northern party, and swept to a large electoral majority, making inroads into long held Democratic urban areas and liberal areas (and backed by the college educated white cohort and upscale minorities). After 12 years of Democratic rule, the GOP took power, albeit with a Democratic Congress. The new President was a moderate conservative who kept much of the Cordray era reforms in place and governed like Bill Clinton from the 1990s.

The Democratic majority would be largely populist and rooted in the working class whites and minority coalition. The GOP would root itself with the college educated whites and upscale minorities. The new pragmatic GOP attracted many voters who were of a centrist stripe and had enough of the Cordray Deal.  But for the next generation the Democratic majority would be the nation’s national majority.

[The_Doctor]

Richard Adams Cordray Inaugurated as Forty Seventh President of the United States

January 20, 2025 -- Washington, D.C. At noon, Richard Adams Cordray, age 65, took the oath of office as the forty seventh President of the United States, as Peggy Cordray held the Bible for him. For the first time since 2009, Democrats controlled all the branches of government and the levers of political power - and had a mandate that was the largest since 1965. They had 61 U.S. Senators, 306 Members of Congress, 36 governorships, and complete control over 21 states. The GOP had 39 U.S. Senators, 129 House Members, and 13 governorships, and control over 12 states.

It was a far cry from 2016 and a stunning culmination for the 47th President of the United States. A former Ohio Treasurer and Attorney General who had lost three races (Congress in 1992, the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in 2000, and the 2010 Attorney Generalship), who had later become Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Cordray had a long political career. When President Donald Trump fired him in 2017 and undermined his agency, Cordray’s career seemed finished. Yet, he had come back from the political graveyard to win the Ohio governorship and used it to catapult himself to the Oval Office. An Ivy League Marshall scholar, he had clerked for conservative justices Anthony Kennedy and Byron White. (This would be a point the conservatives on the Supreme Court would find painful with irony as Cordray later successfully took on the conservatives on the Supreme Court to swing it to the left).

The new President had been a lifelong progressive, having gotten his start in politics as an intern for Senator John Glenn (D-Ohio), a lifelong populist liberal who had been an astronaut. (NASA would later credit Glenn’s influence on the President for financing a number of expensive NASA missions and standing by the agency when past presidents had cut the budget). His political career had been studded not by centrism but a populist brand of liberalism that had placed him at the right moment in 2024 and elevated him to the highest office in the land, at age 65. Like Ronald Reagan’s decades long immersion in conservative philosophy and Franklin Roosevelt’s 20 year schooling in progressive politics, the new President was well schooled in the progressive tradition. This would be an invaluable trait as he prepared to take on the Presidency.

That was apparent in the inaugural. Moments after the swearing in, the new President delivered a strident inaugural that stood in marked contrast to the Obama and Trump eras. Gone was the meek Democratic proclamations of bipartisanship and a nod to centrism. In was the bold liberalism of 1933 and 1965, with a pledge to do “great and bold things” for the “working man and woman.”  The President declared, “Government is the facilitator of a strong and independent society,” signaling his intent to use the federal bureaucracy and the political mandate he had gained to implement sweeping changes to the safety net and civic society. In a nod to the federal bureaucracy who he would soon command, the President extolled the “thousands of hardworking civil servants who gave their best to make sure the people of the United States are well served.” And in a nod to the populist tradition, he called for a technocratic and efficient government that would serve the American people and “put the wealth of the United States to work for the good of the people,” indicating that he would be taking on income inequality. And in a ringing line, he pointedly intoned “healthcare is not a privilege but a right.” Overseas, the President pledged to “carry forward the promise of America” and to “reinforce the bastions of democracy in a world too afraid to tackle the great challenges of our times.” (That was a rebuke of Trump’s isolationism and a reminder that the President was committed to tackling climate change).  

It was a fiery populist liberal speech that was a reflection of the mandate he had been given. If any more pointed reminders were essential, President Obama and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) were at center stage just feet away from the new President and Vice President.

The Democratic majorities in Congress were eager to take on this mantle, as well. Majority Leader Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Speaker Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) were strident liberals and their members hailed from states that had a strong populist undercurrent. In the House, especially, liberals had swept to power on the back of working class white districts and traditionally Democratic ones. The President’s own 57% win gave the new majority the kind of coherence that President Obama and President Trump never enjoyed. They knew the President had a mandate and a strong one at that.

Some said it was a story of between two majorities. That might be so, but it was just one chapter of a story of a great nation that believed that they held “certain unalienable rights” to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,” and that it held a “rendezvous with destiny” as a “shining city on a hill” and the “last best hope of Earth.”

[The_Doctor]

And done. You may use this timeline thread to debate, ask questions, theorize, comment, come back in eight years to see if I'm right or terribly wrong (you may mock me if I get it completely wrong). (Make it four to twelve years I guess actually, depending on the realignment as I have either Russ Feingold in 2020 or Rich Corday in '24 to '28?.
)

Thank you to Ted Bessell, Kingpoleon, KingSweden, Thunderbird, GoTfan, Deblano, Pericles, joju, Frodo, Virginia, Flying Spenstar, Devout Centrist, Sanchez, and a ton of other people (I'm sorry if I forgot your name here, really) who have read and helped and left feedback. The story has been in my mind since 2004 and so to flesh it out has been a pleasure and a long standing goal of mine.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

You ought to try your hand at another project here! This was among the best timelines we've ever had. I didn't always one hundred percent agree with your predictions, but more or less this is an incredibly well written and well thought out timeline.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I still can't believe it's actually done...

[Pericles]

Fabulous TL.

(Doesn't it say it goes to 2030 though?)

[The_Doctor]

Original plan was Walker 2x, Portman 1x. It was a 1920s era scenario. Trump winning while losing the popular vote as much as he did made me shift it from 2029 to 2025.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Beautiful, really loved every word of it and was almost in tears at various points. Actually gave me some real hope for the future. Hope something like it comes true.

As a final thought, the cycle of history that you project going into the 2030s and 2040s almost does seem to continue the parallels between the post WWII era with the US becoming increasingly prosperous and education being more affordable to a broader slice of the population. Also ties into the Strauss and Howe generational theory with Millennials as a hero generation and Boomers as a Prophet generation. Maybe in the 2040s you'll see something mirroring the 60s counter-culture emerge.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

This was so good. Echoing the above post, it really gives me hope as well. Hope to see another OP by TD some time soon

[The_Doctor]

Beautiful, really loved every word of it and was almost in tears at various points. Actually gave me some real hope for the future. Hope something like it comes true.

As a final thought, the cycle of history that you project going into the 2030s and 2040s almost does seem to continue the parallels between the post WWII era with the US becoming increasingly prosperous and education being more affordable to a broader slice of the population. Also ties into the Strauss and Howe generational theory with Millennials as a hero generation and Boomers as a Prophet generation. Maybe in the 2040s you'll see something mirroring the 60s counter-culture emerge.

Interestingly the FDR and Reagan eras line up well. Almost too well. The 1990s were a mirror opposite image of the 1950s, down to the presidents losing Congress in their first term. Bush and JFK/LBJ line up fairly well with Vietnam/Iraq. If you believe Nixon was a foreshadowing president, Obama would be a good stand in. Now we're in the Ford / Carter phase apparently.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Definitely one of the better timelines in the last year. Excellent job!

[Blackacre]

Beautiful, really loved every word of it and was almost in tears at various points. Actually gave me some real hope for the future. Hope something like it comes true.

As a final thought, the cycle of history that you project going into the 2030s and 2040s almost does seem to continue the parallels between the post WWII era with the US becoming increasingly prosperous and education being more affordable to a broader slice of the population. Also ties into the Strauss and Howe generational theory with Millennials as a hero generation and Boomers as a Prophet generation. Maybe in the 2040s you'll see something mirroring the 60s counter-culture emerge.

Interestingly the FDR and Reagan eras line up well. Almost too well. The 1990s were a mirror opposite image of the 1950s, down to the presidents losing Congress in their first term. Bush and JFK/LBJ line up fairly well with Vietnam/Iraq. If you believe Nixon was a foreshadowing president, Obama would be a good stand in. Now we're in the Ford / Carter phase apparently.

Seems like the difference here is how each coalition adds to the standard 40 year model. FDR's coalition got 2 terms added onto the beginning, spending more time in the realignment phase, while Reagan's coalition spent 4 more years in the disjunction/carter phase, almost turning it into a second Bush 43 era before everything came crashing down.

[Gass3268]

Great work, best timeline I've read in a long time!

Couple questions:

1) Who was in Cordray first cabinet?
2) With massive majorities, did the Democrats finally admit DC and Puerto Rico as states?
3) Did we eventually get to Mars as planned in the 2030's?

[The_Doctor]

Great work, best timeline I've read in a long time!

Couple questions:

1) Who was in Cordray first cabinet?
2) With massive majorities, did the Democrats finally admit DC and Puerto Rico as states?
3) Did we eventually get to Mars as planned in the 2030's?

1) I have no clue. It's really hard to tell you because in ten years, there's probably a roster of new Democratic office holders and civil servants who have made their mark during the Trump - Pence years. So I couldn't tell you with any reasonable faith in my prediction.

2) Aha! I did think about this. DC was admitted as a state, yes, in around 2029. Puerto Rico I choose to let the reader decide this because Puerto Rico hasn't been clear if they want to join the Union or not. The Senate Democrats benefited from this the most. The GOP objected but y'know, the GOP is a rump party in the late 2020s.

3.) Yes. We did get to Mars. The story of the next majority - not that I plan to write it - is that we became a vastly more educated, space faring civilization oriented around things like space exploration, technology advancements, and things that weren't easily automated. By 2040, civic society has been so radically changed that a lot of menial jobs are phased out. We're walking around in driverless busses and trains and cars and the emphasis on the labor market is intellectual skills. This is a huge global problem because we have 11 billion people and not everyone can be a scientist, doctor, lawyer, whatever and a ton of countries don't have the resources we do to adjust to this brave new world. But that's a story for another time.

[Frodo]

Great work, best timeline I've read in a long time!

Couple questions:

1) Who was in Cordray first cabinet?
2) With massive majorities, did the Democrats finally admit DC and Puerto Rico as states?
3) Did we eventually get to Mars as planned in the 2030's?

1) I have no clue. It's really hard to tell you because in ten years, there's probably a roster of new Democratic office holders and civil servants who have made their mark during the Trump - Pence years. So I couldn't tell you with any reasonable faith in my prediction.

2) Aha! I did think about this. DC was admitted as a state, yes, in around 2029. Puerto Rico I choose to let the reader decide this because Puerto Rico hasn't been clear if they want to join the Union or not. The Senate Democrats benefited from this the most. The GOP objected but y'know, the GOP is a rump party in the late 2020s.

3.) Yes. We did get to Mars. The story of the next majority - not that I plan to write it - is that we became a vastly more educated, space faring civilization oriented around things like space exploration, technology advancements, and things that weren't easily automated. By 2040, civic society has been so radically changed that a lot of menial jobs are phased out. We're walking around in driverless busses and trains and cars and the emphasis on the labor market is intellectual skills. This is a huge global problem because we have 11 billion people and not everyone can be a scientist, doctor, lawyer, whatever and a ton of countries don't have the resources we do to adjust to this brave new world. But that's a story for another time.

How about foreign policy?  I know that during Trump/Pence years, North Korea imploded and China is in a state of turmoil.  Did anything come of that?  How about Russia -is Putin still in power?  How much damage did the previous administration do to our standing as the world's lone superpower by the time Richard Cordray was inaugurated?  Did he heal the damage and then some? 

Just paint us a picture of the world beyond our borders and shores. 

[The_Doctor]

I'll come up with an answer tomorrow.

Anyone want me to flesh out the lead up to the debt crisis in a brief post alongside the foreign policy? That's probably the one thing I wish I covered more.

[Devout Centrist]

TD, it looks like you've been right the whole time, just off by 3 or 4 years.

[The_Doctor]

TD, it looks like you've been right the whole time, just off by 3 or 4 years.

Whaddya mean? Timing wise the 3-4 years is a big error.

[Devout Centrist]

TD, it looks like you've been right the whole time, just off by 3 or 4 years.

Whaddya mean? Timing wise the 3-4 years is a big error.

Trump might not survive the year

[Blackacre]

I'll come up with an answer tomorrow.

Anyone want me to flesh out the lead up to the debt crisis in a brief post alongside the foreign policy? That's probably the one thing I wish I covered more.

Yes please

[The_Doctor]

Foreign Policy

How about foreign policy?  I know that during Trump/Pence years, North Korea imploded and China is in a state of turmoil.  Did anything come of that?  How about Russia -is Putin still in power?  How much damage did the previous administration do to our standing as the world's lone superpower by the time Richard Cordray was inaugurated?  Did he heal the damage and then some?  

OK, let’s try to cover this.  I am probably, wildly, wildly wrong on the foreign policy aspect. All credit goes to noted geopolitical strategist George Friedman and his books, which I cribbed all this from.

To answer your question, North Korea imploded, yes, and it is still recovering from the 80-100 year programming / brainwashing that has been ongoing. Kim Jong Un was couped, and removed from power. China and a consortium of East Asian nations, including South Korea, stepped into the vacuum and the Koreas are moving towards reunification. The Pence Administration blessed this effort and it goes on during the Cordray Administration. Think of East-West Germany as the model; after the long Cold War, they’re slowly moving towards becoming one Korea. Obviously, South Korea is the more powerful dominant half (much as West Germany was) and there’s going to be some considerable catch up. Japan gains considerable clout from North Korea’s implosion by the way and the resulting efforts to reunify the Koreas.

Putin retired in 2022, after serving a final term as President of Russia. He’s been on the world stage for 22 years and is 70 years old. I realize, Trump began his Presidency at 70 but Putin’s been around a long time. Additionally, Russia is seeing Pence and the hawkish Republicans regain power in Washington and their $2-ish trillion GDP is barely able to compete with the $18 trillion GDP US economy. The Russians used cyberwarfare to even the odds, but it was a matter of time before the United States took up the belief that their interests lay in containing Russia. They hoped Trump would be able to give Russia some breathing space, and that was Trump’s intention but Pence happened, and Pence is far less friendly. Also, a sizable bloc of Congressional Republicans and the Democrats are far more anti-Russia, meaning there’s not much in the way of international support for Russia. Trump envisioned himself in the position of Franklin Roosevelt trying to help Britain when public opinion wasn’t that popular, but Trump is no FDR and this isn’t World War II.

So, Russia is kind of treading water, and as a $2 trillion GDP, with a hostile $18 trillion United States aggressively pushing against it, Russia has dominated the geopolitical fears of the United States, but the reality is that Russia is never a true global player. They’re constantly trying to fight above their weight but it isn’t really a fair contest. So by the time Cordray comes in, they’re still nominally a Great Power but they’re increasingly looking weak, like 1980. Cordray continues a harshly anti-Russia policy and slowly gets them to enact reforms and to back away from areas like Syria, and the Ukraine. Japan, again, big beneficiary, in Asia.

China, for its part, has fallen into disrepair and other nations in Asia and the United States are vying to make China a puppet nation. Japan is the big winner, being right next to China, and as the third largest world economy. India isn’t as able as Japan, given it has a ton of problems with corruption, government efficiency, and ineffective capitalistic system and so on and so on. So China becomes a satellite of Japan, in some ways, and is highly weakened.

The Trump-Pence people ultimately didn’t do that much damage. Mostly because their M.O. was to simply withdraw from everywhere else. This gives room to Turkey in the Middle East to start making power plays and Instanbul begins to become an important player, much to Israel’s alarm. Erdogan’s dream of making Turkey a regional power instead of a backwater is slowly being realized, partially because the United States was so hands off and Russia doesn’t have the capability to project force and power into the region as much as they need to. So, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are in a threeway struggle to dominate the region. The Arabic world is going through quite a bit of upheaval; how that ends, I don’t know.

Israel remains our ally and Bibi is gone, having been indicted in 2017. There’s not much to say about Israel, we’re still friends, we still guarantee Israel’s security, and the Arabic world is not interested, per se, in blowing up Israel and inviting the anger of the United States.

Europe is muddling through. There’s not much good to say here.  The European identity is being battered by immigration from other areas of the world (cf. the former colonies) and the fact the birth rates of Europeans are plummeting. So, Europe is going through this identity crisis and the European Union is still lumbering, a zombie organization of sorts, that is increasingly ineffectual. It’ll take another generation (and probably World War III) for Europe to get its act together. The slow moving crisis in Europe is of worry to Washington, but there’s not much anyone can do but let it all play out.

The Cordray Administration managed to deal with Russia, was a little more successful in Iran, and presaged the first phase of the 21st century Pax Americana, with reasserting American global dominance and hegemony. They manage to close the deals with Russia and China, and sideline them on a permanent basis.

Now, the REALLY big picture.

There’s peace for a while, but as Japan, Turkey, and other rivals rise, by 2045, there’s a inching towards a global conflict revolving around illiberal regimes versus liberal western democracy, and really, how the international world order should be ordered and who should be in charge and what norms should prevail. The post-world War II era is forever shattered and the interregnum between 2001 (or 2008?) and the third World War is the period remembered as the slow walking towards to resolving these fundamental questions.

The short answer, most likely, the world comes to the bitter realization that a global identity has to begin to replace our nationalist identities but this process is wrenching, painful, and will take decades. You’re asking a world that has ordered itself by national identities for 6,000 years to try to turn its axis towards a global identity and that process will probably consume the rest of our lives. A ton of blood, diplomacy, and money and negotiations will all be spent in turning the global axis towards an entirely new identity, and this is sort of a 22nd century issue, but the 21st century will be consumed in the kind of transactional politics and forging of a new global identity. The 20th century was all about forging international institutions so we all could get along; now the 21st century will be about forging that international identity to go with these institutions so that we can become a space faring civilization capable of using our considerable resources to really go to the stars and beyond. Remember, the 1st half of the 20th century was all about grappling with creating international institutions to stop the constant warfare and to guarantee a global peace. It took us from 1870 to 1945 to even reach that place, and this only goes down because Europe is wrecked, beyond repair twice. And we spend 1945-2008 in this comparative sense of peace because again, the hard won battles of 1870-1945 lock in a system. Since 2001 or 2008, or even 1991, that system has slowly fallen apart and now we need to forge not only a new system but a new identity as not nationally-originated but as citizens of a global order to go with it.  

Let me circle back to President Cordray. Cordray recognizes some of this, dimly, and realizes that he can only contribute, not necessarily complete the whole process (which will take many, many presidents and leaders and probably a hundred years - if we’re lucky). So the Cordray Administration encourages international institutions to be built, tries to help the European Union reform, etc. But as far as this great story of the 21st century goes, they’re a contributing Administration, not THE White House who will cement this new reality. (That’s probably, what? 2090, 2100)

But this is all getting very much beyond what you and I will ever be alive to see. So we’ll stop there. That timeline is beyond my capabilities, so. ..

Debt Lead Up

I regret not planning this earlier, so a little makeup here. In 2018, Medicare/Medicaid costs begin to rise, pushing more strain on the federal budget and forcing President Trump and Pence to acknowledge higher deficits driven by entitlements. Because the 2017 RyanCare plan failed, they can only tweak around the corners and to try to cut spending to make up for the increasingly large cost of Medicare and Medicaid as the Baby Boomer generation rises. This angers Congressional conservatives, and is kind of a big reason they’re so adamant about drawing a line in 2021, when it comes to bailing out the states. They don’t want to suffer in silence as the White House yet again pushes off entitlements and spending fights for political points on the board.

The “principled spending” conservatives have been long shunted to the side in the GOP coalition. They’ve been trotted out when the Party was on the outs and then sidelined when they're back in power. This has been going on since Reagan and they have had it by 2021. President Pence is pretty good, but when the debt fight explodes, they decide once and for all to draw a line in the sand.

There’s another reason spending cuts aren’t coming. Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security have been so tied into the safety net and civic structure of American life that the Republicans, as part of the bargain of 1980, when they became the majority party, agreed to not touch them. Reagan learned this to his dismay in 1976 when he was lambasted for calling Social Security a Ponzi scheme. Bush was burned in 2005 for Social Security reforms. These benefits help the very blue collar white voters that enable the GOP majority to remain in power. So, given this iron rule of the era - “Major Safety Nets Shalt Not Be Touched” - the Republicans are reduced to tweaking around the corner and cutting resources that are used by Democratic coalition groups.

And so, when this all explodes, the ensuing uproar is intense and the Republicans catch themselves finally facing all the things they ignored since Reagan, coming to a head.

And a fun article that could be called 'The Making of a President 2024.'

[brucejoel99]

Nice write-up, very enjoyable read...

Putin retired in 2022, after serving a final term as President of Russia.

Just a quick ?: Russia has a 6-year presidential term & the next election is scheduled for 2018... did he leave office 2 years early or is it supposed to be 2024 lol??

[The_Doctor]

Just a quick ?: Russia has a 6-year presidential term & the next election is scheduled for 2018... did he leave office 2 years early or is it supposed to be 2024 lol??

Yes, I mean 2024, sorry.

This was a fantastic read! Quick question, what would the map look like with a large Republican electoral victory in 2036?

Would they win New York, Illinois, or Washington?

I am not really sure, imagine something like maybe Dewey 1948 but a lot more Midwestern states in the GOP column and the Interior West as GOP as well as the upper Pacific Coast.

[Blackacre]

I could see a map like this being the norm in the 2036-2048 time period

http://www.270towin.com/maps/K2yPZ

[CapoteMonster]

TD what would the voter demographics by age be like in 2024?