Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[Gass3268]

Maps?

[Mike Thick]

Maps?

Coming in a comprehensive results post, along with more all-encompassing State Legislative results.

Ueutyi, Kander chose not to seek a rematch with Blunt, but we will be seeing him again soon.

[Mike Thick]

United States Elections, 2022

Senate:

Democrats: +8, 54 seats
Republicans: -8, 46 seats


PA:
Joe Torsella (D): 3,270,778 53.51%
Pat Toomey (R): 2,646,084 43.29%
Others (I): 195,599 3.20%
Margin: 10.22%

OH:
Yvette Simpson (D): 2,613,128 48.382%
Rob Portman (R): 2,613,021 48.380%
Others (I): 96,926 3.24%
Margin: .002%

WI:
Chris Larson (D): 1,599,585 53.47%
Robin Vos (R): 1,380,304 44.57%
Others (I): 58,634 1.96%
Margin: 8.90%

IA:
Jeff Danielson (D): 816,724 50.96%
Rod Blum (R): 739,475 46.14%
Other (I): 46,478 2.90%
Margin: 4.82%

AZ:
Ruben Gallego (D): 1,289,359 50.98%
Jeff DeWit (R): 1,127,746 44.59%
Other (I): 112,294 4.44%
Margin: 6.39%

NC:
Josh Stein (D): 2,549,776 52.77%
Dan Forest (R): 2,219,760 45.94%
Other (I): 62,331 1.29%
Margin: 6.83%

GA:
Stacey Evans (D): 2,083,672 51.65%
Austin Scott (R): 1,926,741 47.76%
Other: 23,802 0.59%
Margin: 3.89%

FL:
Darren Soto (D): 4,853,397 49.93%
Marco Rubio (R): 4,781,466 49.19%
Other: 71,931 0.74%
Margin: 0.84%

Gubernatorials:

Democrats: +4, 33 Governorships
Republicans: -4, 16 Governorships
Independents: --, 1 Governorship

NH:
Stefany Shaheen (D): 392,192 53.18%
Chris Sununu (R): 321,178 43.44%
Others (I): 24,990 3.38%
Margin: 9.74%

AZ:
Kyrsten Sinema (D): 1,328,869 52.51%
Michele Reagan (R): 1,152,732 45.55%
Others (I): 49,095 1.94%
Margin: 6.94%

TX:
Rafael Anchia (D): 4,628,551 49.62%
Van Taylor (R): 4,220,918 45.25%
Others (I): 478,526 5.13%
Margin: 4.37%

GA:
Jason Carter (D): 2,010,000 52.08%
Casey Cagle (R): 1,865,323 46.26%
Others (I): 66,935 1.66%
Margin: 5.82%

FL:
Gwen Graham (D): 5,221,939 53.80%
Adam Putnam (R): 4,300,820 44.31%
Others (I): 183,466 1.89%
Margin: 9.49%

KS:
Paul Davis (D): 628,634 54.80%
Kris Kobach (R): 469,181 40.90%
Others (I): 49,327 4.30%
Margin: 13.90%

WI:
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 1,644,011 54.07%
Mike Gallagher (R): 1,330,533 43.76%
Others (I): 65,979 2.17%
Margin: 10.31%

PA:
Brendan Boyle (D): 3,321,995 54.35%
Scott Perry (R): 2,705,883 44.27%
Others (I): 84,349 1.38%
Margin: 10.08%

House:
Democrats: +48, 241 seats
Republicans: -48, 194 seats

State Legislatures:

60% is two chambers flipped, 30% is one chamber flipped. Let me know if I made errors on any of this, of course!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

texas turns atlas red! Great honer!

[Pericles]

8 Democrat Senate gains (Blunt survives though)-nice! What's the Senate seat count?

[Blackacre]

8 Democrat Senate gains (Blunt survives though)-nice! What's the Senate seat count?

54-46 Dems. Dems had 46 seats after the 2020 elections.

Those maps though... they're beautiful!!!

If the prologue is any indication, that also means Dems will pick up 4 seats in 20204

[The_Doctor]

Thanks to Ted B, God of the West for his wonderful work on the midterms

[The_Doctor]

Notes: We are doing two articles a day. I've written everything but the last two articles and the Election Night 2024 shindig. This timeline will be finished probably next week (it began in November 2014).

Democrats Roar into Capitol Hill in 2023 and take levers of power

(January 2023) -- Washington. D.C. As January 2023 dawned, Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) gave way to Speaker Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) ceded the majority leadership to Senate Majority Leader Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) Democrats ended Election Night with 54 Senate Democrats and 241 House Democrats, with the GOP at 46 and 194 seats. Among the state, 32 states had Democratic governors with only 17 GOP governors. The GOP looked very much like a party that was clinging onto the White House but otherwise shut out of the government.

The new Republican House and Senate Minority Leaders were Steve Scalise (R-La.) and John Cornyn (R-Tex.) Both McConnell and Ryan announced that they were leaving the GOP leadership and Ryan had in fact announced a retirement from Congress altogether in 2024. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) had been knocked off in the 2022 wave.  Embattled Congressional Republicans prepared for life anew in the minority - in the House’s case, it hadn’t been since 2010 and the Senate, 2014. In the new majority, the Democrats had passed over Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.) for Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). The first female Senate Majority Leader, Gillibrand was seen as a rising star who now led the Senate Democrats and the U.S. Senate.

The average House Democrat won from three types of districts. (1) The heavily Clinton - Brown districts, which numbered 205 in 2016 (Democrats won most of them) (2) The light Trump districts that were under 50% - another handful of districts (numbering 23-28 and Democrats won a bloc of this). (3) A handful of working class districts that voted for Trump and Pence that swung heavily to the Democrats in the midst of the crisis. (The Democrats won a bloc of these districts as well). 

In the Senate, Democrats had picked up five Midwestern seats, two Southern seats, and a Sunbelt seat to sit at 54 seats, compared to 46 for the Senate GOP. The 2024 map, of course, was the looming 2018 map that had seen the GOP net 4 extra seats.

Consequently, unlike the 2007 Democratic majority, which came from many Bush 43 friendly areas that had gone clearly Republican in 2004, this new Democratic majority was more friendly and had fewer conservative voters to answer for. Time would tell how they would govern.

President Pence welcomed the new Congress and urged “cooperation” and “compromise,” but increasingly was seen as an ineffective leader with a dubious 2024 future.

[KingSweden]

Great stuff!

[The_Doctor]

Notes: We’re skipping ahead 12 months, then skipping back to cover the rest of the political events during 2023. We’re squaring away the Congressional battles.
Tone: Time Magazine Piece in December 2022

Democratic Congress and President Pence Lock Horns

December 2023 -- (Washington, D.C.) What had begun as a collegial attempt to work on a bipartisan basis quickly devolved into mudslinging and posturing, between the President and the newly sworn Democratic Congress. The Democratic majority wanted to posit themselves as the responsible party that would respond to the crisis and cast Pence as the failed President that they thought he was. Meanwhile, the White House wanted to look like it was actually doing something about the crisis but they were continually being thwarted by Congress. This set up a dual image of two branches picking out very different versions of reality. The President made himself out to be the dealmaker in chief, who would listen to Congress and govern on a bipartisan basis. Congress cast itself as sending Pence necessary bills that he should sign to create real relief for the public. As a consequence, neither side got anything done.

The session began collegially enough, as the Democrats sent the President a series of bills that the Republican majority hadn’t. They sent a revised bailout package, which Pence signed with some relief. The midterms had decisively decided who would win that argument and the President had little appetite for holding up a relief package that could continue to dog the Republicans in 2024. A number of Trump - era initiatives, such as the Muslim ban, was modified by Congressional statute. Again, the President signed it into law, eager to not repeat the stormy Trump years.

From there, however, things devolved. Congress sent the President a student loan initiative that would have helped the Federal Government assume some of the debt in order to help struggling students who were suffering in the middle of the crisis. The President vetoed. Congress tried to override, but didn’t succeed. Next, the Congress sent the President some small bore healthcare initiatives rolling back the worst of the Republican reforms to the Affordable Care Act. No dice, again. The President vetoed, and a war of words erupted. Republicans, aware of the weak hand they were playing, tried to cast themselves as the responsible guardian of the federal purse and argued they were open to reforms but not the ones the Democrats wanted. The Democrats cast the President and the Republican Party as “heartless” and wedded to the mega-rich.

All of the posturing was a setup for 2024. Everyone, but the President, that is. The crisis had winded the President and he was privately mulling not running for another term. He did not want to end his career facing a difficult election and being cast as the Herbert C. Hoover or Jimmy Carter of his generation and times.

Then Senator Rafael E. “Ted” Cruz started preparing for a run. And that changed everything.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pass the popcorn!

[Pericles]

Pence is Gerald Ford and Cruz is Reagan (without the being President part)?

[The_Doctor]

Pence is Gerald Ford and Cruz is Reagan (without the being President part)?

Ish. If Ford was an elected President in his own right. And Pence is plenty conservative, it's just conservatives are outraged by his attempt to broker a compromise and a middle road during the debt crisis. Ergo, Cruz. Cruz is well reputed to being ambitious and he'd be still the Senator from Texas and see an opening for himself in 2024 as the dark horse nominee or the runner up for 2028. Either way, win-win. (Or so he thinks).

[The_Doctor]

Notes: Election Night 2024 is tentatively scheduled for Friday, at 7:00 PM to 10:00 PM EST. You'll get a steady stream of 2 articles per day and then we'll have the election night, then the inauguration of the new President over the weekend.

The Tax Cut of 2022 is a Failure

May 2023 -- (Washington, D.C.). President Pence had initiated a sizable tax cut to respond to the crisis of 2022, in a bid to stimulate the flagging economy. However, members of both sides of the aisle acknowledged that a year later, it was a failure. The tax cut had shrunk several brackets, and flattened out the tax rate. The top rate was at 30% and it moved millions of Americans off the income tax rolls entirely. The effort was designed to enact tax reform that built upon the 2017 efforts and to stimulate a recovery. But it had failed. Real GDP growth had barely budged upwards in 2022, going up only .5% and was going up at an anemic pace. Unemployment was at at 6.4% in the aftermath of the crisis.

The problem, as economists pointed out, was that nobody was getting a job during the recession that gripped the nation. The States had cut to the bone and Washington, stalemated as it was, wasn’t ready to come to the rescue with a stimulus package, as it had in 2008 and 2009. The Republicans were deeply suspicious of any bailout package. The Democrats wanted a stimulus package, but didn’t even remotely agree with the President on what to pass. So, on a party line vote, a tax cut was passed and enacted in order to stimulate the recovery. The tax cuts echoed what Hoover did in the worst of the crisis; enact more of the GOP’s orthodoxy to cure the crisis (in his case, Smoot-Hawley). Failing majorities tended to use their greatest hits to try to save the country from whatever was ailing it. And so, President Pence’s tax cut was the Reagan GOP’s version of it.

The failure of the tax cut hit at the soft underbelly of the Republican Party. That being that the white working class that the Republicans needed for their electoral majorities needed, in substantial numbers, an economy with jobs and an effective stream of government revenue to their pockets to survive - as doctors, lawyers, firefighters, police officers, contractors, and countless other professions. With the states cutting to the bones, they had no money and were the hardest hit of the downturn. Only Social Security remained untouched as the only revenue stream going to the working class and they helped mainly the elderly and the poor, not the vast bulk of working class Americans. Republicans in Washington had cut deeply into the federal budget, also compounding the damage.  

The economic slump was deep and pervasive, and while not on the order of the Great Depression, it was getting on the order of the Ford - Carter years that had seen the incumbent party thrown out.

[Oppo]

I've finally got around to reading this, and it's amazing!

[The_Doctor]

The Big Three Seeking the Democratic Presidential Nomination

July 2023 -- Washington, D.C. As Democratic Party activists gathered across the country to consider their options, they had a field of three leading clear candidates who would be seeking the presidency.

The first, Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-N.Y), was a failed primary candidate for the Presidency in 2022 and who had sought (and won) a fourth full term as New York Governor. Governor Cuomo brought to the table the pragmatic liberal streak that had enabled him to win four term in New York. Embittered and yet emboldened by his 2020 loss, he believed he was a competitive candidate who would easily win the White House, fulfilling his father’s final mission of becoming President of the United States. Cuomo had positioned himself starting in 2016 and was not about to let a 2020 loss stop him.

Sen. Cory Anthony Booker (D-N.J) was an ambitious African American Senator from New Jersey who was a (to put it kindly) a vocal and hard to miss figure on the camera. A liberal from New Jersey in his own right, he campaigned in the same political space as Governor Cuomo. Booker was seen as strong on civil rights and attractive to the African American bloc in the Democratic Party and urban voters, as a former Mayor.

The last was the two term Governor Richard Cordray (D-Ohio), the former Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau who had become Ohio Governor. Eking out a 51-48% margin, he had won re-election by 57-41%. Despite battling a Republican legislature, the governor had operated as a populist liberal with a long track record of populist liberalism.

The Democratic Party was now in a period of transition, after facing two electoral losses and having just recaptured Congress. Liberal activists were deeply wary of the challenge of electing a President and then facing Republican obstruction who would try to convert their resistance to winning the midterms. The activists had a tall order: a President who would not only win but who would be able to keep Congress during his Presidency and pass a real progressive agenda.

A variety of other Democrats, eyeing the White House in 2024, would also run. But these would be the Big Three.

[Blackacre]

Ooh, I wonder who wins! (maybe having another of the 2018 Dem gov pickups take the plunge would have been better for creating suspense, but from the Big Three it's pretty clear you don't want anyone who's been paying attention to be in doubt over the nominee)

edit: Nevermind, it's not any of the big three. Cordray is a red herring; the prologue specifically states that the 47th President was a state legislator when Trump was elected in 2016. The named individuals who best match the prologue are Iowa's Tyler Olson and Wisconsin's Kathleen Vinehout. But since that post describes potus47 with he/him pronouns, the closest match is Olson.

edit2: my mistake, the prologue states that he was a lowly state officer when Trump was elected, which probably means it isn't Olson. But that also roles out Cordray. Alexi Giannoulias was Illinois treasurer... but was long gone by Trump's election, probably ruling him out too. Brian Fosh is not young but he was MD AG when Trump was elected. Since you never told us who won the governorships of NM, NV, or VA, they're probably not important. Which means that either state officer could mean state legislator or FORMER officer, implying Olson and Giannoulias respectively, or you fibbed/changed your mind, meaning it really is Cordray.

BTW, what happens on the Supreme Court? Does Pence get any justices aside from the one Trump replaced Scalia with?

[Devout Centrist]

Interesting. Ben Sasse, the Last Best Lieutenant of the Conservative Idiot Brigade has targetted Cordray. Props to you TD for doing an awesome job so far!

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.usatoday.com/story/97607116/?client=safari

[The_Doctor]

Actually, the prologue is mistaken in two areas because when I first wrote it. Minor tweaks, actually. But at this point, I don't want to give away the 47th President's name. So don't assume it's not one of these big Three.  

Yeah, I sometimes need to plan better. And sometimes, I'm just evil in trying to leave my mistakes to keep you guessing.

(Sorry, for real. I have had 95% of the timeline planned out since November, but I've had to tweak it).

[The_Doctor]

Tone: Time Magazine Piece.

President Pence Faces Primary Challenge from Senator Cruz

August 2023 -- (Austin, Texas) Senator Ted Cruz, the runner up in 2016, is eyeing a bid for the Presidency against the incumbent Republican, Michael R. Pence. For that matter, the embattled President weighed a bid for a second term before deciding to run. But weakened by the 2021-2022 crisis, President Pence is looking like a President who could face a serious challenge from the Right. Enter the dynamic young Senator from Texas, Edward Rafael Cruz. At age 54, compared to the 65 year old Mike Pence, the senator saw an opening to challenge the Republican incumbent.

Senator Cruz, for months, has been eyeing the challenge to Pence, in the hopes of ousting him and taking on the Democratic candidate to reprise the 2016 campaign once more - or being a runner up to win the nomination in 2028. Aides to the Texas Senator said he would be focusing on a Presidential campaign to define “conservatism for the next generation.” Having won a 2018 midterm 55-43%, Senator Cruz found himself positioned as the guardian of the conservative movement, after Donald Trump. For months, he had been visiting Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, testing liners that challenged Pence’s “weak spine” and the “great sellout of 2022.”

Meanwhile, according to White House aides, President Pence was reluctantly pushed into the 2024 Presidential race. With the toughest race of his political life ahead of him, the President agreed to run again for the sake of maintaining the Republican coalition and to try to pull off one last win. Gone was the youthful exuberance that had marked the happy warrior; the last three years had vastly aged the President. The aging President saw the challenge from Cruz as a dangerous sign for the Right and a possible ditch for the conservative movement were Cruz to actually win the nomination. Still, a tough election campaign loomed, with the President having a 29% approval rating and just 61% approval among Republicans.

The President announced for re-election in August 2023, and Senator Ted Cruz quickly followed up in September 2023. The White House prepared for a brutal primary struggle, casting itself as the guardian of responsible Republican values. Senator Cruz, for his part, viewed himself as the Great Conservative Defender of the Faith.

Time would tell who would win out the hearts of the GOP electorate.

[Blackacre]

Actually, the prologue is mistaken in two areas because when I first wrote it. Minor tweaks, actually. But at this point, I don't want to give away the 47th President's name. So don't assume it's not one of these big Three.  

Yeah, I sometimes need to plan better. And sometimes, I'm just evil in trying to leave my mistakes to keep you guessing.

(Sorry, for real. I have had 95% of the timeline planned out since November, but I've had to tweak it).

Well I'm happy to be kept guessing, this is kind of fun And point taken, but I'm not going to eliminate the possibility that it isn't in the Big Three either

[The_Doctor]

As for justices, either Ginsberg retired as did Thomas. I am not going to get into the Supreme Court too much because I have a standing belief that the Supreme Court is a majoritarian institution; e.g, when the country shifts left, the Justices will do the same thing appropriately. But yes, it's a very conservative Court right now.

It's a 6-3 conservative Court.

01. John G. Roberts (chief justice) (Conservative)
02. Diane Sykes (Associate Justice) (Conservative) (Replacing Scalia)
03. Stephen Breyer (Associate Justice) (Liberal)
04. Samuel Alito (Associate Justice) (Conservative)
05. Elena Kagan (Liberal)
06. Sonia Sotomayor (Liberal)
07. Neil Gorsuch (Conservative) (Replacing Kennedy)
08. Thomas Hardiman (Conservative) (Replacing Thomas)
09. William Pryor (Conservative) (Replacing Ginsburg)

[The_Doctor]

Last PSA. (Read the Cruz v. Pence article above).

If you want ANY topics written about, post here or PM me. I'll try to squeeze it in. You have until Thursday night, because Friday night is election night. 

[The_Doctor]

Interesting. Ben Sasse, the Last Best Lieutenant of the Conservative Idiot Brigade has targetted Cordray. Props to you TD for doing an awesome job so far!

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.usatoday.com/story/97607116/?client=safari

This is why I think he runs for Ohio Governor. .

[brucejoel99]

Last PSA. (Read the Cruz v. Pence article above).

If you want ANY topics written about, post here or PM me. I'll try to squeeze it in. You have until Thursday night, because Friday night is election night.  

Just curious, but what's going on w/ our former Presidents? Are Carter/Bush 41 approaching 100 or have grim events occurred? What're Clinton (I'm curious about *both* Clintons actually), Bush 43, & Obama up to as well? And as for Trump, I just presume he's been staying out of the spotlight post-resignation (the same as what he was doing as of Inauguration 2021)?

EDIT: If possible, Veeps as well, please. Mondale, Quayle, Gore, Cheney, Biden? What's up w/ Uncle Joe & the gang (minus Bush 41 & Pence, of course, b/c Bush 41 was already counted as a President & Pence is busy w/ being the incumbent President & all)??