Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[The_Doctor]

No clue on the realigning Presidency at this point since it would need to be someone middle aged, from a similar region as Obama (IL), a decently large state, and has had lost at least once. Preferably a Governor or Senator.

I don't think we'd have answers until 2023 and the 2024 Democratic field takes shape.

The assumption is that the GOP holds onto the White House in 2020. (Which Moody's Analytics Forecast did show them holding, by a decent margin).

I think the impeachment at this point forecloses the GOP nomination to Trump but not another Republican who would go on to win.

[ShadowRocket]

No clue on the realigning Presidency at this point since it would need to be someone middle aged, from a similar region as Obama (IL), a decently large state, and has had lost at least once. Preferably a Governor or Senator.

I don't think we'd have answers until 2023 and the 2024 Democratic field takes shape.

The assumption is that the GOP holds onto the White House in 2020. (Which Moody's Analytics Forecast did show them holding, by a decent margin).

I think the impeachment at this point forecloses the GOP nomination to Trump but not another Republican who would go on to win.

That makes sense. Cordray really seemed to check off all the requirements that you mentioned. Out of the current Midwestern Governors and Senators, Sherrod Brown still strikes me as a logical alternative, but its an open question to how much he wants the job considering that he passed on a run this cycle.

Maybe Russ Feingold can finally stage a comeback.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

As far as I can tell, Warren's the realigner. Interesting parallel to Reagan with the switching parties, and of course both of them are quite old.

[Yellowhammer]

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).

I was thinking that Buttigieg could work as an alternative choice as the realigning President as well. Presuming that he loses in the primary this time around, maybe he'll have the experience necessary by 2024 depending on how he spends the next couple of years.

I actually have Mayor Pete in my mind as the confirmation president for some reason or at least close to the characteristics of the confirmation Democratic White House of the 2040s.

I'm not sold he's the realigning President because honestly he's too young and inexperienced to have the job of crafting a decades long new coalition that ushers in a radical period of change. That sort of stuff requires an experienced hand.

(I also believe this is principally why Pence wins the 2020 election)

For the record in related news impeachment of Trump has crossed a critical 50% threshold. I think the odds of Trump taking a deal and resigning is pretty good at this point.

So I think we all should brace for President Michael R. Pence.

Wait are you being serious?

[The_Doctor]

As far as I can tell, Warren's the realigner. Interesting parallel to Reagan with the switching parties, and of course both of them are quite old.

It's not her. She's an academic policy wonk untested to the rigors of leading a national coalition. In fact none of the Democrats really appear to be ready like Roosevelt and Reagan.

[OSR stands with Israel]

As far as I can tell, Warren's the realigner. Interesting parallel to Reagan with the switching parties, and of course both of them are quite old.

It's not her. She's an academic policy wonk untested to the rigors of leading a national coalition. In fact none of the Democrats really appear to be ready like Roosevelt and Reagan.

If it is a Midwesterner do you think Whitmer could be the realigner? That's the only candidate who I think fits your bill(Since I highly doubt Pritzker, Wolf , or Evers could be one). In Parrotguy's TL , Mayor Pete was the realigner although in that TL , Mayor Pete ran and won the Indiana Gubernatorial race in 2020 and then won the presidency in a landslide in 2024 .



As for Reagan, he pretty much was a realigner in state politics as well taking a state that historically has progressive governors and mostly had them for 50 years to mostly having conservative governors for the next 44 years and conservatives having a policy control on the state for the next 32.  While Dems had control of the legislature prop 13, the 2/3 budget rule at the time pretty, line item veto , gave the Dem legislature very little checks against Republican Governors .


The ironic part is that it was a budget crisis under a Republican Governor that realigned CA politics in 2010 as well and mainly the fact that the government remained paralyzed during that crises that caused the realignment as well. In fact their is article after article in 2009 and 2010 calling CA the most ungovernable state in the union .

[ShadowRocket]

As far as I can tell, Warren's the realigner. Interesting parallel to Reagan with the switching parties, and of course both of them are quite old.

It's not her. She's an academic policy wonk untested to the rigors of leading a national coalition. In fact none of the Democrats really appear to be ready like Roosevelt and Reagan.

If it is a Midwesterner do you think Whitmer could be the realigner? That's the only candidate who I think fits your bill(Since I highly doubt Pritzker, Wolf , or Evers could be one). In Parrotguy's TL , Mayor Pete was the realigner although in that TL , Mayor Pete ran and won the Indiana Gubernatorial race in 2020 and then won the presidency in a landslide in 2024 .

I don't think it'll be Whitmer myself only because she's never faced an electoral defeat which seems to be one of the qualities past realigning Presidents all seem to share.

I recall TD saying that realigning and foreshadowing President tend to come from the same region, but I wonder if we could see an exception here and it'll wind up being someone from outside the Midwest assuming Obama was the foreshadowing President.

[Frodo]

Stacey Abrams, perhaps, assuming she wins the Georgia governorship in 2022? 

[The_Doctor]

Sherrod Brown, actually.

He fits all the criteria except 2 losses. He had one (1990). Were he to hit the magic 2, he would have what it's needed. But Jefferson had only 1 (technically, Jefferson is listed as a candidate in 1792, having won Kentucky's electors).

Had Brown run and lost the 2020 Democratic nomination, he would probably be the realigner. He may still be. He would be 70 on January 20, 2025, which would be the same age as Ronald Reagan.

(I'm not sold that any Democrat will win in 2020 because by their profile and what the composition of the Democratic coalition is, I think they come up short.)

(I'm also firmly of the sentiment Pence will emerge the GOP nominee, at a minimum).

[The_Doctor]

Side bar, the fact Millennials and Generation Z will be outvoting Boomers starting in 2022 and beyond will probably be sufficient evidence for a realigning election between 2020 and 2028 to usher in the new Millennial - Generation Z branded politics. Don't forget the 1930s GOP collapsed in large part because of the new wave of immigrant voters that outvoted Protestant and more nativist elements in the 1930s. (There's a great Politico article on this).  Not only that, significant elements of the Trump voter base seems open to voting for a populist Democrat and seems to resist a traditional Republican nominee (cf. Reagan/Bush). I think of all things, it will be the Trump guys who do a volte face and turn on Pence in 2024.

But we're not there, honestly. Here's the reason. The GOP coalition succeeded in turning out in 2018 but fundamentally, people seem angry at Trump NOT the Republican brand. This is distinct from 1976 and 1932, where the entire party was in the toilet. Huge swaths of the country seems prepared to back a Republican, and seems upset more at Trump's antics and behavior than the policies. I think too many Democrats conflate Trump's unpopularity with Republican unpopularity at large.

I see Warren as the foreshadowing Al Smith loser of 2020 who pushes the Democratic Party and the country significantly to the left, while Biden is the final defeat of the Old Democratic Party.

Also, the long 11-13 year economic boom that Obama left behind is probably enough to brand him the foreshadowing White House. Foreshadowing Presidents tend to be successful enough that a realigning President takes their brand and runs with it. (Wilson failed only in foreign policy but he was the first Democrat to win two elections; Nixon was impeached but secured a new GOP coalition. Obama was successful but was succeeded by Trump. ETc).

If the economy doesn't go into recession by April/May I can see Pence eking out a win, and then collapsing 2021-2025.

[The_Doctor]

My impeachment riff - purely to see how wrong/right I am in 2-3 months.

I think first, Trump is now firmly on the path to impeachment/resignation. I think the Bill Taylor testimony was highly detailed and probably has given enough evidence to nail the President on a quid pro quo on the Ukraine matter. The irony, Trump was probably on track to a second term defying BTM before this.

I also think that crucially, the Senate GOP conference will not allow impeachment to get to an actual trial. This isn't 1998 where Clinton was like sitting at 73%. This is more like a confirmed case closer to 1974, where Nixon had large swaths of people against him and his popularity sank. The Senate GOP will not want to be on record saving Trump purely because the revelations will not stop after the trial. There will be ongoing new revelations that wil make their decision look shortsighted and put more vulnerable Republicans in jeopardy. I think this ultimately overrides their fear of the GOP base.

The impeachment vote in the Senate will be remembered as one of the major consequential votes that the Senate Republican conference will cast in 2019-2021. And with the fact this President was elected with just 46%, losing by 2.8 million votes to Hillary Clinton, I think the GOP calculates that this is not a hill they want to die on. I don't think they want to put Republicans like Collins, McSally, and Gardner at risk. Remember, the GOP has more seats up in 2020 than the Democrats. And remember, Trump's popularity is not transitive to purple and blue state Republicans.

Again, as I've said, the question is: "What is the deal cut?" I think that at some point, with the myriad array of investigations into Trump, the big question is how that all goes away and Trump is allowed to become a former president without having to be hounded. As long as he is president, that will never stop (mostly because of his own stupidity). I fully expect McConnell, Pelosi, and Pence to negotiate this one. Remember, the Governor of New York is a Democrat, and so Pelosi has to be involved actively to decide how Trump leaves. Trump needs not only a federal pardon but also the New York Democrats to stand down on investigating him. Ergo, Pelosi's role. I think this deal is cut between the House impeachment and the Senate trial.

I also believe that behind the scenes, there is a growing consensus that Mike Pence has to be the next president. Syria caused a lot of consternation because the intelligence community, the foreign policy community, and everyone saw Trump squandering America's hegemonic power. Trump's erratic behavior is now threatening the geopolitical stance of the United States, a cardinal failure that threatens him far more than his regular domestic foibles.

I also think the Democrats will not nail Pence, for a bunch of reasons. One, were Pence to go down, the Senate GOP will protect Trump at al costs with Pelosi next in line. Two, and this is more important, I think that ultimately, Pelosi makes the decision to look the other way (much as Democrats did in 1986 on Reagan/George H.W. Bush in Iran Contra). I also think that Pelosi will calculate that logically, if the GOP sees her becoming president, they will never cooperate, believing that the Democrats stole the election of 2016 and used their bashing of Trump to take the Presidency.  This is the biggest reason I think that Pence is allowed to become President regardless of anything he did.

Three, I see President Pence as a strong institutional fighter who knows that he has to unite the GOP coalition, put a Trumpian spin on things, and regain the intelligence and national security folks to win in 2020 (and govern as President). I think that he has branded himself as a more stable figure and is intentionally signaling that he would reduce the chaos. This is the third reason I think that Pence is allowed to ascend.

Of course, there is the alternative scenario where the GOP goes balls to the wall and then protects Trump at all costs, and risks an 1860 style situation where everything blows apart. There is that. But I don't think they will risk that.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

[OSR stands with Israel]

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

I hope he is wrong about realignment but not about Trump being impeached . The best way for that to happen in my opinion is for the Democrats to narrowly win in 2020 while they fail to take the senate or if they do , take it with Manchin being the deciding vote.



Then in 2024 the Republicans can come back with Haley or DeSantis . Once they do a good job Gen Z will go to them since more of their memories will be from their presidencies and not Trump’s

[The_Doctor]

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

I would like your Trump perspective, as I've been contemplating that I might be too insular. We can get so into the Trump is going down memes that we often miss that a lot of people aren't as politically connected and their issues (cultural, economic, etc) might outweigh other considerations or they may have different political considerations. 

The Left frequently conflates for example disapproval of Trump's behavior with disapproval of GOP policies, which has not (as far as I can tell) been shown to be true (Republican victories in 2010, 2014, 2016 and 2018 being a repudiation of an attempted repeal of ObamaCare and Trump, not the GOP's normal policies).

But here's something that makes me intrigued. The independent bloc that Republicans need to stay allies with seems to be open to an inquiry and I want to see how they behave over the next month and what they view this. (A lot of them are former Republicans, which is why Trump lost moderates but won independents by 6).

We'll see. :-P

[The_Doctor]

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

I hope he is wrong about realignment but not about Trump being impeached . The best way for that to happen in my opinion is for the Democrats to narrowly win in 2020 while they fail to take the senate or if they do , take it with Manchin being the deciding vote.



Then in 2024 the Republicans can come back with Haley or DeSantis

They're not events in isolation. A Trump impeachment is part of the realignment process. The underlying factors in both are the same. There's a reason the Republican Party is weakening and has been so since 2008. (It's like, the entire logical chain of BTM from 2017 to 2025).

In fact, a Trump impeachment is one of the big blinking signs of an realignment election coming. To wit, the poor Republican performance in Trump's time is representative of the GOP's failure to govern fundamentally. We would have seen a stronger GOP if this wasn't the case.

These are not events in isolation. Everything at this point (to me, at least) points to a Pence takeover, the populist-establishment wings fusing, and the GOP reprising their greatest hits 1980-2016 in a last effort to right the ship, which brings them right into the looming crisis.

In fact, Trump has done a great deal to loosen elements of the GOP from the Party and to make them open to the Democratic Party by validating their anger at Ryan, McConnell, and traditional neoliberal elements in the GOP. Many Trump voters will be part of the 2024 realigning election, I believe.

Everything on the Democratic side is showing me that they're not ready for prime time and that there's still a transitional moment that needs to happen in the DNC (which is why I maintain they lose to Pence in 2020).

Oh, also, the pension crisis and the mounting consumer debt is something that's still in the background.

[OSR stands with Israel]

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

I hope he is wrong about realignment but not about Trump being impeached . The best way for that to happen in my opinion is for the Democrats to narrowly win in 2020 while they fail to take the senate or if they do , take it with Manchin being the deciding vote.



Then in 2024 the Republicans can come back with Haley or DeSantis

They're not events in isolation. A Trump impeachment is part of the realignment process. The underlying factors in both are the same. There's a reason the Republican Party is weakening and has been so since 2008.

In fact, a Trump impeachment is one of the big blinking signs of an realignment election coming.  Nixon's impeachment spelled the end of the Eastern Establishment GOP and the rise of the Reagan GOP.

If you examine the fundamentals of the GOP, the reason for Trump's performance and why the GOP will be weaker later on are one and the same.

True,  but someone like DeSantis or Hogan you could argue is not a Republican from the Reagan/Bush neo-liberal conservative mold and more from the populist conservative mode but unlike Trump is competent . DeSantis's work on the environment so far shows he is willing to break with GOP orthodoxy, so you could say him winning could show that the parties have realigned because he certianly wouldn't have been the nominee in a 1980-2012 GOP  .  For this to happen though the party leadership needs to act now and plan for 2024 and maybe allow Dems to win the Presidency in 2020 so they can rebuild for the long run and start this phase with a strong position than start the phase after everything collapses.

If they dont start now , then 2022 and 2024 will be a repeat of 2006 and 2008 except in 2025 the Democratic Party will be unified behind the progressive wing unlike in 2009 and by the time the GOP gets their act together, much of what conservatives have fought for will be gone.

As history has proves once govemrent programs are implemented, they are almost impossible to remove so anything the Dems get from 2025-2027/2031 will be locked in just like basically everything they got from 1933-1939, 1961-1967 and arguably 2009-2011 has been locked in.



So I think it would be better for the GOP in 2020 to just focus on keeping the Senate and allowing the Presidency to fall to the Democrats even if Mike Pence is the nominee. I dont think either Warren or Sanders really will be able to make long term changes anyway (They both are campaigning more like 64 Goldwater than 80 Reagan) which will make them unpopular and allow a Reinvented GOP around someone like DeSantis and Hogan to rore back in 2024.

[The_Doctor]

With all due respect and no offense intended, I'm not substantively responding to that because that is not remotely rooted in reality, logic, or anything resembling that in either the way party mechanics work or well, actually, anything in American politics.

[Frodo]

Again, as I've said, the question is: "What is the deal cut?" I think that at some point, with the myriad array of investigations into Trump, the big question is how that all goes away and Trump is allowed to become a former president without having to be hounded. As long as he is president, that will never stop (mostly because of his own stupidity). I fully expect McConnell, Pelosi, and Pence to negotiate this one. Remember, the Governor of New York is a Democrat, and so Pelosi has to be involved actively to decide how Trump leaves. Trump needs not only a federal pardon but also the New York Democrats to stand down on investigating him. Ergo, Pelosi's role. I think this deal is cut between the House impeachment and the Senate trial.

If there is a deal for Trump to avoid prosecution, congressional Democrats should push for a hard bargain in which Donald Trump and his family self-exile to any country of their choosing (preferably for them, one that doesn't have an extradition treaty with the United States), and give up their US passports and citizenship upon arrival.    

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Again, as I've said, the question is: "What is the deal cut?" I think that at some point, with the myriad array of investigations into Trump, the big question is how that all goes away and Trump is allowed to become a former president without having to be hounded. As long as he is president, that will never stop (mostly because of his own stupidity). I fully expect McConnell, Pelosi, and Pence to negotiate this one. Remember, the Governor of New York is a Democrat, and so Pelosi has to be involved actively to decide how Trump leaves. Trump needs not only a federal pardon but also the New York Democrats to stand down on investigating him. Ergo, Pelosi's role. I think this deal is cut between the House impeachment and the Senate trial.

If there is a deal for Trump to avoid prosecution, congressional Democrats should push for a hard bargain in which Donald Trump and his family self-exile to any country of their choosing (preferably for them, one that doesn't have an extradition treaty with the United States), and give up their US passports and citizenship upon arrival.    

West Palm Beach and Mar-A-Lago are not foreign countries. None of that is going to happen. Trump will retire, loudly of course, to Mar-A-Lago and will spend his final days golfing and hosting supporters. It'll become the Graceland of the MAGA movement.

This is America, not some Latin American dump. We don't "exile" our leaders. Hell, Richard Nixon was praised as a statesman when he died and people lined up for miles to see his casket.

[The_Doctor]

Trump's a duly elected President of the United States who was cleared of collusion with Russia. The crimes he'd be resigning is asking a foreign power to investigate Joe Biden. This isn't treason as much abuse of power. Not only that he's the choice of 63 million Americans who chose him to represent them and reflected on some level their values.

His deal will be exceedingly generous in the eyes of the Left but perfectly rational fwhen you you realize we don't jail our presidents and grant them basic immunity. The first president we jail would be the first of many, many presidents we jail.

He's not going to go to jail or be exiled to a foreign country. Most likely any deal has him repairing to Trump Tower in New York City and what Sanchez said is correct about Mar-a-Lago becoming the Graceland of the MAGA crowd.

In fact Sanchez is correct in totality about this issue.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Keep in mind, he’s still the POTUS. That happened. Jailing Trump isn’t going to change the fact that he knows every national security secret, all his predecessors dirty laundry, and so forth. He’s got the keys to the file cabinet. If Trump were exiled (lmao really Frodo) it locked up he’d sing like a bird, and I’d listen to everything he said. So will the rest of us who voted for him. He’s a bigger risk behind bars then he is on Palm Beach Islamd.

I suspect that Mar-A-Lago will end up being opened to the public on occasion for everyday admirers like yours truly to be received by him. It’s an ego thing. He’ll be like one of those decrepit old actresses from the Golden Age of Hollywood who invite the public into their dusty mansions to meet them and listen to stories. Ayn Rand did that too after she alienated most of her cult members before she died. Lefties will sneer and call it sad, but it’ll be pretty cool for the actual people. He has a habit of stopping his motorcade to greet supporters when he comes into town (I’m in Boynton, a suburb of WPB) and I know people who have literally been picked up in Secret Service vans to see him just because he saw their group a mile up A1A from Mar-A-Lago. It’s well documented, just google “Trump surprises supporters at Mar-A-Lago.” I’ve seen like three WPTV stories like this.

In the meantime, he has his business endeavors, buxom blondes, and golf outings to keep him busy. He’ll still keynote the RNC in 2024, he’ll still tweet his every inane thought, and will pump out ghost written books on the deep state conspiracy that he exposed or whatever.

Trump is always going to win one way or another. Even if he doesn’t hold on to office, he’s gonna live out his days truly believing he won in the end. And he’ll be right.

[brucejoel99]

Keep in mind, he’s still the POTUS. That happened. Jailing Trump isn’t going to change the fact that he knows every national security secret, all his predecessors dirty laundry, and so forth. He’s got the keys to the file cabinet. If Trump were exiled (lmao really Frodo) it locked up he’d sing like a bird, and I’d listen to everything he said. So will the rest of us who voted for him. He’s a bigger risk behind bars then he is on Palm Beach Islamd.

I suspect that Mar-A-Lago will end up being opened to the public on occasion for everyday admirers like yours truly to be received by him. It’s an ego thing. He’ll be like one of those decrepit old actresses from the Golden Age of Hollywood who invite the public into their dusty mansions to meet them and listen to stories. Ayn Rand did that too after she alienated most of her cult members before she died. Lefties will sneer and call it sad, but it’ll be pretty cool for the actual people. He has a habit of stopping his motorcade to greet supporters when he comes into town (I’m in Boynton, a suburb of WPB) and I know people who have literally been picked up in Secret Service vans to see him just because he saw their group a mile up A1A from Mar-A-Lago. It’s well documented, just google “Trump surprises supporters at Mar-A-Lago.” I’ve seen like three WPTV stories like this.

In the meantime, he has his business endeavors, buxom blondes, and golf outings to keep him busy. He’ll still keynote the RNC in 2024, he’ll still tweet his every inane thought, and will pump out ghost written books on the deep state conspiracy that he exposed or whatever.

Trump is always going to win one way or another. Even if he doesn’t hold on to office, he’s gonna live out his days truly believing he won in the end. And he’ll be right.

I don't care whether or not he believes he won in the end, but to actually say that it's right that he'll have won in the end is laughable, simply by virtue of the humiliation that is being forced out of office.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Keep in mind, he’s still the POTUS. That happened. Jailing Trump isn’t going to change the fact that he knows every national security secret, all his predecessors dirty laundry, and so forth. He’s got the keys to the file cabinet. If Trump were exiled (lmao really Frodo) it locked up he’d sing like a bird, and I’d listen to everything he said. So will the rest of us who voted for him. He’s a bigger risk behind bars then he is on Palm Beach Islamd.

I suspect that Mar-A-Lago will end up being opened to the public on occasion for everyday admirers like yours truly to be received by him. It’s an ego thing. He’ll be like one of those decrepit old actresses from the Golden Age of Hollywood who invite the public into their dusty mansions to meet them and listen to stories. Ayn Rand did that too after she alienated most of her cult members before she died. Lefties will sneer and call it sad, but it’ll be pretty cool for the actual people. He has a habit of stopping his motorcade to greet supporters when he comes into town (I’m in Boynton, a suburb of WPB) and I know people who have literally been picked up in Secret Service vans to see him just because he saw their group a mile up A1A from Mar-A-Lago. It’s well documented, just google “Trump surprises supporters at Mar-A-Lago.” I’ve seen like three WPTV stories like this.

In the meantime, he has his business endeavors, buxom blondes, and golf outings to keep him busy. He’ll still keynote the RNC in 2024, he’ll still tweet his every inane thought, and will pump out ghost written books on the deep state conspiracy that he exposed or whatever.

Trump is always going to win one way or another. Even if he doesn’t hold on to office, he’s gonna live out his days truly believing he won in the end. And he’ll be right.

I don't care whether or not he believes he won in the end, but to actually say that it's right that he'll have won in the end is laughable, simply by virtue of the humiliation that is being forced out of office.

That’s not the point I was making, though. My point is that he’s going to be living freely and more luxuriously than all of his critics. He’s gonna get the last laugh.

Consider Nixon. By August 9th, 1974, his support had totally crumbled. He made an impressive comeback considering this. Trump will still have a third of the country supporting him at the bitter end. It’ll be harder to craft the Nixon narrative around him because of him. A more apt analogy is Thatcher.

Actually when Trump dies we’ll probably see a very similar reaction to when Thatcher died now that I think about it.

[Frodo]

One can dream.... 


By the way, what does BTM stand for? 

I think first, Trump is now firmly on the path to impeachment/resignation. I think the Bill Taylor testimony was highly detailed and probably has given enough evidence to nail the President on a quid pro quo on the Ukraine matter. The irony, Trump was probably on track to a second term defying BTM before this.

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

I hope he is wrong about realignment but not about Trump being impeached . The best way for that to happen in my opinion is for the Democrats to narrowly win in 2020 while they fail to take the senate or if they do , take it with Manchin being the deciding vote.

Then in 2024 the Republicans can come back with Haley or DeSantis

They're not events in isolation. A Trump impeachment is part of the realignment process. The underlying factors in both are the same. There's a reason the Republican Party is weakening and has been so since 2008. (It's like, the entire logical chain of BTM from 2017 to 2025).

[GlobeSoc]

god i remember when i was a neeeeerrrrd bernie bro making those unrealistic maps and spamming this thread with them. I would give my past self a verbal wedgie for being so boringly stereotypical lol. Interventionist Internationalist Anti-Anarchist Anti-Authoritarian Flexible Futurist Socially liberal but anti-reparations and anti-prison abolition but pro-state backed immigration* Cybersocialism is where its at

*Where the socialist state, instead of simply opening the borders, uses the fact that its borders are *mostly* open as a geopolitical weapon against its enemies. Such an example of this would be giving all women from the arabian peninsula the ability to either apply for or retroactively get a permanent residency visa to the US and making this fact extremely public on a consistent basis.