Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration
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  Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration
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Author Topic: Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration  (Read 209555 times)
Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #900 on: April 26, 2018, 09:34:13 AM »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-tariffs-cost-trump-the-farm-vote/

This is very interesting. I think there is a real chance that these tariffs might doom the GOP.
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Deblano
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« Reply #901 on: April 26, 2018, 09:56:05 PM »

Heaving read through this timeline on a few occasions over the last several months, this timeline seems seems to have the 2017-2018 era as less eventful than what's actually been happening so far with daily Trump scandals. With a wave fairly likely in 2018, isn't it likely that some sort of crisis hits in 2019 and 2020 is the realignment election much like 1980 and 1932?   

To be fair, this TL did have Trump bomb North Korea in October 2017, so I wouldn't exactly call that uneventful lol.
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Frodo
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« Reply #902 on: May 17, 2018, 10:16:36 AM »

TD, do you see a rising birthrate similar to what we had in the 1980s with the onset of the realignment?  And Democrats I assume are going to pass the 2013 immigration reform bill once they regain the trifecta, so do you also see immigration numbers going up as well?   
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Unapologetic Chinaperson
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« Reply #903 on: May 17, 2018, 08:40:57 PM »

TD, do you see a rising birthrate similar to what we had in the 1980s with the onset of the realignment?  And Democrats I assume are going to pass the 2013 immigration reform bill once they regain the trifecta, so do you also see immigration numbers going up as well?    

In the timeline, the Democrats make America's immigration laws "among the strictest in the world" to please their new WWC constituencies. So in that case, immigration numbers will go down.

But I don't see that happening in real life. Not only will America not have an immigration system like Japan (which is what TD would mean if the statement was to be taken literally), but any attempt by the Dems to do so will betray their core socially progressive, immigrant-descended base. So if the Dems go for more moderate immigration reforms, which is more likely IMO, then immigration numbers might go up, but not by too much.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #904 on: June 28, 2018, 05:39:50 PM »

With Kennedy retiring, it looks like the solidly conservative Supreme Court that President Cordray had to deal with in this timeline is closer to becoming a reality.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #905 on: October 04, 2018, 02:18:57 AM »

In Many Ways the Debt Crises in this TL is extremely similar to 2008-2010 CA and their budget crises and the GOP gets wiped out the same way due to it
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #906 on: October 06, 2018, 03:21:32 PM »

It'll be interesting to bump this after the election in a few weeks and compare the actual results to what TD predicted here. And of course to see whether or not Cordray was elected governor in OH.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #907 on: November 07, 2018, 02:28:02 AM »

Cordray has gone down
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #908 on: November 07, 2018, 02:45:07 AM »


RIP Cordray
All hail the new Kings\Queens, Evers, Beto and Kelly!
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YE
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« Reply #909 on: November 07, 2018, 02:51:42 AM »

GOP Gains in Senate; Loses in House and Governorships

November 2018 -- (Washington, D.C.) Republicans gained 4 U.S. Senate seats in the midterms while losing 4 House seats and 10 governorships, along with a raft of state legislatures. The demography and geography of the midterms dictated that the Trump Administration would be able to count on expanded Senate majorities but lose political support elsewhere. It was, in the lexicography of the pundits,  a "mixed midterm."

Republicans gained the Senate seats in West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, and Missouri while Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) hung on by a 51-48% margin. These were all in heavy Trump states, and incumbents Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill, and surprisingly, Joe Manchin all went down to defeat. However, every other Democratic incumbent hung on, including Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Bob Casey (D-Penn.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Relatively, the Senate GOP's hopes of breaching 60 votes was dashed. After the midterms, only Sen. Jon Tester and Sen. Brown resided in heavily Trump states (Montana and Ohio). In terms of what the GOP had hoped for, the 56-44 Republican majority was a disappointment for Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Senate Democrats, expecting much worse, rejoiced.  For that matter, Sens. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Dean Heller (R-Nev.) sighed in relief as they won re-election. (Heller was the one Senate Republican who kept McConnell up at night).

In the House, the 239 Republican majority dropped to 235 as Democrats made marginal gains under Minority Leader Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).  There wasn't much to report on this front, except that the House Democrats went to 200, breaching that watershed mark for the first time since 2012. Democrats and Republicans held their regions and no real breakthrough was seen. Gerrymandering and geographic domination meant the House Republicans were somewhat insulated against political forces.

President Donald Trump's approval rating held at 48% on Election Day 2018. The scandals hadn't generated enough momentum to topple him - yet.

The real story lay among the states.

The Midwestern Democrats, lacking for so long, roared back with victories in Ohio (Democrat Richard Cordray won the governorship 51-48%), Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolfe won a second term (56-43%), Michigan elected Democrat Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) governor over GOP Lt. Governor Brian Calley 53-45%. Stunningly, in Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker fell to Democrat Kathleen Vinehout 51-48%. In Iowa, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds lost re-election to Democrat Tyler Olson. Rounding out the Midwest, 2010 Illinois Democratic Senate nominee Alex Giannoulias won the governorship over incumbent Bruce Rauner (R-Ill.). In Florida, Gwen Graham wrested the governorship from the Republicans for the first time in 20 years. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.) defeated Attorney General Brian Frosh in a razor tight 49-48% win and Gov. Charlie Baker (R-Mass.) won against Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III. Altogether, the Democrats picked up the governorships of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Florida, Nevada, Kansas, Colorado, Maine, and New Mexico.  With the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey in Democratic hands, that brought the Democratic totals to 20 Republicans, 29 Democrats, and 1 independent.

The legislatures of various states shifted.  Start with the lower House. Democrats gained in Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa (flipping the chamber), Michigan (flipping it), Minnesota (flipping it), New Hampshire (flipping it), New Mexico (again, flipping it), and gained in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and narrowed the margin in Wisconsin. In the State Senate, Democrats flipped the Senate in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin. They also made gains in Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wyoming. In 2017, the Virginia State Senate had gone Democratic, meaning the Democrats held vastly more power than they did in the beginning of 2017.

All of this led to two points. One, the Congressional Republicans were doing somewhat fine  but the State Republicans were beginning to feel the Trump Administration hit them hard. Two, with redistricting coming up, the Democrats would be in the strongest position to influence redistricting since the early 1990s. And three, the Midwest was not the GOP stronghold so many had imagined.

EDIT July 15, 2017: Maryland and Massachusetts have been changed to be Republican. The number is 28 D, 21 R instead of 31-18 R. To note, these governorships went Democratic in 2022 post-crisis. The number of Democrats did not shift in Congress in either state delegation.  

EDIT August 4, 2017: With West Virginia's Governor switching parties, I have adjusted the post-2018 figures. It's 28 Democratic, 21 R. So a gain of 13 governorships for the Democratic Party.

This seems to have aged okay - right on the Senate gains to some extent but wrong on the House and somewhat too bullish on the governor races.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #910 on: November 07, 2018, 03:18:38 PM »

Does TD still post on here? I'd be curious to see what his thoughts are on Cordray losing and whether or not he has any thoughts on who could be an alternative.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #911 on: November 07, 2018, 03:22:33 PM »

Does TD still post on here? I'd be curious to see what his thoughts are on Cordray losing and whether or not he has any thoughts on who could be an alternative.

Maybe Whitmer (though I doubt it )
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #912 on: November 07, 2018, 03:41:28 PM »

Does TD still post on here? I'd be curious to see what his thoughts are on Cordray losing and whether or not he has any thoughts on who could be an alternative.

Maybe Whitmer (though I doubt it )

Maybe Sherrod Brown? I think he had him pegged as more of an Al Smith-esque figure but he does fit the profile. Beto O'Rourke strikes me as another possibility despite losing.



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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #913 on: November 07, 2018, 07:50:41 PM »

Does TD still post on here? I'd be curious to see what his thoughts are on Cordray losing and whether or not he has any thoughts on who could be an alternative.

Maybe Whitmer (though I doubt it )

Maybe Sherrod Brown? I think he had him pegged as more of an Al Smith-esque figure but he does fit the profile. Beto O'Rourke strikes me as another possibility despite losing.





He literally had Brown losing in 2020 in this timeline.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #914 on: November 08, 2018, 09:12:38 AM »

I'll post a write up if Arizona's McSally wins (which will keep BTM on track). Cordray's loss is a big problem but I suspect the realigner will still come from the Midwest, as Obama (the foreshadowing President) came from Illinois).

But let me wait to see what happens in Arizona first. The Senate GOP gaining a net 3 seats means the 2024 Senate blowout would be comparable to 2008. I didn't imagine a scenario possible where the GOP would gain 3 but lose the House because it hadn't happened before (most comparable, ironically, was the first midterm of the current alignment in 1982).
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #915 on: November 08, 2018, 02:07:03 PM »

I'll post a write up if Arizona's McSally wins (which will keep BTM on track). Cordray's loss is a big problem but I suspect the realigner will still come from the Midwest, as Obama (the foreshadowing President) came from Illinois).

But let me wait to see what happens in Arizona first. The Senate GOP gaining a net 3 seats means the 2024 Senate blowout would be comparable to 2008. I didn't imagine a scenario possible where the GOP would gain 3 but lose the House because it hadn't happened before (most comparable, ironically, was the first midterm of the current alignment in 1982).

I would say this election was more 1970 than 1982



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Boss_Rahm
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« Reply #916 on: November 08, 2018, 09:15:46 PM »

TD, curious what you think of the geography of Democrats' House pickups (largely in suburban districts, while losing two rural districts in MN), and how that compares to your expectations.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #917 on: November 09, 2018, 11:43:38 AM »

Or Cordray nearly winning while doing worse than the some guy Kasich stomped in Appalachia.
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Frodo
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« Reply #918 on: January 12, 2019, 10:27:44 AM »

New Revelations about Trump Scandals ... and Russia

Just thought I'd check up on this timeline and see how well it is lining up with reality.  A few details are a bit off (McCain is no longer with us, for example), but the overall storyline is matching up well with current events.

And just to remind everyone, sometime later this year it is predicted here that Trump will step down and Pence will step up to replace him.   
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Frodo
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« Reply #919 on: September 26, 2019, 07:33:10 PM »

bump
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timrtabor123
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« Reply #920 on: September 28, 2019, 03:08:25 AM »
« Edited: September 28, 2019, 03:11:49 AM by timrtabor123 »

Yeah, this merits a bump to see if the author is still around. Crazy week and the impeachment level scandal basically right on schedule too isn't it?
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #921 on: September 28, 2019, 05:50:08 PM »


I was thinking the same thing.

I'm getting ahead of myself obviously, but I am kind of amused as to how relatively accurate his prognostication of the 2020 Democratic primary has been thus far. Warren and Biden seem to be fulfilling the roles IRL that he envisioned for Brown and Cuomo. Not to mention his prediction of Booker's and Hickenlooper's respective candidacies being flops turning out to be the case got a chuckle from me.
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
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« Reply #922 on: September 28, 2019, 05:55:50 PM »

I've always kept the Azerbaijan tower story from this TL in my head for the last few years. The idea that Trump gets brought down by something none of us were really paying attention to. It's looking like we might finally get there Smiley
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Suburban Republican
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« Reply #923 on: September 28, 2019, 10:53:18 PM »

It scares me how well this timeline has gotten the big picture correct (Democrats gaining in the house but losing seats in the senate, the Democratic Party’s permanent shift to the left and embrace of a progressive candidate over a moderate (Warren vs. Biden?) in 2020, Trumps probable impeachment over something nobody saw coming). Obviously, some of the details are off, but that can only be expected from a timeline written a couple years ago.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #924 on: September 29, 2019, 07:35:24 PM »

I'm still here. I tend to be on Discord a lot more than here. Apparently, instead of Azerbaijain, we're getting Ukraine.

I will say the GOP is not knocked out but Trump might be hitting the end of his rope.

Feel free to leave questions or topics you want me to address, if anything. 
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