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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #875 on: January 26, 2018, 10:27:42 PM »

What is the state of world affairs around 2070?  Would like some context. 
Guessing, and this isn't canon, but a multipolar world. China, India, Europe, the US and closely bound allies, and Africa all make up major power blocs. The world is integrated, most people can travel anywhere they want, war is nearly gone, and translation software is advanced enough to break down most barriers. There isn't a world government yet, but a presidential candidate stating it as a goal is accepted, and not even that remarkable.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #876 on: January 27, 2018, 04:20:10 PM »

Can I live in this world, Jalawest? Because it sounds heavenly.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #877 on: January 27, 2018, 05:50:09 PM »

Part 2: Five-Fifty Monday Night Summary

Who will win and who will lose tomorrow night?
Well, the Real Clear Politics Polling Average has this to say.
Ariana Ward (R-WI): 46.6%
Nayara Bustos (D-NV): 44.8%
Zoey Kelly (S-MO): 1.3%
Mila Thompson (CON-NY): 1.1%
Other/Undecided: 6.2%


The average for political rating agencies looks like this


With the statistics being
Solid D: 23
Likely D: 52
Lean D: 117

Tossup: 54
Lean R: 126
Likely R: 135
Solid R: 43


Or, you could say,
Democratic: 192
Republican: 304

With the election approaching tomorrow, Ward appears to have a near-dominant lead, with a polling and electoral advantage and an impenetrable red wall of states. Senator Bustos better hope for a near-miracle on Tuesday, because it seems like she will need one. Bustos needs not only to sweep the table in democratic and tossup states, but also grab a few states leaning towards Ward.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #878 on: January 28, 2018, 08:29:48 PM »

Election Night, Part 1 (6 PM-9 PM)
6: The time is now 6 PM, and polls are closing in Kentucky and Indiana. We are not able to call either state at this time.


6: Polls have now closed for the Senate Race in Kentucky, where the Republican incumbent, Avery Watkins, appears certain to outrun Ward tonight. We cannot, however, make a call quite yet.


7 PM: The time is now 7 PM, and we have poll closings in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and Puerto Rico. The only one we can call at this time is Puerto Rico, which makes the tally 6 Bustos to 0 Ward.


7: We have several more poll closings for the Senate, but we are not prepared to make any calls yet.



7:30 PM: The polls are closing in Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia. We cannot project any of them at this time, however, we can project Indiana for Governor Ward, and Kentucky for Senator Bustos, bringing the tally to 9R-13D.



7:30: The polls for the elections in North Carolina, Puerto Rico and West Virginia have just closed. We cannot call North Carolina, but we can call West Virginia and Kentucky for the Republicans, both of whom have far outperformed Ward in their states tonight.  Puerto Rico, obviously, we can call for Representative Gabriel Rodriguez. 




8 PM: The time is 8 PM, and polls are closing across the country. We can project Kansas and New Hampshire for Governor Ward, versus D.C, West Virginia, and Mississippi for Bustos, no surprises there. Senator Bustos is posting early leads in an awful lot of states tonight, perhaps a sign she is outperforming her polls. The current electoral college tally is 18R-26D

8: A number of states have polls closing now, and we can call several of them. Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas we can all call for the Republicans, versus Mississippi staying with the Democrats even after Young retires.




The time is now 8:30 PM, and polls are closing in Arkansas, which we cannot call at this time. However, we can call South Carolina for Senator Bustos, expanding her lead to 16 electoral votes.



8:30: We have a number of important calls to make. Maine and Massachusetts we can both call for the democrats. Maine, especially, is a shocker, with an incumbent republican in a purple state seeming on track to lose by double digits. I did not expect that tonight. We can also call Tennessee and Alabama for the Republicans. In Alabama, Kayla Young is winning in a landslide victory in a blue state for this open seat. We have two flips already, and no net change.


8:30 PM:



9 PM: The time is now 9 PM, and polls are closing all throughout the Midwest. We have a number of calls for Governor Ward, closing the gap for here to only 7 electoral votes. Nebraska’s 2nd district, North Dakota, South Dakota, her home state of Wisconsin, and Wyoming will go for her. We cannot call any other states at this time.


9: We have a number of poll closings and calls to make, and I will say that this does not look good for the blue team. In Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa, we can call all of them for Republicans right as the polls close. In Virginia, North Carolina, and New Jersey, and early, three more pickups of open seats. New Hampshire too goes Republican again tonight. Ward might not win tonight, but with 52 out of 108 seats already in the bag, but Majority Leader Gonzalez seems very very likely to keep his gavel.



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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #879 on: January 29, 2018, 02:21:25 PM »

I love that this TL is still going!! Also: It's really confusing seeing the Democrats as red on the map but having the news people refer to them as blue lol
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #880 on: January 29, 2018, 05:20:11 PM »

Election Night, Part 2 (9:30 PM-MIDNIGHT)
9:30 PM: We have a number of calls to make now that we were not able to earlier. Ward will win Minnesota, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and the remainder of Nebraska’s electoral votes. Senator Bustos will carry Louisiana and Vermont, and Maine’s 2nd district. This brings the electoral tally to 82-53. Ward has gained her first lead in the electoral college of the night, though Bustos does seem to be outperforming her expectations.



10 PM: We can call multiple states, amid the poll closings. We can call Connecticut, Michigan, and Utah for Governor Ward. Senator Bustos will win Alabama and her home state of Nevada. This brings the tally to 105 for Ward versus 69 for Bustos.


10: Three more calls, none of which should be surprising. We can call Montana and Idaho for the Republicans, giving them 54 guaranteed seats already. Rhode Island, on the other hand, we can call for the Democrats.




10:30 PM: We have some more calls to make now. Arkansas and Missouri we can call for Bustos, along with New Mexico. Iowa, Virginia, and Maine’s 1st district we can call for Ward. This brings the tally to 126-88. Ward is leading in the electoral and popular vote, but Senator Bustos has a much clearer path to victory, especially with Texas leaning towards her, than she did a few hours ago,



10:30: Three notable calls, right now. Michigan and New Mexico can be called for the democrats, crucial during this election. Unfortunately for them, we can now call Delaware for State Senator Haley Phillips, giving them their fifth gain tonight, and, crucially, their 55th seat. Majority Leader Gonzalez can now rest assured he will keep his gavel, regardless of what happens downballot.



11 PM: As the west coast closes, we have some calls to make. Maryland goes Democratic, Illinois goes Republican, but we can’t call any of the states that just closed. Bustos appears to be falling out of contention.



11: We can now call Colorado for the Republicans. That is all.



11:30 PM: We can now call Massachusetts for Ward, and New York for Senator Bustos, a sign of the split across the northeast tonight. This brings the tally to 154 Ward, 126 Bustos.



12 PM: CALLS! CALLS! CALLS! Alaska, Mars, and Luna close, and every state has now wrapped up their election. We can call Alaska and Mars, both for Ward. For Senator Bustos, we can call Texas and Ohio, and with that she takes the lead, to the tune of 161-184.



Midnight: We can now call Alaska for incumbent senator Liu, along with the Class 2 Lunar Senate Election for the Republicans. The Democrats hold their seat in Georgia, one of the few bright signs in the south tonight.



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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #881 on: January 29, 2018, 07:11:50 PM »

Mars and the Moon have enough population for statehood???

And I wouldn't be surprised if Guam, NMI, and the Virgin Islands aren't even states while the MOON is
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #882 on: January 30, 2018, 03:45:11 PM »

Election Night, Part 3 (Midnight-4 PM)
The time is now 12:30 AM, and we have a few more calls to make. We can now call Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington for Governor Ward. For Senator Bustos, we can call Tennessee. All of these are normal calls, and this makes the electoral college count 195 for Ward to 197 for Senator Bustos. This election seems balanced on a knife’s edge.





12:30 AM: We can now call South Carolina for the Republicans, their 6th pickup of the night.

The time is now 1:30 AM, and we can call Georgia for Governor Ward. With that, she retakes the lead.
1:30 AM: If Sean Miller is still awake, he just got a bit of good news in this depressing year. Oregon, Arkansas, and the Lunar Special Election can all be called for the Democrats, giving them three more gains, desperately needed tonight. The Democrats will now be able to filibuster in the Senate.


2:00 AM: And we can now call Luna, for the first time every in a presidential election, for Governor Ward.
2:45 AM: And we can now call Colorado for Governor Ward. She now has 228 electoral votes, to Bustos’s 197. California alone can put her over the top.

3:30 AM: Louisiana can now be called for the Republicans for the Senate. Voters were not happy with Senator Edwards tonight, and it showed, with a 24! point swing against him. Minnesota is still unknown, but appears to be going to a recount eventually.



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Former President tack50
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« Reply #883 on: January 30, 2018, 06:46:44 PM »

Mars and the Moon have enough population for statehood???

And I wouldn't be surprised if Guam, NMI, and the Virgin Islands aren't even states while the MOON is

Yeah, not to mention that I seriously doubt the rest of the world would just allow the US to grab the entire Moon for themselves. Most likely it would just be some sort of international protectorate I guess.

In fact, isn't space by current rules basically neutral ground?

Then again at that point it's basically sci-fi so who really knows?
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #884 on: January 30, 2018, 06:56:52 PM »

Mars and the Moon have enough population for statehood???

And I wouldn't be surprised if Guam, NMI, and the Virgin Islands aren't even states while the MOON is

Yeah, not to mention that I seriously doubt the rest of the world would just allow the US to grab the entire Moon for themselves. Most likely it would just be some sort of international protectorate I guess.

In fact, isn't space by current rules basically neutral ground?

Then again at that point it's basically sci-fi so who really knows?

well I'd argue that "The Moon" and "Mars" in the context of Jalawest's election night would be shorthand for "The American Lunar Sector" and "The American Martian Sector"
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #885 on: January 30, 2018, 07:06:34 PM »

Why couldn't Mars and the Moon get parcelled up?
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #886 on: January 30, 2018, 08:37:47 PM »

Mars and the Moon have enough population for statehood???

And I wouldn't be surprised if Guam, NMI, and the Virgin Islands aren't even states while the MOON is

Yeah, not to mention that I seriously doubt the rest of the world would just allow the US to grab the entire Moon for themselves. Most likely it would just be some sort of international protectorate I guess.

In fact, isn't space by current rules basically neutral ground?

Then again at that point it's basically sci-fi so who really knows?

well I'd argue that "The Moon" and "Mars" in the context of Jalawest's election night would be shorthand for "The American Lunar Sector" and "The American Martian Sector"
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #887 on: January 31, 2018, 12:35:24 PM »


I mean, it could be done. It's just that under current rules it is not allowed. Then again it's physically not possible to establish Moon/Mars bases either.

I guess the rules can be changed.

For some reason I was thinking of 2060's Mars/Moon to today's Antarctica, where it might be parceled up but no one really takes the claims seriously.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #888 on: January 31, 2018, 04:50:58 PM »

Election Night, Part 4 (Final)
4:15 AM: We can now call California, and it goes for Senator Bustos. She now is leading, with 255 electoral votes.

7 AM: And we can now call Oklahoma for Governor Ward, a gain for her from last election.
8 AM: We can now call Maine’s 2 at large electoral votes for Senator Bustos. Only five states remain, with both candidates having paths to victory.
11 AM: We can call Hawaii, now for Senator Bustos. She is now barely short of those she needs to win. North Carolina or Arizona will put her over the top.
12 AM: And we can now call Rhode Island for Senator Bustos. The score is now 273 to 241. Any victory will put Bustos over the top, although she does seem to have lost the popular vote.

12:45 PM: And we can now call North Carolina, for Senator, now President-Elect, Nayara Bustos. With this victory she has won 288 electoral votes, enough to win the presidency of the United States of America.



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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #889 on: January 31, 2018, 07:10:54 PM »

Yay!!!! Is she the first Latina president?
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #890 on: January 31, 2018, 11:20:16 PM »

Me and Spenstar have agreed to collaborate on a timeline covering the political, social, and economic landscape in the 2032-2056 period. More details will come out as the project progresses.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #891 on: January 31, 2018, 11:24:40 PM »

Yay!!!! Is she the first Latina president?
Yes. More is to come, in a new thread.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #892 on: February 01, 2018, 08:47:19 PM »

Final Map and Results
Governor Ariana Ward (R-WI)/Governor Wyatt Kelly (R-UT): 49.23%, 245 electoral votes
Senator Nayara Bustos (D-NV)/Governor Madison Barnes (D-KY): 48.51%, 305 electoral votes
Former State Senator Mila Thompson (CON-NY): 1.21%, 0 electoral votes
Businesswoman Zoey Kelly (S-MO): .88%, 0 electoral votes
Other: .17%


Senate Final Results


Senate Majority Leader Nick Gonzalez (R-TX): 61 (+4): 55.39%
Senate Minority Leader Sean Miller (D-WI) : 47 (-4): 42.78%


House elections (these aren’t the actual seats, but the figures and rough pattern are true)
Speaker Gabrielle Thomas (D-MI-5): 49.96%, 230 seats (+15)
House Minority Leader Anthony Bennett (R-NY-12): 49.04%, 212 seats (-15)

To continue, follow the thread here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=283775.0
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« Reply #893 on: March 18, 2018, 01:21:54 AM »

All credit for the table of contents goes to "NJ is better than TX." Thank you!

Between Two Majorities

The Divided States of America - The Trump Administration
0. Prelude: Election Night 2016
1. The Forty Seventh President of the United States and the Great Realignment
2. Situating the Trump Coalition and the Two Majorities
    2a. Part I
    2b. Part II
3. The Trump Coalition: Alt-Right v. the Establishment
4. The Trump White House and Cabinet: A Band of Brothers
5. Donald John Trump Sworn in as 45th President of the United States- and the First Five Months
6. Democratic Civil War Underway
7. RyanCare: A Huge Fight on the Floor
8. Dysfunction in Trump Washington
9. Illiberal Donald Trump: Why the Dictatorship Never Happened
10. The Great Scandal of 2018
11. Between Two Majorities: The Trump Presidency (2016-To Date (2018))
12. The Trump Economy: 2017 to 2018
13. State of the World: 2017 to Late 2018
14. The Media and Donald Trump
15. Race in the Age of Trump
16. GOP Gains in Senate; Loses in House and Governorships
17. New Revelations about Trump Scandals ... and Russia

The Calm - The Pence Administration, Part I
18. The Trump Administration Ends; Pence Prepares to Become 46th President
19. Vice President Michael R. Pence Becomes 46th President; Restores Stability to White House
20. Trump: Doomed from the Start?
21. President Pence and the New Age of Stability
22. Obama and Donald Trump: Political Twins as Outsiders
23. Economy Slowly Recovers
24. Global Nationalist Storms Abound
25. Democrats Look Ahead to 2020: Brown and Cuomo Square Off
26. Democratic Nomination Settled: Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)
27. Schumer, McConnell negotiate ObamaCare Deal
28. The Dog That Didn't Bark: Immigration and the Wall
29. The GOP takes on the Opioid Epidemic
30. Trump strikes at North Korea Regime; Disables Nuke Program
31. 2020 Conventions: Brown/Malloy v. Pence/Haley
32. Pence v. Brown: A Brutal Fall Campaign
33. Election Night 2020 Coverage
    33a. Presidential Results
    33b. Senate Results
    33c. Gubernational Results

The Storm - The Pence Administration, Part II
34. President Pence Given a Full Term
    34a. Author Commentary, Part I
    34b. Author Commentary, Part II
35. President Michael R. Pence Takes Oath of Office
36. A Cultural and Technological Sea Change...Or the First Part of the Realignment
37. China's Government Reels as Economy Collapses
38. China's Government Collapsing; World Responding with Alarm
39. Illinois Insolvent, Asks Federal Government for Aid
40. President Pence Does an About-Face, Urges Congress to Help States
41. Economy Facing Recession; President Addresses Nation as Government Shuts Down
42. Country Faces Prolonged Shutdown; Pence Looking "Crippled"
43. Nationwide Protests as Pence Administration Flounders
44. Budget Resolution in Sight; Democrats Back Down for "National Unity" as GOP "Compromises"
45. Bernie "Barry Goldwater" Sanders' Long Game
46. Democrats Becoming Party of South (+Southwest) while GOP Adopts "Northern Strategy"
47. Fall Portends Brutal Midterms
48. Blue Crush: Democrats Make Massive Midterm Gains
    48a. Midterm Results
49. Democrats Roar into Capitol Hill in 2023 and take levers of power
50. Democratic Congress and President Pence Lock Horns
51. The Tax Cut of 2022 is a Failure

Realignment - The 2024 Elections
52. The Big Three Seeking the Democratic Presidential Nomination
53. President Pence Faces Primary Challenge from Senator Cruz
54. Cruz and Pence Struggle while Cordray Holds Lead in Democratic Primaries
55. Ohio Governor Richard Cordray Democratic Nominee for President
56. Pence Turns Back Cruz as divided GOP stumbles into 2024
57. Democrats Nominate a President and See Land of Canaan
58. GOP Trudges into Atlanta for their Convention a Divided Party
59. Cordray-Castro squares off against Pence-Haley
60. Cordray, Democrats Poised for Historic Victory
61. Election Night 2024
    61a. Final Update
    61b. Presidential and Senate Results
    61c. Gubernational Results
    61d. Primary Maps

Phoenix - The Cordary Administration
62. President-Elect Cordray's Victory and Why
    63a. Election 2024 Meta: Part I
    63b. Election 2024 Meta: Part II
64. Epilogue
65. Richard Cordray Inaugurated as 47th President of the United States

Supplementals
66. Foreign Policy and the Debt Leadup
67. The Democrats and Trump: 2017-2018
68. Why RyanCare Failed
69. Senate Elections: 2026, 2028, 2030
70. Climate Change: The Great Global Warming Threat
71. The Current Party System: Conservative Neoliberal Nationalist Populism
72. Prediction Update Through May 2017
73. The Weakest Realignment of American History and Why:
    73a. Part Ia
    73b. Part Ib
    73c. Part II
74. How the Reagan macroeconomic regime will create another realignment in the 2020s (By Technocratic Timmy)
75. #TwoPaths: The Republican Populist Third Party Candidacy.
76. The Current Party System: Conservative Neoliberal Nationalist Populism  
77. County by County Map: The Realignment
78. The Great Crisis of 2021
79. Populist versus Business coalitions: An American History.

With the tax cuts in place, it looks like the stage is being set for that realignment:

How debt could blow up the Trump economy

The question now is whether that eventual blow-up occurs roughly at about the time predicted here. 
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Unapologetic Chinaperson
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« Reply #894 on: March 25, 2018, 02:09:53 PM »

So another Atlas poster had linked to this article, which predicts a realignment similar to this one (but using Californian instead of national politics as a guide). What do you all think?

Medium: California is the Future
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #895 on: March 26, 2018, 05:45:29 AM »

Re: the 2068 elections - Mars and the Moon getting statehood before PR is...... galling.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #896 on: March 26, 2018, 08:55:54 AM »

Re: the 2068 elections - Mars and the Moon getting statehood before PR is...... galling.
PR is a state, and has been one since the Cordray administration.
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« Reply #897 on: March 26, 2018, 09:02:58 AM »

Re: the 2068 elections - Mars and the Moon getting statehood before PR is...... galling.
PR is a state, and has been one since the Cordray administration.

So are Mars and the Moon one state?
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #898 on: March 26, 2018, 09:18:37 AM »

Re: the 2068 elections - Mars and the Moon getting statehood before PR is...... galling.
PR is a state, and has been one since the Cordray administration.

So are Mars and the Moon one state?
No, they are two separate, recently admitted states.
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« Reply #899 on: April 14, 2018, 07:38:02 PM »

Heaving read through this timeline on a few occasions over the last several months, this timeline seems seems to have the 2017-2018 era as less eventful than what's actually been happening so far with daily Trump scandals. With a wave fairly likely in 2018, isn't it likely that some sort of crisis hits in 2019 and 2020 is the realignment election much like 1980 and 1932?   
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