Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[Deblano]

I wonder what politics is like in Virginia during this timeline (i.e. governorships, senate seats, congressional seats, etc.)

[Blackacre]

TD and I put together this write-up for the 2036 election, in which President Castro wins a 4th consecutive term for the GOP. (See if you can spot which parts I wrote and which parts he wrote )

The Election of 2036

It seemed as though all historical signs pointed to 2036 being a Republican victory. Between Richard Cordray and Julian Castro, the Democratic Party had been in power for 12 years. No party had secured a fourth term in office since FDR, and two Presidents of the same party hadn't won two terms back-to-back since Reconstruction. Besides, the 2034 midterms showed that the American people had an appetite for Republican leadership again; they had just won the House and 6 Senate seats. All the Republican Party had to do was nominate somebody. Oh, if only it were that easy.

Ever since arguably the election of Donald Trump, the Republicans have been mired in a civil war between different factions. There was always the Reaganite wing, but their adversaries were different. Back in the days of old, they were up against the Bannonite wing, a conflict papered over by Pence for a little while. While that feud never really died, in 2036 they also had to contend with a new faction of the party: technocratic moderate types, sometimes referred to as the New Democrats of the 2030s. The stage was set for an epic GOP nominating struggle, which would end horribly unless the party could find a hero to paper over the intraparty civil war once again. They found their man in an unlikely place: Connecticut. Dubbed "the Scott Walker of the East," Gov. Tim Saint (R-Connecticut) was the complete package. He was passionate like Trump, but level-headed like Pence, and accomplished like Walker. If any man in America could emerge from the GOP primary season alive, Saint was it. Conservative forces had looked to 1992 and thought they could replicate the victory as if Taft won 1952. Governor Saint had fought against the hardline Reverend John Abernathy and Sen. Howard Waltz (R-WY). The GOP nomination had been long and bloody, like the 1988 struggle as the GOP attempted to define its identity. The “electability” wing had fought against the “purity” wing. Saint was the grand compromise. He chose Kentucky Governor Danny Carroll (R-KY) as his running mate, as part of a strategy to take back Appalachia and win back the White House with the support of Real America^(TM).

The election of 2036 was not about the same issues as 2024. The Cordray agenda had been cemented. No Democrat or Republican was going to take away Medicare for All, or universal college education or the net neutrality that the 47th and 48th Presidents had enacted. Climate change now was an enacted part of the national agenda. The sea change from 2024 could not have been more stark. It was like the comparison of 1920 to 1948. The issues were fundamentally different, the nominees starkly different from their predecessors. The great Republican coalition of 1980 to 2024 lay shattered and the GOP was trying to piecemeal put together a new coalition. Evangelicals were gone. The business coalition was extraordinarily weak. The campaign of 2036 centered around how to refine the reforms of Cordray-Castro, not how to overturn them. The GOP knew this after three electoral losses and having lost Congress. Nobody on the conservative side was deluding themselves. They just wanted to refine the expansion that had happened. A conservative rebalancing. Like the election of 1940, 1988, and the 1880s, the GOP nominees hoped to balance ancient ideologies with the modern realities.  Tim Saint and Danny Caroll thought they could balance the Reaganite ideology with the new times.           
On the Democratic side, President Julian Castro (D-TX) and Vice President Kristy Pagan knew full well that they were fighting recent history and were probably underdogs to win, but if they were going down, they wanted to go down like Russ Feingold, fighting until the last vote was cast. The economy was strong, after all, and they had so much work to do. They needed to make sure Castro's immigration reforms were enacted smoothly, that his and Cordray's new social programs wouldn't be dismantled, that the many high-speed rail projects completed under their watch would amount to something.

Saint invested heavily in the Appalachian states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky, as well as the whole of the Midwest and South. He spoke of Real American Values^(TM) and the evils of the Cordray-Castro economic regime. By passing immigration reform, Castro had shown his true colors, Saint claimed. Castro toured the nation not only touting his accomplishments, but making the case for policy after policy that the Senate passed and that he supported but has just languished in the GOP-controlled House.

In the fall campaign, the Democratic Party waved the bloody flag of Trump and Pence, warning voters Saint was a rerun of the Trump-Pence White Houses. Just as George the Elder had in 1988 and Harry Truman did in 1948, President Castro urged voters to note that progress would be rolled back under a Saint White House.  The Saint campaign was - like Dewey and Dukakis - caught between the old and new, and weakly straddled both, looking weak in the fall campaign. By mid October, President Castro was leading 51% to 44% in polling.

It wasn’t even really Governor Saint's fault; nobody could have threaded the needle perfectly, and he did better than most. But having to constantly delicately balance two wings of a party that hate each other, when the party isn’t even a majority coalition party, is a recipe for disaster. Saint led the GOP to a fourth consecutive loss, something the contemporary world thought shouldn’t be historically possible.

The Industrial Midwest swung to the GOP as well as the Mid-Atlantic States of Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Saint’s moderate campaign and home region advantage helped take Connecticut, Maine, and New Hampshire, while losing New York by just 53-45%. His Ohio victory was 52-46%, Pennsylvania 52-45%, and New Jersey 50-48%. Interestingly, in the Upper Midwest, Saint was held to a 44-48% range. In Iowa, he won 62% of the vote. The President swept the Sunbelt, winning 55% in Texas, 61% in California, 54% in Arizona, and 56% in California. Florida returned Democratic, on the backs of Latinos and millenial voters, 53-44%. Illinois was a little closer, 53-46%, for the President.  The Sunbelt string of victories and Dixie (and the Pacific Coast) helped secure the popular vote for the President, of around 7%.


President Julian Castro (D-TX)/Vice President Kristy Pagan (D-MI) - ~367 EVs, 52%
Governor Tim Saint (R-CT)/Governor Danny Carroll (R-KY) - ~178 EVs, 45%

But in reality, history suggested that the Castro-Pagan victory was not an aberration. Jefferson and his heirs (arguably the 4th to the 8th Presidencies) had held the White House for 40 years. Lincoln, Grant, Hayes, and Garfield had all scored Republican victories all the way from 1860 to 1880. FDR and Truman had kept the White House in Democratic hands for 20 years. Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush were the shortest, and arguably, this was because the Reagan coalition had not commanded over 50% of the electorate in both the Presidency and Congress. Indeed, the Castro re-election victory was kind of a return to the norm. After a realignment, one party rule for a prolonged period was the norm. The hidden secret of American history was that divided government was the aberration, not the norm. Usually, the electorate preferred to keep one party with a firm hand on the reins of power, at least at the beginning of a realignment.          
2036 Senate Elections:

Democrats: 63 (+3)
Republicans: 41 (-3)

A Democratic incumbent in NJ went down due to the state going Republican and due to a corruption scandal, but aside from that, Democrats did pretty good. Senator Elise Stefanik (R-NY) lost to former White House Deputy Communications Director Spenser Dettwyler, who worked in the Cordray campaign and administration as a speechwriter. In Indiana, the Class 1 seat continued its streak of being ungodly cursed, with no incumbent holding that seat since 2006. Democrats were comfortably above 60 seats now, thanks in no small part to the 4 free Senate seats from DC and Puerto Rico they got in 2025, but the filibuster was abolished in 2030 anyway. On the House level, Democrats won 32 seats and reversed the 16 seat GOP majority. Democrats had a trifecta again.
One targeted seat, however, fell through the cracks. The DFL put up a decent challenger, but despite Castro winning the state, Senator Corrin Dawson (R-MN) won by 5 points. However, he wasn't just focused on his own race. He was taking notes. Reagan-era targets like Florida and Georgia and North Carolina weren't budging, but Illinois and New York were closer than they should have been. Washington and Oregon showed potential to budge too. From that night, Dawson began to put forward a plan to put together a New Republican coalition that could actually win the White House. Bur first, he'd have to find a way to end the intraparty war that consumed Saint this time around...

edit: changed Senate math to reflect DC and Puerto Rico getting statehood in 2025

[Boss_Rahm]

Very well written! Might want to fix that first sentence though...

[Deblano]

Four elections with a Democrat landslide and a divided opposition?

It seems like in your write up the Democrats will end up being like the LDP of Japan, while the Republicans become like the divided Democratic Party of Japan, frequently suffering losses and winning once in a blue moon.

[BigVic]

Great update. The Trump-Pence era fractured the GOP forever. The TL extends beyond 2030 as stated in the title.

[TheSaint250]

Great job!

Happy for the shout-out

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

in which President Castro wins a 4th consecutive term for the GOP.

Sounds like the Cuban election interference campaign was even more successful than the Russian one!

[_]

Four elections with a Democrat landslide and a divided opposition?

It seems like in your write up the Democrats will end up being like the LDP of Japan, while the Republicans become like the divided Democratic Party of Japan, frequently suffering losses and winning once in a blue moon.

Great update. The Trump-Pence era fractured the GOP forever. The TL extends beyond 2030 as stated in the title.

All this is is the initial Democratic hold on the Presidency lasting an extra 4 years, it just means the Cordray alignment is going to be stronger than the Reagan Alignment, not that the GOP is completely crippled.

[Blackacre]

Well, the GOP IS completely crippled, at least for a while. However, nothing last forever in American party politics

[The Govanah Jake]

Well, the GOP IS completely crippled, at least for a while. However, nothing last forever in American party politics

Yea, that gets me thinking what a hypothetical realignment between both party's would occur after this alignment. Say it would occur in the 2050s - Late 2070s

[The_Doctor]

So it appears the January 2018 shutdown eerily foreshadows the shutdown of 2021. The Republicans are a lot more united this time around but the main differential is that we're fighting a shutdown in a good time not a crisis.

Lots of weird parallels. Feels a lot like a foreshadowing. The HFC bargaining with Ryan and the Senate GOP defections allude to a split Republican Party stitched together by a good economy. The 2018 shutdown seems to confirm my thinking that the economic recession of 2021 will become a crisis through the shutdown vehicle.

What's eerie is that there are now two shutdowns in the same decade, 5 years apart. There was 1y year between the 1995 and 1996 shutdowns but then 17 years between. I don't think the shutdowns of the 1980s were this partisan but I wasn't really alive then. And this is the first one party shutdown since the Carter Administration (a time of one party rule).

Government funding is the one surefire way to turn a recession into a full blown realigning crisis. Realignments tend to happen because the ruling party fails to govern the country and a manageable situation spirals out of control. Ergo, why I chose a government funding fight. Under GOP rule.

[Deblano]

I agree 100% that we are the second coming of the Disjunctive "Carter-esque" Presidency, but I disagree with the idea that a major economic crisis will spur a coming realignment (at least I hope not because I need to find a job ). There could be a mild recession like in the late 1980s if the stock market slumps.

I think what we are seeing with the stuff like the government shutdown is a sharp deteriorating of Trump being the outsider, populist, dealmaker who would come in and shake things up. Instead the government shutdown intensifies a general feeling of malaise within the United States. Like in 1978, 2018 shows a United States that has a complete lack of confidence and a general sentiment that it's status as the main superpower is coming to a bitter end.

[Frodo]

Do you see Roe v Wade being overturned in this timeline sometime during either Trump or Pence's administrations? 

[The_Doctor]

Do you see Roe v Wade being overturned in this timeline sometime during either Trump or Pence's administrations? 

No. White women vote GOP and the deal was, if Roe is tossed, they go Democratic.  Abortion is pretty much a sham. Everyone knows that the GOP uses abortion as a cultural codeword, not actually tossing Roe. They'll limit abortions some but a gutting of Roe would kung fu the RNC.

[uti2]

Do you see Roe v Wade being overturned in this timeline sometime during either Trump or Pence's administrations? 

No. White women vote GOP and the deal was, if Roe is tossed, they go Democratic.  Abortion is pretty much a sham. Everyone knows that the GOP uses abortion as a cultural codeword, not actually tossing Roe. They'll limit abortions some but a gutting of Roe would kung fu the RNC.

That's how Charlie Crist/John Boehner-style republicans see the issue, not Tea Party republicans.

I guarantee you that if a Tea Party socon been elected in the style of Walker/Rubio/Cruz, they absolutely would've gutted it. They're true believers, Pence would do it as well.

The only way Roe isn't gutted with the GOP in charge of the government is if the republican has some inherently moderate tendencies a la Jeb/Kasich/Christie/Trump, which is why your timeline wouldn't work if it features a Tea Party republican or a pro-Tea Party republican (like Pence) in charge of the government.

[The_Doctor]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

About a Government shutdown, I don't think it would happen if Trump wasn't President.


The reason for that is Trump was the one who sabotaged the DACA deal at the last minute while virtually any GOP president would not have even removed DACA in the first place.


Also with a unified GOP government, the GOP Donors would put a huge amount of pressure on most congressional Republicans to not shut down the Government under a GOP president so their likely won't be a shutdown with a Pence Presidency(Cruz also would not shut down the government under a GOP President because in reality he is part of the establishment who pretends to be an outsider under a Dem Presidency).

[uti2]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

About a Government shutdown, I don't think it would happen if Trump wasn't President.


The reason for that is Trump was the one who sabotaged the DACA deal at the last minute while virtually any GOP president would not have even removed DACA in the first place.


Also with a unified GOP government, the GOP Donors would put a huge amount of pressure on most congressional Republicans to not shut down the Government under a GOP president so their likely won't be a shutdown with a Pence Presidency(Cruz also would not shut down the government under a GOP President because in reality he is part of the establishment who pretends to be an outsider under a Dem Presidency).

Walker and Cruz were the two conventional republicans that attempted to take a somewhat harder line on immigration much to the chagrin of the donors though.

http://web.archive.org/web/20150802000148/bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-21/scott-walker-breaks-with-the-kochs-on-immigration

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

About a Government shutdown, I don't think it would happen if Trump wasn't President.


The reason for that is Trump was the one who sabotaged the DACA deal at the last minute while virtually any GOP president would not have even removed DACA in the first place.


Also with a unified GOP government, the GOP Donors would put a huge amount of pressure on most congressional Republicans to not shut down the Government under a GOP president so their likely won't be a shutdown with a Pence Presidency(Cruz also would not shut down the government under a GOP President because in reality he is part of the establishment who pretends to be an outsider under a Dem Presidency).

Walker and Cruz were the two conventional republicans that attempted to take a somewhat harder line on immigration much to the chagrin of the donors though.

http://web.archive.org/web/20150802000148/bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-21/scott-walker-breaks-with-the-kochs-on-immigration

They were running for President


In Their Actions When they were in power I dont think they take a much harder line on immigration than maybe at best keeping status quo in 2016(not ending DACA, but no Path to Legalization either).



Also I dont think Cruz shuts down the government under a GOP President .

[uti2]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

About a Government shutdown, I don't think it would happen if Trump wasn't President.


The reason for that is Trump was the one who sabotaged the DACA deal at the last minute while virtually any GOP president would not have even removed DACA in the first place.


Also with a unified GOP government, the GOP Donors would put a huge amount of pressure on most congressional Republicans to not shut down the Government under a GOP president so their likely won't be a shutdown with a Pence Presidency(Cruz also would not shut down the government under a GOP President because in reality he is part of the establishment who pretends to be an outsider under a Dem Presidency).

Walker and Cruz were the two conventional republicans that attempted to take a somewhat harder line on immigration much to the chagrin of the donors though.

http://web.archive.org/web/20150802000148/bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-21/scott-walker-breaks-with-the-kochs-on-immigration

They were running for President


In Their Actions When they were in power I dont think they take a much harder line on immigration than maybe at best keeping status quo in 2016(not ending DACA, but no Path to Legalization either).



Also I dont think Cruz shuts down the government under a GOP President .

A State AG or a number of State AGs would've sued the Federal Government over DACA, and ultimately the administration would be forced to address the issue one way or another. They'd have to defend DACA in court if they wanted it to continue.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

About a Government shutdown, I don't think it would happen if Trump wasn't President.


The reason for that is Trump was the one who sabotaged the DACA deal at the last minute while virtually any GOP president would not have even removed DACA in the first place.


Also with a unified GOP government, the GOP Donors would put a huge amount of pressure on most congressional Republicans to not shut down the Government under a GOP president so their likely won't be a shutdown with a Pence Presidency(Cruz also would not shut down the government under a GOP President because in reality he is part of the establishment who pretends to be an outsider under a Dem Presidency).

Walker and Cruz were the two conventional republicans that attempted to take a somewhat harder line on immigration much to the chagrin of the donors though.

http://web.archive.org/web/20150802000148/bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-21/scott-walker-breaks-with-the-kochs-on-immigration

They were running for President


In Their Actions When they were in power I dont think they take a much harder line on immigration than maybe at best keeping status quo in 2016(not ending DACA, but no Path to Legalization either).



Also I dont think Cruz shuts down the government under a GOP President .

A State AG or a number of State AGs would've sued the Federal Government over DACA, and ultimately the administration would be forced to address the issue one way or another. They'd have to defend DACA in court if they wanted it to continue.

Well but you agree that they wouldnt shut down the government under a GOP President like this timeline predicts.

[The_Doctor]

Republican shutdowns are a result of the fact the party is no longer able to unite between warring factions and that's regardless of the President. In other words this isn't just a matter of the candidates. The HFC is a thorn in Paul Ryan's side and was so in John Boehner as well.

The next articles will probably be about 1.) #metoo and the emerging Democratic majority and 2.) the imperial presidencies and expanded executive overreach of Presidents Cordray and Castro.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Part 1: Alex Williams and the 2068 Election

   To say that President Williams was unpopular in January 2068 would be to drastically understate the issue. A year ago, the economic downturn, his personal feud with the Cordray family, stinking allegations of corruption, hurricanes, and a litany of other issues had led to an approval rating of 41-52, driving the Democratic party down to only 215 seats in the house, and to lose their majority in the senate, losing seats in Washington, Montana, Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Virginia, Tennessee, and Florida.
   By 2067, however, his situation had become far worse. The Vice President, The Secretaries of Space, Transportation, and Labor, along with the President’s brother-in-law and daughter, had all been convicted on various charges. The President and his administration were accused of running a ring of corruption that delivered lucrative contracts for the Daedalus project to his personal friends, family, and business associates from his space industry career. The President had a 28-65 approval rating, was polling in the forties for re-election in the democratic primary, and seemed likely to lose in a landslide. Democratic party leaders repeatedly tried to convince Williams not to run for re-election. Finally, on February 17th, Williams dropped out of the Democratic race, agreeing to a private deal with Speaker Bennett, Senate Majority Leader Gonzalez, and the Democratic National Committee. In this, he would be pardoned by the next president for his crimes, in return for which he would not run for re-election and would stay out of the presidential race.
   The Democratic primary field was drastically shaken up by this announcement, with Senator Nayara Bustos, elected back less than two years ago in 2066, immediately rising to the top. Though a few more democrats would jump in, by the date of the primary on March 17th, Bustos’s squeaky clean image, outsider aura, youth, and promises to clean up Washington, lead to her winning a majority, with 52% of the vote, over her nearest opponent, Senate Minority Leader Sean Miller, who managed only 23%. The Republican party, who nominated Governor Ariana Ward, a moderate from Wisconsin held early, and consistent leads in polling. From the date of the national convention in May to November, Ward averaged a 6% lead, at times passing 10%, and never falling below 2%. She seemed almost certain to win, especially given she was rated as the winner of three of the five debates.
   Then, Williams intervened. A minor official from the Department of Justice leaked a report, showing that Ward’s mother, a former house member from Wisconsin, had been subpoenaed before a grand jury and nearly indicted, back in May 2066. The elder Ward died shortly after, in mid 2067. Though the report left out extenuating circumstances, and subsequent evidence cleared the elder Ward, the allegations of corruption in her family dealt a hammer blow to the Republican campaign. Her lead immediately dropped, within a week going from 5.5 points to just 1.2. Though she would start recovering the week before election day, the October surprise seemed poised to deliver a fatal blow to her campaign.

[Frodo]

What is the state of world affairs around 2070?  Would like some context. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Republican shutdowns are a result of the fact the party is no longer able to unite between warring factions and that's regardless of the President. In other words this isn't just a matter of the candidates. The HFC is a thorn in Paul Ryan's side and was so in John Boehner as well.

The next articles will probably be about 1.) #metoo and the emerging Democratic majority and 2.) the imperial presidencies and expanded executive overreach of Presidents Cordray and Castro.

1995-96 Shutdown Policy Wise was a victory for the GOP (though politically a loss). Clinton agreed to cut spending, and sign welfare reform .


2013 Shutdown was due to the GOP last ditch effort to repeal Obamacare before it would get implemented in the last month. Ted Cruz led the shutdown efforts in the Senate and the only reason it worked for so long was the House leadership was behind him until they decided to stop it as well.


the most recent shutdown was not caused by a division in the Republican Party (All the Republicans except Rand Paul and Mike Lee supported keeping it open) , it was caused by Trump blowing up the DACA deal at the last minute and the Democratic filibuster.