Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[Blackacre]

How easy would it be to do Puerto Rico? In a Dem alignment I could see it becoming a state.

Also, why is the Appalachian region of Ohio that much more Republican than the Appalachian region in Kentucky and Tennessee?

[Frodo]

3 states left

edit: 4 states, including the pineapple man's dungeon

I'm almost tempted to say that West Virginia is returning to its traditional Democratic allegiance when I look at eastern Kentucky and Tennessee, but then I see eastern Ohio, western Virginia and Pennsylvania...

[The Govanah Jake]

How easy would it be to do Puerto Rico? In a Dem alignment I could see it becoming a state.

Also, why is the Appalachian region of Ohio that much more Republican than the Appalachian region in Kentucky and Tennessee?

A municipal map of post realignment Puerto Rico would be very interesting.

[GlobeSoc]

How easy would it be to do Puerto Rico? In a Dem alignment I could see it becoming a state.

Also, why is the Appalachian region of Ohio that much more Republican than the Appalachian region in Kentucky and Tennessee?

A municipal map of post realignment Puerto Rico would be very interesting.

I could try, but that would be a week in the future at the earliest. I would also need to look for data and a decent blank map

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

How easy would it be to do Puerto Rico? In a Dem alignment I could see it becoming a state.

Also, why is the Appalachian region of Ohio that much more Republican than the Appalachian region in Kentucky and Tennessee?

A municipal map of post realignment Puerto Rico would be very interesting.

I could try, but that would be a week in the future at the earliest. I would also need to look for data and a decent blank map

Puerto Rico would be beyond Titanium D here. It'd be the poorest state by a decent margin, and unlike WV, AR, or MS, it's overwhelmingly non-white. I'd say it probably have a D+20-25 PVI, and sweeping every municipality would be a given.
https://imgur.com/B40on0E.gif
A few wealthy suburban counties are only likely D, which makes them the most republican places on the island.

[GlobeSoc]

Post your analysis plz

[PoliticalShelter]

What state is has the highest democratic PVI? Looks like it's Mississippi based on your map.

[GlobeSoc]

What state is has the highest democratic PVI? Looks like it's Mississippi based on your map.

[PoliticalShelter]

What would be the closest swing states in this alignment?

Also I'm surprised that Maine still seems to be very democratic. I know that it's one of the poorer Northeastern states, but I would imagine that a more secular culturally northern GOP would do somewhat better.

I mean Gerald Ford did manage to win a majority of the counties in Maine in a close election that he lost (granted he was up against Carter, who was a terrible fit for Maine, but still).

[Blackacre]

Post your analysis plz

Question: Why is the Appalachian region of WV and KY so much more Dem than in Ohio and Pennsylvania? If Ohio's Appalachian region were as Dem as WV, it would be a solidly D state and we'd finally get a GOP candidate win without Ohio. (two of the other 3 states the GOP has never won without, Arizona and Alaska, both look solidly D though)

We're also going to get a reverse of the current Dem meme of "the poorest states vote GOP against their own best interests." Now it's Republicans saying "the poorest areas vote Dem even though Dems are in control and haven't fixed their situation." Unless they did, and these Dem counties are areas that were most helped by policies of a liberal President.

Florida looks like it will always be swingy... or maybe it's the new NC? idk but despite its large hispanic population it didnt join the other Southern or Sunbelt states in their transition.

[ltomlinson31]

The large parts of America left behind by today's economy



Not surprisingly, this map correlates very well with that county map made by Eggman, with the more comfortable and prosperous communities in the North (such as in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut and NJ) shifting more towards the technocratic GOP and distressed areas in the Appalachian areas and the South shifting towards the Cordray Democratic Party after an economic based realignment.

[GlobeSoc]

The large parts of America left behind by today's economy



Not surprisingly, this map correlates very well with that county map made by Eggman, with the more comfortable and prosperous communities in the North (such as in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut and NJ) shifting more towards the technocratic GOP and distressed areas in the Appalachian areas and the South shifting towards the Cordray Democratic Party after an economic based realignment.

Damn, i didnt even intend to create a map that correlated so strongly to that...

[Blackacre]

Because the Crisis in this TL is based on debt, this is relevant:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/28/16378854/mark-walker-deficit

It basically confirms TD's analysis that the GOP doesn't care about debt when in power

[Virginiá]

The Cordray Dems only have a 2/3s Senate majority (and the ability to change the constitution) for two years, and the 2030 midterms actually affect things by giving the GOP the ability to filibuster again.

I would have to believe at this point, the filibuster rules would be altered to make obstruction harder to continue and thus used more sparingly. If Democrats believe they will be in power for a decent amount of time, they will probably feel less constrained in changing the rules. However I suppose what happens with that depends on how hard the GOP fights the new order.

Who's going to be in that base? Groups that might have been receptive to the GOP in the past but are recently turned off by Trump and the evangelical base are a good place to start. Hence, Cuban-Americans as a GOP group.

That's a good point, but to be fair, younger Cubans were never receptive to Republicans to begin with (afaik). In this sense, I feel like the members of this demo the GOP could peal off wouldn't be much different than other Hispanics/minorities - wealthier, more upscale voters of this bloc.

How easy would it be to do Puerto Rico? In a Dem alignment I could see it becoming a state.

This I am very bullish about. Making DC and Puerto Rico a state would have heavy partisan appeal, as it would add 4 more Democratic Senators (assuming PR is reliable in that regard), and it would solve a moral problem, in that Americans lacking proper representation would finally get it. At the very least, DC should be an easy pitch to party leadership. No doubt DC leaders will do that once a major shakeup in Congress occurs. I think the larger the majority is at the time, the more likely it will be, as it will be easier to put together the votes. After all, it would be no different than admitting a state for both of them. Just a bare majority required (aside from cloture). Four new reliably Democratic Senators would be a big deal.

I also wonder about enlarging the House. The population size of each district is only getting bigger, and the House was never really meant to be like this, so I feel like that could have a shot. I imagine it would depend on an analysis of who stands to benefit in the short-term.

[GlobeSoc]

Hopefully next weekend ill be able to start revising the map. Post criticisms and make your case. I have my eye on a few places already, but i want your input.

[Blackacre]

I want to talk about the DC suburbs. Yeah they're wealthy which would mean more Republican support despite their diversity, but they're heavily dependent on nonmilitary public sector work. Since so many people there work for the government, wouldn't any party that calls for a smaller government be anathema to the region?

[America Needs R'hllor]

I've finally got around to reading this, and it's amazing!

[Doimper]

Anyone know what happened to TD?

[Gone to Carolina]

Anyone know what happened to TD?

I think he's avoiding Atlas for some reason or another. He's on pretty active in the discord.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Anyone know what happened to TD?

I think he's avoiding Atlas for some reason or another. He's on pretty active in the discord.

There's an Atlas discord?

[The Govanah Jake]

Anyone know what happened to TD?

I think he's avoiding Atlas for some reason or another. He's on pretty active in the discord.

There's an Atlas discord?

Yea
https://discordapp.com/invite/CSkybsh

[GlobeSoc]

Sorry for being MIA, guys. I had some personal business to work out requiring me to take a sabbatical from Atlas to handle them. Then life kind of happened and I have to deal with full time school, plus a full time job, and a new place and assorted various things. So yeah, I haven't had the time to devote to this as I did in the past.

Maybe next year, I might do more stuff here but right now, I don't really have that much time. I am on Discord, where I annoy Technocratic Timmy unduly and the walrus. I am really proud of what they've done regarding the work in BTM, especially walrus. You guys have done a fantastic job building on BTM.

And yes, I know North Korea has been in the news with increased speculation about a military strike. Yes, I know the timeline predicts Trump to order a military strike on North Korea tomorrow. I'm painfully aware.

I appreciate the overall concern though.

Ayyy

[The Govanah Jake]

Sorry for being MIA, guys. I had some personal business to work out requiring me to take a sabbatical from Atlas to handle them. Then life kind of happened and I have to deal with full time school, plus a full time job, and a new place and assorted various things. So yeah, I haven't had the time to devote to this as I did in the past.

Maybe next year, I might do more stuff here but right now, I don't really have that much time. I am on Discord, where I annoy Technocratic Timmy unduly and the walrus. I am really proud of what they've done regarding the work in BTM, especially walrus. You guys have done a fantastic job building on BTM.

And yes, I know North Korea has been in the news with increased speculation about a military strike. Yes, I know the timeline predicts Trump to order a military strike on North Korea tomorrow. I'm painfully aware.

I appreciate the overall concern though.

Ayyy

The God has returned to us.

[GlobeSoc]

Trump strikes at North Korea Regime; Disables Nuke Program

(October 2017) -- (Washington, D.C.) -- President Donald Trump struck at the North Korean regime in a surprise attack at dawn (Pyonyang time) and disabled the nuclear program that the regime had built. After months of warning and negotiations between the United States and China, the Americans had decided to unilaterally disarm Kim Jong-Un’s nuclear capabilities.

Just in time TD

Do you mean October 2017?

[Deblano]

Trump strikes at North Korea Regime; Disables Nuke Program

(October 2017) -- (Washington, D.C.) -- President Donald Trump struck at the North Korean regime in a surprise attack at dawn (Pyonyang time) and disabled the nuclear program that the regime had built. After months of warning and negotiations between the United States and China, the Americans had decided to unilaterally disarm Kim Jong-Un’s nuclear capabilities.

Just in time TD

Even if we haven't attacked North Korea yet, the fact that TD predicted US-NK tensions being extremely severe during OCTOBER 2017 sent chills down my spine.