Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[The_Doctor]

8:50 PM

Judith: "A major call. In Indiana, we are projecting that Democrat Andre Carson has defeated Sen. Luke Messer in the President's home state to win the Senate seat. This is the first Democratic pickup of the night.

INDIANA - 94% of precincts reporting

Andre Carson (Democratic): 1,390,397 - 51.21% - WINNER
Luke Messer (Republican): 1,295,859 - 47.73%
Others (Independent): 28,922 - 1.07%

Totals: 2,715,177 | Margin: 3.48%

[The_Doctor]

8:59 PM EST

Bill: “We called Arkansas for the Governor and now we’re up with our next round of states. But before we do that, we have two major, major projections. We are projecting that West Virginia will send a Democrat to the U.S. Senate and will send its five electors to the Democratic nominee. That makes Indiana and West Virginia both Democratic Senate pickups”

WEST VIRGINIA - 92% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 353,279 - 50.17% - WINNER
Pence/Haley (Republican): 337,503 - 47.93%
Others (Independent): 13,315 - 1.89%

Totals: 704,097 | Margin: 2.24%.  

WEST VIRGINIA - 92% of precincts reporting

Natalie Tennant (Democratic): 358,433 - 50.50% - WINNER
Evan Jenkins (Republican): 344,119 - 48.48%
Others (Independent): 7,246 - 1.02%

Totals: 709,799 | Margin: 2.02%.  

[The_Doctor]

9:00 PM EST

Bill: “And we have a big round of states to Cordray and Pence. First, Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin to Governor Richard Cordray. And Nebraska to President Pence, with Kansas and Louisiana too close to call.”

Judith: “And that puts the Governor within spitting distance of 270 at the 9:00 hour.  255 for the Governor, 24 for the President, and 58 undecided. We’re waiting from New York --”

Bill: “Hold on. We’re getting numbers from New York. Looks like we’re about to project the Presidency of the United States.”



36% of National Precincts Reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 25,511,092 - 50.27% - 255 electoral votes
Pence/Haley (Republican): 22,821,440 - 44.97% - 24 electoral votes
Others (Independent): 2,415,612 - 4.76%

Totals: 50,748,143 | Margin: 7.72%.  

[The_Doctor]

9:15 PM EST

Bill: "Alright, we have numbers from the state of New York. The state that gave us Franklin Roosevelt and Donald J. Trump now gives us Richard Cordray, 47th President of the United States of America. New York, I repeat, now puts Governor Cordray over the top, with 283 electoral votes, 24 for the President."

["RICHARD ADAMS CORDRAY ELECTED PRESIDENT" banners flashing across the networks now]

[Blackacre]

so VA and GA went for Cordray the instant polls close, but NY took 15 minutes to call? Interesting

Still hype though! Go Cordray!

[The_Doctor]

New York's a very special state.

Small break, since you know who the new president is, then we'll resume and finish this up. Not much suspense here (except the magnitude of the landslide).

[Blackacre]

The map's looking interesting. Appears to be some combination of Clinton 1992 + Clinton 1996 + Obama 2008. Not sure what happened in West Virginia to make it go Democratic, or why Georgia seems to have been won with less than 30% of the vote, or why NE-2 didn't go Dem while the rest of the Obama '08 Crew seems to be coming along for the ride. (Indiana has an excuse, with Pence atop the ticket and all)

Hopefully in the post-election write-up you'll have some kind of explanation for why Cordray basically erased all post-Bill Clinton Republican gains in Appalachia and the South.

[The_Doctor]

Light color - narrow win
Medium - average
Dark - heavy.

I couldn't use the Atlas calculator because I changed the EC values.

[jojoju1998]

8:45 PM EST

Bill: "With Arkansas now called for Democratic Governor Richard Cordray, we have another 6 electoral votes in the bag for him. That brings him to 195. Here's the list of undecided states and where we stand on them. West Virginia is also undecided but we'll have results for that state at 9:00."

KENTUCKY - 84% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 847,259 - 50.50%
Pence/Haley (Republican): 806,615 - 48.08%
Others (Independent): 23,932 - 1.43%

Totals: 1,677,807 | Margin: 2.42%

SOUTH CAROLINA - 64% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 680,448 - 49.28%
Pence/Haley (Republican): 670,847 - 48.59%
Others (Independent): 29,436 - 2.13%

Totals: 1,677,807 | Margin: 2.42%

Can you fix the Vote Totals ? It doesn't seem right.....

[Pericles]

Kentucky for Cordray! South Carolina for Cordray! It's a wipeout!

[Pericles]

Pence is on track to lose even worse than Jimmy Carter.

[Mike Thick]

8:45 PM EST

Bill: "With Arkansas now called for Democratic Governor Richard Cordray, we have another 6 electoral votes in the bag for him. That brings him to 195. Here's the list of undecided states and where we stand on them. West Virginia is also undecided but we'll have results for that state at 9:00."

KENTUCKY - 84% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 847,259 - 50.50%
Pence/Haley (Republican): 806,615 - 48.08%
Others (Independent): 23,932 - 1.43%

Totals: 1,677,807 | Margin: 2.42%

SOUTH CAROLINA - 64% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 680,448 - 49.28%
Pence/Haley (Republican): 670,847 - 48.59%
Others (Independent): 29,436 - 2.13%

Totals: 1,677,807 | Margin: 2.42%

Can you fix the Vote Totals ? It doesn't seem right.....

Considering that not all precincts are reporting, and the turnout is increased significantly from 2016 levels for a number of reasons, I think the totals are pretty reasonable.

[The_Doctor]

9:35 PM EST

Pence Conceding Defeat in Election Aftermath; Congressional Democrats on Track for Major Gains

Election Night 2024 -- (Indianapolis, Indiana) The White House announced that the President would concede to the President-elect in Indiana after New York was projected for Governor Richard Cordray - now President-elect Richard Cordray (D-Ohio). As of this hour, House Democrats had gained a net margin of 35 seats in the lower chamber and had gained two seats in the upper chamber, with additional results yet to come.

Senate Republicans in West Virginia and Indiana have fallen to their Democratic challengers as the white working class has moved towards the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, early results from Texas indicate that Senator Cruz (R-Tex.) is trailing his Democratic rival, as is Sen. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.). And in a stunning potential upset, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) is narrowly leading Democrat Tony Yarber as is Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.).

Exit polling indicates that (subject to fluctuation) that compared the 67-33% margin for Trump in 2016, Pence is winning the white working class by a bare 53-45% margin while college educated whites are breaking Democratic 53-44%. Minorities across the country are breaking 81-14% for the Governor, creating a coalition where the President-elect is winning traditional blue states and making deep inroads in the South, tonight.

The President-elect is expected to declare victory at the governor’s mansion in Columbus at 10 PM as results rolled in from the Midwest and the Interior West.

[The_Doctor]

9:45 PM EST

Bill: "Kentucky now projected for Governor Richard Cordray, with 97% of the precincts reporting. We're putting it up on the map. We repeat, Kentucky and it's 8 electoral votes for Governor Richard Cordray."

KENTUCKY - 97% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 990,168 - 49.66% - WINNER
Pence/Haley (Republican): 959,462 - 48.12%
Independent (Others): 44,264 - 2.22%

Totals: 1,993,895 | Margin: 1.54%

[The_Doctor]

10:00 PM EST

Judith: “At the 10:00 PM hour, we are projecting the following states for the Governor and the President, respectively. Governor Cordray has won the states of Iowa, Montana, Nevada, while the President lays claim to Utah’s five electoral votes.”

Ben: “That puts the President at 30 electoral votes, and the Governor at 303 as of this hour, with 50 electoral votes, mostly from the South, undecided.”

Judith: “We’ll have early results out of Texas, where Governor Cordray and President Pence are locked in a close race for the state’s 42 electoral votes.”

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE - 42% of Precincts Reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 36,284,266 - 53.79% - 308 electoral votes - WINNER
Pence/Haley (Republican): 29,923,220 - 44.36% - 30 electoral votes
Others (Independent): 1,247,925 - 1.85%

Totals: 67,455,411 | Margin: 9.43%

[Gass3268]

Kinda surprised Cordray didn't win the Omaha based CD-2 in Nebraska. Unless they gerrymandered the city.

[The_Doctor]

Kinda surprised Cordray didn't win the Omaha based CD-2 in Nebraska. Unless they gerrymandered the city.

They did IIRC. Trump won it after Obama did.

[The_Doctor]

10:30 PM

Judith: “We’re projecting the state of Wyoming for the President. We kind of missed it in the excitement, but Wyoming is an easy call for the President. Likewise, South Dakota is a call for the President. That brings it to 36 for the President, 308 for the Governor, and 50 left for the undecided states that have closed.”

Ben: “We’re nearing a projection for the state of South Carolina, where Democratic Gov. Richard Cordray is leading by a scant 4,000 votes. But we’re waiting on word from state officials and seeing what precincts remain. But Republican South Carolina may be a shade of Democratic tonight.”

[Gass3268]

Kinda surprised Cordray didn't win the Omaha based CD-2 in Nebraska. Unless they gerrymandered the city.

They did IIRC. Trump won it after Obama did.

They did, but Trump only won it by 2.2%, so I figure in this scenario where Cordray is winning in places like Arkansas and West Virginia, he'd have no trouble winning a district that Trump only by a small margin.

[The_Doctor]

(I'll change NE's electoral vote in the end. Good catch. Just changes Cordray's electoral count by 1 EV so no big deal.)

10:45 PM EST

Ben: “And now Missouri’s United States Senate race is now about to be projected. Democrat Jason Kander has defeated Republican Sen. Ann Wagner, we repeat that former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander will go to the United States Senate, tonight, in the third pickup of the night for the Democratic Party.”

Judith: “Democrats are now projected to win between 271 and 281 seats and as the West Coast comes in, that number may go up.” 

Bill: “And needless to say, with Missouri’s Jason Kander going to the Senate, Richard Cordray has become the first Democrat to carry the Show Me State since Bill Clinton in 1996.”

Missouri - 89% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 1,404,106 - 52.38% - WINNER
Pence/Haley (Republican): 1,244,346 - 46.42%
Others (Independent): 32,033 - 1.20%

Totals: 2,680,484 | Margin: 5.96%

Missouri - 88% of precincts reporting

Jason Kander (Democratic): 1,370,104 - 51.47% - WINNER
Ann Wagner (Republican): 1,239,846 - 46.57%
Others (Independent): 52,101 - 1.96%

Totals: 2,662,051 | Margin: 4.89%.

[The_Doctor]

11:00 PM

Bill: “And as the West Coast finally comes in, we’re now projecting the states of Washington, Oregon, and California. All go Democratic. Idaho stays Republican as does North Dakota and Oklahoma.”

Judith: “And that makes 50 electoral votes for the President, 393 for Governor Cordray, and 50 undecided.”  

[The_Doctor]

11:15 PM EST

Bill: “And the great state of Texas is now coming in. We are now projecting that the Democratic ticket has carried Texas, for the first time since 1976, and Senator Ted Cruz has fallen to Representative Joe Moody, who will now be Texas’s other Democratic Senator. The Democrats are now up to 4 seats gained, and up to 58 seats in the U.S. Senate.”

Judith: “And President-elect Cordray now crosses the 400 electoral threshold.”

Texas - 76% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 3,663,494 - 50.81% - WINNER
Pence/Haley (Republican): 3,441,038 - 47.72%
Others (Independent): 106,070 - 1.47%

Totals: 7,210,602 | Margin: 3.09%

Texas - 75% of precincts reporting

Joe Moody (Democratic): 3,815,304 - 53.55% - WINNER
Ted Cruz (Republican): 3,146,947 - 44.17%
Others (Independent): 162,772 - 2.28%  

Totals: 7,125,024 | Margin: 9.38%

[The_Doctor]

11:30 PM EST

The popular vote and electoral college as they stand...

NATIONAL RESULTS -56% of precincts reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 44,465,343 - 53.90% - 435 electoral votes - WINNER
Pence/Haley (Republican): 36,413,734 - 44.14% - 50 electoral votes
Others (Independent): 1,616,922 - 1.96%

Totals: 82,495,998 | Margin: 9.76%

[The_Doctor]

11:35 PM EST

Bill: Tennessee returns Republican, narrowly, to the tune of 51-47% for the President. The President holds 61 electoral votes. He continues to trail in South Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Kansas, with Alaska and Hawaii's polls yet to be closed."

Tennessee - 84% of precincts reporting

Pence/Haley (Republican): 1,143,763 - 50.75% - WINNER
Cordray/Castro (Democratic): 1,087,648 - 48.26%
Others (Independent): 22,328 - 0.99%

Totals: 2,253,738 | Margin: 2.49%

[The_Doctor]

11:45 PM EST

Judith: "And we have a couple of races to be called for the Democrats. The Democrats have picked up Arizona and Nevada, with Mississippi and North Dakota too close to call. This brings the Senate Democrats to some 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. They're up to 6 pickups in the U.S. Senate."

ARIZONA - 83% of precincts reporting

David Shapiro (Democratic): 1,239,468 - 54.94% - WINNER
Jeff Flake (Republican): 996,026 - 44.15%
Others (Independent): 20,436 - 0.91%

Totals: 2,255,930 | Margin: 10.79% 

NEVADA - 79% of precincts reporting

Aaron Ford (Democratic): 556,230 - 57.96% - WINNER
Dean Heller (Republican): 372,632 - 38.83%
Others (Independent): 30,840 - 3.21%

Totals: 959,702 | Margin: 19.13%