Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[The_Doctor]

China Collapse. Did you take inspiration from Thom Hartmann, who predicts financial problems for China in his book, "The Crash of 2016"?

Nope, I didn't. I read a couple of articles about the Chinese crash. I should look into that book.

[The_Doctor]

This is very good TD. I haven't finished it all yet but most of it (I just started a couple days ago). Keep up the good work!

(ftr there were a few mistakes - eg, VA holds no state senate elections in 2017 besides those special election(s). They do that every 4 years - next time is 2019, and New Mexico Democrats already took back the state house this cycle)

Thank you! And sorry about the errors lol.

[Blackacre]

Yeah, this is easily the best TL in rotation at the moment. Do you intend on going into the presidency of the individual who succeeds Pence or are you going to stop after election night 2024?

[The_Doctor]

Yeah, this is easily the best TL in rotation at the moment. Do you intend on going into the presidency of the individual who succeeds Pence or are you going to stop after election night 2024?

Depends on the public interest. And thank you!

[The_Doctor]

Budget Resolution in Sight; Democrats Back Down for “National Unity” as GOP “compromises”

(Late January 2022) -- (Washington. D.C).  In a string of late night discussions, Congressional Republican and Democratic leaders hammered out a deal that ended the three month government shutdown. The White House hailed the deal as “an end to our national crisis” and the President urged Congress to swiftly pass it.

House and Senate Democratic leaders said that despite their reservations, they would agree to a compromise that would lighten some of the harsh restrictions that the states were expected to enact as part of budget relief. Gone was capping the top marginal state tax rate at 3%, and requirements that debt be paid down every year, while some tax reforms and pension reforms requirements remained. Senate House and GOP leaders, in turn, admitted their membership had decided to back down, with an eye to the November calendar.

The President announced the deal in the East Room of the White House, flanked by the Congressional leadership. Announcing the deal, he hailed it as an “end to the gridlock” and “a new era of cooperation” between Democrats and Republicans. Later, the House passed the deal 404-30 and the Senate passed it 91-6.  

State leaders were more ambivalent, arguing the requirements were still onerous and would not help the long term fiscal picture of their states and was a “short term bailout.” As the economy slid into recession, and state budgets looked even more ominous for 2022, many leaders were calling for Congress to prepare for another round of bailouts.

The President’s approval rating, down to a miserable 30% with 61% disapproving, was causing anxiety among GOP leaders facing the fall midterms.

[Virginiá]

Depends on the public interest. And thank you!

I'd be highly interested in reading that.

[JoshPA]

Next Morning - ELECTION MORNING 2020

Bill: "And we have final results out of Minnesota, Ohio, and New Hampshire. Republican Mike Pence has prevailed narrowly in all of them. In Ohio, he has prevailed by 35,000."

In Maine, Democrat Phil Bartlett has defeated Republican Bruce Polinquin for the Senate seat, bringing the Democratic minority to 46."

Several weeks later, the final numbers:

Pence/Haley (Republican):    69,514,792 - 49.47% - 328 - WINNER
Brown/Malloy (Democratic): 67,140,019 - 47.78%
Others (Independent): 3,864,274 - 2.75%
         
Totals …    140,519,087 | Margin: 1.69%

Hey look it my 2020 prediction!

[The_Doctor]

So far my timeline isn't doing so bad against whats actually happening. This is interesting.

I'll be pretty happy if I nail 65-70% of events, which is what I'm aiming for.

[jojoju1998]

So far my timeline isn't doing so bad against whats actually happening. This is interesting.

I'll be pretty happy if I nail 65-70% of events, which is what I'm aiming for.

If you predict the entire thing right, I am giving you all of my Money......

[Thunderbird is the word]

Pretty close to my own predictions actually (though being on the other side of the aisle i'd rather the 2020 election went differently) but still really enjoying and eagerly anticipating how the future continues to unfold. Good stuff!

[GoTfan]

Well, Pence is imploding.

[The_Doctor]

Bernie "Barry Goldwater" Sanders' Long Game

March 2022 -- (Burlington, Vermont) Bernie Sanders was, in many ways, an unlikely heir to the lineage of William J. Bryan and Barry M. Goldwater. The socialist Senator hailed to the great New Deal Democratic agenda of FDR - a strain of liberalism not present in national politics since Carter left the White House. But in a strange way, his populist brand of socialism was looking like it could merge with the future economic trajectory of the United States, post-crisis.

When Carter left the White House, the idea of an expansive government promising extensive aid to help the working class and being a source of economic growth was derided as part of the failed New Deal Democratic economics that had powered the country between 1932 and 1980. Populist movements sprung up and down but the Reaganite neoliberalism dominated the country’s politics from 1980 to 2021. Every President from Reagan to Michael Pence had embraced a version of neoliberalism as the country’s governing economic ideology. 

The economic crisis of 2008 had brought the anti-globalization discontents to the front and gave a platform to the anti-globalist left (think Sanders) and Right (think Buchanan). The country’s increasing frustration with the failure of neoliberalism had given a platform to men like Bernie Sanders, who had won Michigan’s Democratic primaries. And of course, Donald J. Trump had won the Presidency on that basis. Few remembered the anti-WTO protests of the 2000s (or the protests around China becoming a Most Favored Nation in 2000, for that matter) or the Buchanan protest against President George H.W. Bush. These discontented blue collar voters had long railed against what they viewed as multinational corporations taking away their livelihoods and leaving them impoverished.

The years after the 2016 election showed how strong the grip of neoliberalism was, though. And how, one might argue, essential to the current paradigm it was. Major corporations relied on chains of supply that were global to deliver cheap goods to their customers - and these supply chains were often in China, Mexico, or India. President Trump’s economic nationalism ran headlong into the prevailing neoliberal establishment and never recovered. The Republican strategy to neoliberalism had been to limit immigration and to hope for a tighter labor market to grow wages (and by extension, the economy) and to challenge low wage countries like China to shape up. They had renegotiated trade deals to be a little more friendly to the American worker in the hopes that it would spur economic growth. And to an extent it did. Had there been no major automation trend, this strategy might have worked.

But the reality was that automation was replacing offshoring as the next great trend of globalization. Factory jobs were being lost more and more to automation, not Mexico or China getting these jobs. As computers and technology advanced, they were replacing menial tasks. For example, self-driving trucks, while not on the roads, were increasingly moving from a fictitious to a realistic prospect. The Democrats had woke up to this reality after their loss to Donald Trump (although it was vastly less quick than they had hoped for but still very much present).

Enter Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign of universal college education, a higher minimum wage to recoup some of the rewards from major corporations, universal healthcare coverage, and regulating Wall Street to finance Main Street. A lot of this would have been foolhardy in the 1980s; but it made some economic sense to the 2020s and 2030s.  However, all of these made sense for developed nations that had the economic resources to reconfigure their economies and resource allocations to serve their middle and working classes, who faced the biggest threats from automation. To encourage economic growth to speed up, the middle and working class also needed help with healthcare and education coverage, ergo, the Sanders’ platform was increasingly sounding like a viable path forward in the 2020s.

On climate change, Bernie Sanders’ unbridled support for a carbon tax and aggressive climate change posture was vastly more aggressive than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and now as climate change became a pressing issue in the upcoming elections of 2024, the Bernie Sanders posture looked very much like the Democratic Party’s posture. With the country and the world finally recognizing global warming as a threat (unlike the 1980s), the Sanders position seemed far more pragmatic than if Carter had promoted it.

The weak Democratic Left that had been vigorous in its defense in the 1980s had been slowly growing stronger as the neoliberal hegemony weakened and showed cracks. The movement had been smothered under Clinton, halted by Obama, but finally was finding its voice and growing into a position of power within the Democratic Party that hadn't been seen in generations.

Left unresolved for the Democratic Party, as the Republicans imploded under Pence, was how they would handle globalization. For all intents and purposes, globalization was a trend that could not be reversed without great damage and risk. The essential question for the Democratic Party was to how to balance their ascendant populism with the global economy. That would be a question left to the next Democratic Presidency.
 
Unlike Goldwater, the old Vermonter was an avid ideologue who sought to incorporate his views into the Democratic Party via friendly takeover rather than the hostile 1964 nomination capture and simmering civil war that exploded in 1976. Start with his campaign; he had done it to shift the party to the left and then embraced Hillary Clinton, campaigning for her fulsomely. When Trump won, he shifted into the position of the loyal opposition and fought a quiet battle to redefine the Democratic Party.

Sanders constantly dominated social media, the news, and kept tabs on the up and coming Democrats in the Party that would be in a position to advance his agenda. He was closely involved in the 2018 and 2020 elections, campaigning for Democrats up and down the ticket (and building political capital) and influencing primaries to help more liberal candidates to prevail over their more moderate colleagues.  His intervention on behalf of Senator Sherrod Brown had helped him clinch the nomination over the more moderate Governor Andrew Cuomo - a pointed intervention that allowed him to put a new imprimatur on the Democratic Party.

Bernie had one grand goal: realignment. By which he did not mean a political realignment but an economic realignment powered by the Democratic Party. He intended for the Democratic Party to be in a position, when it returned to power, to cement itself as the party of the working class and to institute a new set of economic institutions to empower that working and middle class. He himself would never become President, but Bernie simply wanted to end the neoliberal consensus that had dominated the political conversation and to reorient the government towards an updated New Deal that created economic prosperity.

Like Goldwater and Bryan, his ideas would be under fire for his time. And like them, they wouldn’t be adopted in their original form. Roosevelt and Reagan had adapted and modified the platforms set forth by Bryan and Goldwater to fit their times (for example, Reagan never took an axe to Medicare as Goldwater might have wanted. And Roosevelt never touched the gold standard officially as Bryan wanted and went beyond Bryan’s vision in many areas). But Bernie’s ideas would be the nucleus for the Democratic Party’s platform going into the 2022 and 2024 elections.

And now with the crisis forcing an economic recession, as the Republican Party splintered and imploding, the great debate that was coming into center stage was the 2024 Democratic Presidential nomination and the direction the Democratic Party would take. Would the neoliberals win one last time? Or would Bernie Sanders finally find the Ronald Reagan that would inaugurate a new revolution? Or would there be a third combination?

44 years after Ronald Reagan’s 1980 victory, which had been 48 years after Franklin Roosevelt’s own, the country was moving into pole position for another change. The 47th Presidency of the United States was coming into view. And what that change would be anyone’s guess, but if Bernie had his way, it would be a revolution.

[Frodo]

Wouldn't Bernie Sanders be 83 by that point?  He would be older  than Reagan was when he took office by more than a decade.  I mean he's older than my dad by a couple of months.

He's only going to serve a single term, if that.  His age will catch up to him.  Which makes it imperative that we know who his running-mate is.

[The_Doctor]

Wouldn't Bernie Sanders be 83 by that point?  He would be older  than Reagan was when he took office by more than a decade.  I mean he's older than my dad by a couple of months.

He's only going to serve a single term, if that.  His age will catch up to him.  Which makes it imperative that we know who his running-mate is.

It won't be Bernie. Bernie's kind of the Moses of this story.

[The_Doctor]

Note: I’m waiting on a few articles from Ted, God of the West. So I decided to talk a bit about the coalitions. This is a bit of a 2030s talk actually, which borders on insane, ridiculous, and whatnot, but why the heck not? This is a “the GOP’s route back to power in 2036” type deal. If I’m wrong, go complain to me in 2032-2036.

As the great Teddy White once remarked, wave elections overwhelm everything, and then when they recede, they leave new patterns in their wake. Since 2024 will feature the break up and reconfiguration of two great coalitions, this is my guess how it all looks in 2036. (Yes, the Democrats will have 3 terms of the White House in this timeline).

I’m well aware that this is a bit jarring to the liberals who are wealthy wine track Democrats, to think that in 20 years they might be voting Republican and working class Republicans might find it jarring in 20 years that they might be voting Democratic. At this point, we’re just seeing faint hints that could go either way.  This is worth a debate, some feedback is welcome.

The election of 2024 will - given its importance - will have 50 state results. So you can ponder this article with that one.

Democrats Becoming Party of South (+Southwest) while GOP Adopts “Northern Strategy”

April 2022 -- (Austin, Texas) As the parties deal with the crisis, laying underneath the fault lines was a changing geographic alignment that would have surprised anyone who had watched the 2000s and the 2010s. The Republicans were slowly adopting the “Northern Strategy” while the Democratic strength was moving steadily southwards, to the New South and the Sunbelt, with a possible assist from the Midwest. While the Southern states, rural areas of the Midwest, and the Interior West still held sway in the GOP, their grip was lessening (the GOP had foreshadowed their Northern realignment by nominating a Massachusetts Governor and a New York City businessman in the 2010s). Meanwhile, the Democrats had come close to winning Arizona and Georgia in 2016.

To be sure, the faint hints were clear in 2022 for the GOP and the DNC, alike. The Democratic Party, in 2022, still ruled on the coastal areas and Illinois. The Reaganite coalition still centered itself in the South, the Interior West, and the Midwest. And it would take a few more Presidential elections to shake out the coming coalitions and their geographic situations.

President Pence had carried Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, and cut Rhode Island’s Democratic margin further still from 2016. (Rhode Island was (52-43% Democratic in 2020). There was an inkling that northern whites were breaking for the Republican Party and as the GOP slowly moved away from divisive social issues they were finding common ground with economic issues. Analysts had noted that the trends began in 2016 and were accelerating in 2020. It was anyone’s guess if the Crisis would stop that in its tracks or if it would resume post-Crisis. What stopped the Northern strategy from being an effective reality was that the social conservative and populist nationalists moorings of the Republican Party stopped rich urban voters from switching allegiances. That, yet, could change in the future.

The Democrats were demonstrating strength in the minority heavy-South and Southwest, meaning the stretch of states from Virginia to California were slowly moving (or were already) in the Democratic camp. Either Sherrod Brown or Clinton had carried these states or come close to, demonstrating the growing power of the Latino and African American bloc (and in California, the Asian bloc). In 2024, the Democrats were poised to marry the old Democratic strongholds of the 2000s and the 2010s with the new South and Sunbelt, but after that, who knew?

The coalitions were slowly resorting themselves into a historical pattern in a sense. The Democrats were coming home to their Jeffersonian-Jacksonian lineage with the Bernie Sanders wing dominance - the working class great Democratic majorities of the first half of the 19th century and the 20th century. This Democratic majority could be rooted in the Sunbelt and married to working class voters of all races, rather than the wine track Democrats that had had considerable influence in the party since 1992.  Think of the border counties of Texas voting Democratic and then aligning with predominantly working class counties in the state to make Texas as as Democratic state.

The GOP was lagging behind but thoughtful analysts noted that the Northern Strategy would be more effective if wealthy urban voters no longer had to contend with the GOP’s social conservatism rooted in the South and the Interior West. Like Bill Clinton capturing New England liberals, by allowing them to vote their liberal conscience for a “New Democrat,” the GOP could run a candidate who would give urban voters permission to break from the Democratic Party. Particularly, liberal upper scale voters who could vote GOP without dealing with the social baggage. Counties like the rich collar counties in Illinois who had voted Democratic because of their horror at the GOP’s social baggage could go back to voting GOP, under a new configuration. Think of the counties around Philadelphia resuming their Republican loyalties and voting GOP, aligning with richer counties out in West Pennsylvania, to deliver the state to the GOP.

Some things would stay constant, in a sense. The Democrats, by no means, would abandon being a multicultural party that was split between various races and were predominantly urban. They would carry Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Chicago, New York, and the urban areas. The GOP, for that matter, would continue to be popular in rural counties, while the suburbs would be fought over. The difference, going forward, would be that the Democrats might be a little weaker in the great cities while the GOP ceded some working class rural voters to gain some strength in the suburbs and the cities. 

Time would tell if this would hold true or if the future would continue to surprise us.

[Mike Thick]

Yeah, I'm writing up the 2022 midterms. They should be finished and posted tonight.

[Pericles]

Republicans are unpopular and defending a lot of seats,  I expect a big GOP loss.

[Mike Thick]

Ugh, a fundraising event I had to present at ran like an hour and a half later than I had planned for and I didn't have time to finish up. Things should be posted tomorrow, though

[The_Doctor]

Ugh, a fundraising event I had to present at ran like an hour and a half later than I had planned for and I didn't have time to finish up. Things should be posted tomorrow, though

No worries, man. Thank you for this. Take your time.

[Mike Thick]

Fall Portends Brutal Midterms

(September 2022) The GOP is preparing for a brutal midterm election in the fall as Republican incumbents are bracing for a difficult election cycle.

In the Senate, the ‘16 GOP victors are up for re-election again. That included Sens. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Ia.), Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), and John McCain (R-Ariz.) are retiring. On the Democratic side, only Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Michael Bennett (D-Colo) are running again for re-election from a swing state.  In the House, it is estimated that about 65 House Republicans are “vulnerable,” while only 10 House Democrats are vulnerable. 

In the gubernatorial sweepstakes, the governorships of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, Colorado, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Texas are among the big battleground states. Of these, the GOP holds New Hampshire, Arizona, and Texas, while the Democrats held the rest. Greg Abbott (R-Tex.) is retiring, while Chris Sununu is seeking a third two-year term in New Hampshire. Tom Wolf is also termed out in Pennsylvania. The rest are first term Democratic governors seeking re-election.

Polling shows that, on a generic congressional ballot, 49% of voters currently plan to vote for the Democrats, while about 40% plan to vote for Republicans. 3% plan to vote third party, while the rest are undecided.

"Things are looking good for us this cycle," said DCCC Chair and Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton. "There are a lot of blue-collar voters in the Midwest and the South who have tried out Republicans, but seen wage stagnation, economic decline, and gridlock despite a unified Republican Government. They're ready to try something new."

Primaries on both sides have showcased this desire for change. In Arizona, State Treasurer Jeff DeWit crushed Congresswoman Martha McSally, widely considered the favorite for the nomination and a rising star in the Republican party, to win the Republican nomination for John McCain's Senate seat. State Senator and anti-establishment stalwart Scott Wagner has secured the Republican nod to seek Pennsylvania's Governorship. And Van Taylor, a firebrand Congressman who was famously derided by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy as "certifiable," defeated political scion George P. Bush to take the Texas Gubernatorial nomination after a close and bitter primary runoff. Democratic candidates like Arizona Senatorial nominee and former Rep. Ruben Gallego, Darren Soto (the Democratic opposition to Marco Rubio in Florida) and Cincinnati Mayor and Ohio Senatorial candidate Yvette Simpson.

Republicans had better brace themselves -- 2022 is going to be a bumpy ride.

[rpryor03]

Bennet is retiring in 2022.

[PMHub]

Looking forward to the 2022 election results!

By the way, the guy from the prologue who succeeds Pence, what are they up to right now?

[The_Doctor]

Looking forward to the 2022 election results!

By the way, the guy from the prologue who succeeds Pence, what are they up to right now?

You'll see in 2023.

[Mike Thick]

BLUE CRUSH: Democrats Make Massive Midterm Gains

Democrats swept the 2022 midterm elections in a stunning rebuke of President Mike Pence, House Speaker Paul Ryan, and the increasingly unpopular Republican Party.

As it stands, Democrats have gained seven seats in the U.S. Senate, defeating Republicans in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Florida. The Senate race in Ohio remains too close to call, with Cincinnati Mayor Yvette Simpson leading incumbent Rob Portman by seventy-eight votes at press time. Democrats also gained forty-four seats in the House of Representatives, taking back the Chamber from Republicans for the first time in twelve years by a comfortable 239-196 margin. Three races have yet to be called.

Democrats also made major gains in Gubernatorial races, taking the governorships of Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas. Hundreds of State Legislature seats were also picked up by Democrats, flipping nearly a dozen chambers..

Governor-elect Rafael Anchia of Texas won a hotly contested election over controversial Republican Congressman Van Taylor, who gained national notoriety for his vocal opposition to President Pence’s debt deal, to win back the state’s top executive office for the first time in nearly thirty years.

“I think that people are finally waking up,” said Anchia, the Minority Leader of the State Senate. “There are millions of voters out there, old, young, male and female, brown and black and white, who are finally seeing that they’ve been swindled. This state has seen Republican rule for nearly thirty years, this country for almost six. Congress has been Republican for eight. And things haven’t improved for Americans -- wages are stagnant, the economy is slow, you have massive debt crises all over the country. People are tired of being lied to and told that things will get better if they just keep voting for Republicans.”

Indeed, it seemed like people are unhappy with the status quo after years of Republican governance. In exit polls conducted immediately after the election, Pence's approvals ranged from the low thirties to the high twenties, while a commanding majority disapproved. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell didn't fare much better, with the margins barely thinner but lower overall name recognition.

President Pence has announced a meeting with likely House Speaker Tim Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Patty Murray the day after tomorrow. However, it is clear that his position has been weakened even further, and the next two years are not looking pretty for Republicans.

[Cynthia]

BLUE CRUSH: Democrats Make Massive Midterm Gains

Democrats swept the 2022 midterm elections in a stunning rebuke of President Mike Pence, House Speaker Paul Ryan, and the increasingly unpopular Republican Party.

As it stands, Democrats have gained seven seats in the U.S. Senate, defeating Republicans in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Florida. The Senate race in Ohio remains too close to call, with Cincinnati Mayor Yvette Simpson leading incumbent Rob Portman by seventy-eight votes at press time. Democrats also gained forty-four seats in the House of Representatives, taking back the Chamber from Republicans for the first time in twelve years by a comfortable 239-196 margin. Three races have yet to be called.

Democrats also made major gains in Gubernatorial races, taking the governorships of Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas. Hundreds of State Legislature seats were also picked up by Democrats, flipping nearly a dozen chambers..

Governor-elect Rafael Anchia of Texas won a hotly contested election over controversial Republican Congressman Van Taylor, who gained national notoriety for his vocal opposition to President Pence’s debt deal, to win back the state’s top executive office for the first time in nearly thirty years.

“I think that people are finally waking up,” said Anchia, the Minority Leader of the State Senate. “There are millions of voters out there, old, young, male and female, brown and black and white, who are finally seeing that they’ve been swindled. This state has seen Republican rule for nearly thirty years, this country for almost six. Congress has been Republican for eight. And things haven’t improved for Americans -- wages are stagnant, the economy is slow, you have massive debt crises all over the country. People are tired of being lied to and told that things will get better if they just keep voting for Republicans.”

Indeed, it seemed like people are unhappy with the status quo after years of Republican governance. In exit polls conducted immediately after the election, Pence's approvals ranged from the low thirties to the high twenties, while a commanding majority disapproved. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell didn't fare much better, with the margins barely thinner but lower overall name recognition.

President Pence has announced a meeting with likely House Speaker Tim Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Patty Murray the day after tomorrow. However, it is clear that his position has been weakened even further, and the next two years are not looking pretty for Republicans.

Where's Jason Kander?