Sanoturm/Guiliani ticket - who can beat them if Santorum wins PA

[Keystone Phil]

1.  I never said Swann, or Castor would be broke.  What I said is the fundraising gap between Rendell & Swann or Rendell & castor would be larger than the gap between Santorum & hafer.

They'd do better than you think.

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Hafer isn't exactly Ms. Personality, Smash. I love how you are also saying this from New York. How many times have you heard her speak? How would you know that she's stronger than Klink? And, actually, Klink was a good speaker. He was a TV reporter before going to Congress! (See, that's what happens when you know something, Smash. You make a good point!)

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Social security is always an issue here, Smash but never as big as the Democrats would like.

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Wrong. Social security was, yet again, an issue in 2004. Bush did very well out west as did conservative Republican candidates.

 

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No way! I thought you saying it sixteen times meant it would be a smaller than usual issue.


 

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Your reasoning for things is so poor. I really do feel bad sometimes. Read over Jake's post. Maybe you'll realize something.

[Smash255]

1.  I never said Swann, or Castor would be broke.  What I said is the fundraising gap between Rendell & Swann or Rendell & castor would be larger than the gap between Santorum & hafer.

They'd do better than you think.

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Hafer isn't exactly Ms. Personality, Smash. I love how you are also saying this from New York. How many times have you heard her speak? How would you know that she's stronger than Klink? And, actually, Klink was a good speaker. He was a TV reporter before going to Congress! (See, that's what happens when you know something, Smash. You make a good point!)

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Social security is always an issue here, Smash but never as big as the Democrats would like.

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Wrong. Social security was, yet again, an issue in 2004. Bush did very well out west as did conservative Republican candidates.

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No way! I thought you saying it sixteen times meant it would be a smaller than usual issue.


 

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Your reasoning for things is so poor. I really do feel bad sometimes. Read over Jake's post. Maybe you'll realize something.

I do have family in Delaware County,  in part basing it off what I have heard from them.  They basically compared him to Gore, someone who first appeared to have perssonality (as gore did during the 92 camapaign) but when you got to know the real him could tell that he was a real bore.

Yes, social security is also an issue & was in 2004, but the spport for the plan is something which has seen vast differences over the last few months once more of Bush's plan has come out.  For example during the election season Bush's approvalon social security tended to be in the lowe 40's with disapproval in the upper 40's to low 50's.  Basically a net disapproval of 7-12%, may have had a slight impact, but not much for Bush.  Now his approval on social security is down in the lower 30's with disapproval in low to in some polls mid 60's, withnet disapproval rates around 30% or so, in some cases triple the net disapproval from election time.  Those close to Bush (as Santorum sis who really support this are going to be hurt more by it in 06 if the strong disapproval to Bush's handling of Social Scurity continues than it impacted Bush & those close to him in 04, simply because the net disapproval is so much more stark now than it was last year

[TeePee4Prez]

We all saw how accurate you were with PA-13....

Flyers was worried about a Brown win, too, early on and actually was off when it came down to how much Schwartz would win by. You can't judge my analysis of PA as a whole by PA 13. You are just flat out clueless when it comes to this. You make things up and think it's good analysis of the state. Basically, you're a more annoying BRTD.

Where to begin?  Yes, I was worried about a Brown win after Hoeffel's near loss in 2002, but I realized the local numbers were much more in favor of the Democrats nationally in 2004.  You can't say it was just Rendell that helped Hoeffel.  I know the GOP has some pull at the city and state level in Northeast Philly, but surely not at the national level and I'm not just talking about the Presidency.  I may also add Arlen Specter only won 6 out of 14 wards in NE Philly against Hoeffel while Bush won NONE!  Specter even won my moderately liberal 56th Ward.  Not impressive especially considering how well the GOP did here in the 1980s, which IHMO was phenomenal relative to today.  I think Santorum would perform at best against a Joe Hoeffel or Barb Hafer 2 wards in NE Philly being the 55th and 64th.  NE Philly is a bellweather, leaning slightly more Dem than the state at large.  I also recall Rick Santorum winning every suburban Philadelphia county as well.  Do you honestly think he could win Montgomery or Delaware after Bush got his ass trounced in both of them?  I also think Hoeffel/Hafer could pull off Bucks and maybe even Chester with Rendell on top of the ticket as well.  I realize Santorum would gain over Klink out west with a candidate such as Hoeffel, not Hafer.  Where is the population growth in PA Phil?  You guessed it right- the Southeast!  Do you also recall how far Klink was down in the polls just days before the 2000 election?  Try 20 points.  He was written off quite early.  I hate to repeat myself, but how did Debbie Stabenow beat the supposedly popular Spencer Abraham in Michigan.  Remember, Michigan very closely resembles Pennsylvania in political geography.  Stabenow down 17 up to 4 weeks before the election.  EMILY's List comes in= GAME OVER FOR SPENCER ABRAHAM!       

[Keystone Phil]

We all saw how accurate you were with PA-13....

Flyers was worried about a Brown win, too, early on and actually was off when it came down to how much Schwartz would win by. You can't judge my analysis of PA as a whole by PA 13. You are just flat out clueless when it comes to this. You make things up and think it's good analysis of the state. Basically, you're a more annoying BRTD.

Where to begin?  Yes, I was worried about a Brown win after Hoeffel's near loss in 2002, but I realized the local numbers were much more in favor of the Democrats nationally in 2004.  You can't say it was just Rendell that helped Hoeffel.  I know the GOP has some pull at the city and state level in Northeast Philly, but surely not at the national level and I'm not just talking about the Presidency.  I may also add Arlen Specter only won 6 out of 14 wards in NE Philly against Hoeffel while Bush won NONE!  Specter even won my moderately liberal 56th Ward.  Not impressive especially considering how well the GOP did here in the 1980s, which IHMO was phenomenal relative to today.  I think Santorum would perform at best against a Joe Hoeffel or Barb Hafer 2 wards in NE Philly being the 55th and 64th.  NE Philly is a bellweather, leaning slightly more Dem than the state at large.  I also recall Rick Santorum winning every suburban Philadelphia county as well.  Do you honestly think he could win Montgomery or Delaware after Bush got his ass trounced in both of them?  I also think Hoeffel/Hafer could pull off Bucks and maybe even Chester with Rendell on top of the ticket as well.  I realize Santorum would gain over Klink out west with a candidate such as Hoeffel, not Hafer.  Where is the population growth in PA Phil?  You guessed it right- the Southeast!  Do you also recall how far Klink was down in the polls just days before the 2000 election?  Try 20 points.  He was written off quite early.  I hate to repeat myself, but how did Debbie Stabenow beat the supposedly popular Spencer Abraham in Michigan.  Remember, Michigan very closely resembles Pennsylvania in political geography.  Stabenow down 17 up to 4 weeks before the election.  EMILY's List comes in= GAME OVER FOR SPENCER ABRAHAM!       

When did I ever say Santorum would win Montco or Delco? I said he'd lose both but his margins elsewhere (there is more to the state, Flyers) would mean a comfortable win.

EMILY's List doesn't work here statewide, pal! Get over it!

[Smash255]

We all saw how accurate you were with PA-13....

Flyers was worried about a Brown win, too, early on and actually was off when it came down to how much Schwartz would win by. You can't judge my analysis of PA as a whole by PA 13. You are just flat out clueless when it comes to this. You make things up and think it's good analysis of the state. Basically, you're a more annoying BRTD.

Where to begin?  Yes, I was worried about a Brown win after Hoeffel's near loss in 2002, but I realized the local numbers were much more in favor of the Democrats nationally in 2004.  You can't say it was just Rendell that helped Hoeffel.  I know the GOP has some pull at the city and state level in Northeast Philly, but surely not at the national level and I'm not just talking about the Presidency.  I may also add Arlen Specter only won 6 out of 14 wards in NE Philly against Hoeffel while Bush won NONE!  Specter even won my moderately liberal 56th Ward.  Not impressive especially considering how well the GOP did here in the 1980s, which IHMO was phenomenal relative to today.  I think Santorum would perform at best against a Joe Hoeffel or Barb Hafer 2 wards in NE Philly being the 55th and 64th.  NE Philly is a bellweather, leaning slightly more Dem than the state at large.  I also recall Rick Santorum winning every suburban Philadelphia county as well.  Do you honestly think he could win Montgomery or Delaware after Bush got his ass trounced in both of them?  I also think Hoeffel/Hafer could pull off Bucks and maybe even Chester with Rendell on top of the ticket as well.  I realize Santorum would gain over Klink out west with a candidate such as Hoeffel, not Hafer.  Where is the population growth in PA Phil?  You guessed it right- the Southeast!  Do you also recall how far Klink was down in the polls just days before the 2000 election?  Try 20 points.  He was written off quite early.  I hate to repeat myself, but how did Debbie Stabenow beat the supposedly popular Spencer Abraham in Michigan.  Remember, Michigan very closely resembles Pennsylvania in political geography.  Stabenow down 17 up to 4 weeks before the election.  EMILY's List comes in= GAME OVER FOR SPENCER ABRAHAM!       

When did I ever say Santorum would win Montco or Delco? I said he'd lose both but his margins elsewhere (there is more to the state, Flyers) would mean a comfortable win.

EMILY's List doesn't work here statewide, pal! Get over it!

Would he win against hafer?  probably, but it will be by a smaller margin than 2000.  He could gain in other parts of the state over his 2000 #'s, but that gain in other portions of the state would be less than the differencial from 2000 in the SE portion of the state.

[Inmate Trump]

The thought of Santorum as president...shudder.

I don't like Hillary either, but I might just vote for her over him.  The lesser of two evils, and all that...

Giuliani would be great, but I still wouldn't vote for Santorum if Rudy was on the ticket with him.


ANYWAY--I can see Hillary winning Ohio, Nevada and others if Santorum was the Republican candidate.  Florida might be a toss-up again though.