2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread**

[Mr. Morden]

Poll closing times are listed here:

https://ballotpedia.org/State_Poll_Opening_and_Closing_Times_(2016)
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G16/closing.phtml?format=gc

First polls close in parts of IN and KY at 6pm Eastern, and we may start getting some results from those states shortly thereafter, but the networks won't call either state or post the topline exit poll #s until 7pm Eastern, when the rest of the polls close in those two states.

In addition to discussing election night results, this thread will also be used for discussing the exit polls, including exit poll leaks.  Because of the post-2004 exit polling reforms, the media themselves don't have access to any exit poll #s until 5pm Eastern.  Any supposed exit poll leaks you read before 5pm are certainly fake.  After 5pm, stuff will leak.  And we'll start getting AP stories about what the exit polls say about who voted.

AP results: http://interactives.ap.org/2016/general-election/?SITE=WHBQTVELN&DEFAULTGEO=TRUE
CNN results: http://www.cnn.com/election/results

[Mr. Morden]

First exits are released at 6 EST right?

No.  The media is given access to the exit polls at 5pm Eastern, and then they start producing stories about them about 10 or 15 minutes later.  Though those stories are about "X% of voters think they're better off than 4 years ago" or "Y% are Evangelicals", etc.  The toplines don't come out until the polls have closed in a given state.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN exit poll info: Very few late deciders in this election.

[Mr. Morden]

Most important candidate quality (per CNN):

can bring change 38
right experience 22
good judgment 22
cares about me 15

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/NickBarnets/status/796112758156693504

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[Mr. Morden]

Unfavorability #s:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-2016-national-exit-poll-results-analysis/story?id=43368675

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[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/796113605624266754

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[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/796115010997063680

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Uhhh….that adds up to over 100%. 

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/election-day-2016-latest-news-945224

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http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/08/politics/first-exit-polls-2016/

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[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/796116691793100800

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[Mr. Morden]

Racial makeup, per CNN TV:

white 70
black 12
latino 11
asian 4
other race 3

[Mr. Morden]

More from CNN:

Are you voting for your candidate or against other candidates?:

strongly favor their candidate 42%
have reservations 31%
dislike opponents 25%

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/KendallBreitman/status/796116169912709122

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[Mr. Morden]

From MSNBC:

blacks:
Clinton 87%
Trump 8%
other 5%

latinos:
Clinton 65%
Trump 27%
other 8%

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Significant "other" vote. Nice.

Yeah, if the 3rd party numbers for whites at least match what they are for blacks, then at least the 3rd party vote is higher than Nader-esque levels, which is what some folks here were predicting.

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-2016-national-exit-poll-results-analysis/story?id=43368675

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[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

white college grads:
Trump 47
Clinton 46
other 7

white non-college grads:
Trump 65
Clinton 29
other 6

[Mr. Morden]

From MSNBC:

Ideological breakdown:
moderates 39
conservatives 35
liberals 27

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

GA exit looks surprisingly close!

Men 57-38 Trump
Women 54-41 Clinton

But 55% of the electorate is women, so...

Where are you guys finding the exit polls?  I don't see them.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I found the exit poll #s on NBC:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/GA
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/VA

Virginia exit poll toplines (if my math is right):
Clinton 51%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%

Georgia exit poll toplines (if my math is right):
Trump 48%
Clinton 46.5%
Johnson 3.5%