2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread**

[Fusionmunster]

Has it really been over a year since Hillary announced?

Why yes, yes it has. And I've felt every minute of it.

[Fusionmunster]

Some person is saying on the TYT youtube liveshow (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ) that they saw some of the early exits and they showed close races in Colorado and New Hampshire (and I think one more state?), and Trump up in Florida and North Carolina.

*clap*

[Fusionmunster]

Again... remembering that early exits are garbage.

K?

Nope, prepare to panic.

[Fusionmunster]

This exit polls dont help at all.

[Fusionmunster]

7% late deciders is not that small number. Not at all, actually

And apparently alot of them chose Jonhson so...

[Fusionmunster]

From MSNBC:

blacks:
Clinton 87%
Trump 8%
other 5%

latinos:
Clinton 65%
Trump 27%
other 8%

It'll get adjusted up with California.

[Fusionmunster]

There early exit polls because they dont include the west coast, right?

[Fusionmunster]

The race make ups of early exits are always off, always. Happened in the primary, happened in 2012 and its happening now.

[Fusionmunster]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

I'd make a bet that by the end of the night, here Hispanic number will not be lower than Obamas when the exit polls get adjusted.

[Fusionmunster]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

I'd make a bet that by the end of the night, here Hispanic number will not be lower than Obamas when the exit polls get adjusted.

Probably, but he seems at least not doing much worse that Romney.
And relatively good with Black??

Your going to be disappointed.

[Fusionmunster]

Some rumblings from Latino Decisions that they didn't exit poll in Spanish.

I swear...

[Fusionmunster]

 Ok, I'm going out on a limb and saying that all those who were predicting a Clinton landslide in early October were wrong.

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but as a Clinton supporter I'm feeling pretty confident.

[Fusionmunster]

Party ID comparison (vs 2012)
Dem 37 (-1)
Independent 31 (+2)
Republican 32 (-)


So far the electorate looks
More Liberal (+2)
More Independent (+2)
More non-white (+2)

So, it is probably a wash, which puts us at a 3-4 point race. 2 if Dumpster overperforms... 5 if Hillary does.

Maybe not, as we've seen from the early vote a lot of Hispanics are registering as independents and non-affiliated.