2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread**

[Eraserhead]

Significant "other" vote. Nice.

[Ebsy]

The exits are trash as usual I see.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Via Steve Kornacki:

Early national exit:

Whites w/ college degree
Trump +1
2012: Romney +14

Whites w/out college degree
Trump +36
2012: Romney +26

Wow! Terrific number for Trump, if black vote is down.

How?

Whites with = -13 from 2012
Whites without = +10
net = -3

There is 60% more voting non-educ then col-edu IIRC. And non-educ are concenrated more heavily in battleground states.

[JerryArkansas]

There early exit polls because they dont include the west coast, right?

They are early because voting is still open in all states, so no late voters included, and they will get revised as results start to come in.

[Wiz in Wis]

Big if true:

While exit polls are not the best at measuring the racial composition of the electorate, it does seem that minority turnout is way up in Florida. In the preliminary exit polls, 39 percent of voters were people of color. That compares to just 33 percent in 2012. -Harry Enten

[Mr. Morden]

[Dr. Arch]

Has there been any information on college educated whites yet?

Trump 65% Clinton 29%

Those are non-college.

[Angrie]

It will be hilarious if the GOP base starts believing that Trump appealed to African Americans and Hispanics based on these exit polls, and then think they can keep doing the same thing, and then shoot themselves in the foot further in the future.

[Wiz in Wis]

Has there been any information on college educated whites yet?

Trump 65% Clinton 29%

That's the non-college white numbers

[Yank2133]

Has there been any information on college educated whites yet?

Trump 65% Clinton 29%

That is non-college educated whites.

It is +1 for Trump, which is down from +14 from Mitt in 2012.

[Fusionmunster]

The race make ups of early exits are always off, always. Happened in the primary, happened in 2012 and its happening now.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

There early exit polls because they dont include the west coast, right?

Do you know how early exit polls looked in 2012?

[heatcharger]

Hopefully this yields a 7 point Clinton win.

[Mr. Morden]

Significant "other" vote. Nice.

Yeah, if the 3rd party numbers for whites at least match what they are for blacks, then at least the 3rd party vote is higher than Nader-esque levels, which is what some folks here were predicting.

[Higgs]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

[Gass3268]

Big if true:

While exit polls are not the best at measuring the racial composition of the electorate, it does seem that minority turnout is way up in Florida. In the preliminary exit polls, 39 percent of voters were people of color. That compares to just 33 percent in 2012. -Harry Enten

This would jive with on the ground reports.

[Fargobison]

White College Women (GOP margin)
1980: +9
1988: +6
1992: +0
1996: -4
2000: -5
2004: +1
2008: -7
2012: +6
2016: -8

[Fusionmunster]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

I'd make a bet that by the end of the night, here Hispanic number will not be lower than Obamas when the exit polls get adjusted.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Exit-polls are very strange.

Trump is doing better marginwise among blacks, hispanics, and likely whites 

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-2016-national-exit-poll-results-analysis/story?id=43368675

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

I'd make a bet that by the end of the night, here Hispanic number will not be lower than Obamas when the exit polls get adjusted.

Probably, but he seems at least not doing much worse that Romney.
And relatively good with Black??

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I forget- do we see some IN/KY stuff at 5 CT, even if they can't call them for an hour?

[Angrie]

So using the numbers that have been released on vote by race and vote by education for whites, I tried to extrapolate out the exit poll top line. I had to fill in a few blanks not released, but what I got was:

Clinton 47.6
Trump 45.9

To come out with that, the things I had to fill in were the proportion of College educated to non-college educated whites out of the 70% of the electorate that is supposedly white. So I assumed the same proportions as in 2012 (57% of white voters were non-college educated and 43% of them were college educated).

Also since no numbers for Asian and Other voters Clinton-Trump split were released, I assumed they split the same 65%-27% in favor of Clinton that the exit polls have for Latinos.

[Dr. Arch]

Exit-polls are very strange.

Trump is doing better marginwise among blacks, hispanics, and likely whites 

You're in for a disappointment. Exit polls are off racially initially, always. These also don't include the West, which is a huge chunk of the Hispanic population.

[Wiz in Wis]

NBC News Exit Poll: Clinton won white college-educated women voters nationwide, taking 51 percent to Trump's 43 percent.