Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Wiz in Wis]

Is CLinton +2 in Colorado now, good news or bad news for her?

The GOP had a 7 point lead in the early vote in 2014 and split the Senate/Gov races. Both were tight. So, this is a 9 point shift from 2014 to Clinton, all else being equal.

Also, the GOP had a slight edge in registered voters who voted early (less than 1%), so this would mean that NPA is leaning Dem a smidge, if their model is right, which is very much in doubt.

[Mr. Morden]

Is CLinton +2 in Colorado now, good news or bad news for her?

About in line with projections from e.g. 538. A bit better for Trump than them, but that is countered by the fact that the additional votes that come in are more likely than not to be a bit more Dem leaning.

Better for Trump than the 538 projection, but still consistent with a (narrow) national lead for Clinton.

[win win]

Nobody knows how reliable these slate projections are.

[The Other Castro]

Nobody knows how reliable these slate projections are.

And that is the first correct thing you've said in a while.

[bilaps]

Is CLinton +2 in Colorado now, good news or bad news for her?

The GOP had a 7 point lead in the early vote in 2014 and split the Senate/Gov races. Both were tight. So, this is a 9 point shift from 2014 to Clinton, all else being equal.

Also, the GOP had a slight edge in registered voters who voted early (less than 1%), so this would mean that NPA is leaning Dem a smidge, if their model is right, which is very much in doubt.

Did GOP had a 7 point lead in the early VOTE or PARTY ID? Huge difference.

[Gass3268]

Question for clarification, this is there current projection based off the vote that was turned in before Election Day? This does not include what they think Election Day turnout, which historically is pretty Democratic, correct?

[The Other Castro]

Question for clarification, this is there current projection based off the vote that was turned in before Election Day? This does not include what they think Election Day turnout, which historically is pretty Democratic, correct?

I think that is correct, yes.

[Absolution9]

If these are accurate at the very least it puts to bed any chance that Trump is going to get crushed.

[muon2]

I think that this model is inaccurate. They know only turnout and project results based on pre-election polling. In real exit polls they ask voters after they vote, and here they don't aske anyone about anything. This makes no sense to me.

This is the model that big campaigns have used for years, and one of the consultants on this project is Obama's former director of microtargeting. That was a very successful electoral forecast model. It's also the model used by networks to make state calls. Exit polls are less accurate in general since their sample size is smaller than this method.

Exit polls cannot be less accurate because they interview people after voting, and only real voters, not likely one.

This model is also based on real voters. The CO Secretary of State identifies everyone who voted by name and location in their database, just not who they voted for. The statistics are huge. It's better than a small sample of exit voters where you know who they voted for.

I agree. But I have a question, is there some sort of margin of error like in the polls?

Of course there's an MoE like any other sampling technique. There's a component based on the model analytics and a component based on the sample size. Polls that weight their sample based on demographics are relying on the same sort of analytics as this model so that factor is going to be comparable, and unfortunately its never reported with the poll results. The sample size in most polls is around 1000 which gives the 3-4% MoE that is reported. Here the sample size is more than a hundred times larger and 1000 times larger n the case of CO. That puts the MoE from sample size at a few tenths of a percent.

[bilaps]

I think we'll get big updates in 5min from other states

[Angrie]

Nobody knows how reliable these slate projections are.

Wrong. They are pretty damn reliable. And certainly much more so than other things we will see later like exit polls.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Florida, Clinton + 102k
2016 Early Vote: 3,685,667 early votes, 41.8 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 1,780,573 early votes, 42.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 1,678,848 early votes, 40.3 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Results: Obama won, 50.0 percent to 49.1 percent


Iowa, Clinton +29k
2016 Early Vote: 563,444 early votes, 35.6 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 273,188 early votes, 33.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 244,739 early votes, 33.5 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.1 percent to 46.5 percent


Nevada, Clinton +7k
2016 Early Vote: 593,964 early votes, 58.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 276,461 early votes, 52.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 269,255 early votes, 58.1 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.3 percent to 45.7 percent


Ohio Clinton+53K
2016 Early Vote: 1,320,559 early votes, 23.7 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 632,433 early votes, 22.4 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 579,916 early votes, 21.8 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 50.1 percent to 48.2 percent


Pennsylvania, Trump + 14k
2016 Early Vote: 199,167 early votes, 3.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 85,367 early votes, 2.8 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 99,286 early votes, 3.7 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.0 percent to 46.8 percent


Wisconsin, Clinton +70k
2016 Early Vote: 560,455 early votes, 18.3 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 295,302 early votes, 18.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 225,281 early votes, 16.0 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Obama won, 52.8 percent to 46.1 percent

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Tie in EV in Nevada?

Clinton +7K in NV

[The Other Castro]

It's kind of irresponsible for them to list the 2012 results as if they're direct comparisons.

[The Free North]

Source for those figures??

[Devout Centrist]

Trump's leading in EV in Nevada?

Weird sh** going on.

But no he doesn't, they just have him overperforming Mittens.

[Ronnie]

If I'm reading those early voting projections correctly...oh dear god.

[RJEvans]

If I'm reading those early voting projections correctly...oh dear god.

I know right. They look absolutely terrifying for Clinton. Worse yet, there is really no way to compare to 2012.

[Devout Centrist]

If I'm reading those early voting projections correctly...oh dear god.

Why?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump's leading in EV in Nevada?

Weird sh** going on.

But no he doesn't, they just have him overperforming Mittens.

Yeah, sorry.

[The Free North]

If I'm reading those early voting projections correctly...oh dear god.

I know right. They look absolutely terrifying for Clinton. Worse yet, there is really no way to compare to 2012.

Does anyone have 2012 EV data?

[Horus]

It's kind of irresponsible for them to list the 2012 results as if they're direct comparisons.

[PeteB]

Florida, Clinton + 102k
2016 Early Vote: 3,685,667 early votes, 41.8 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 1,780,573 early votes, 42.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 1,678,848 early votes, 40.3 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Results: Obama won, 50.0 percent to 49.1 percent


Iowa, Clinton +29k
2016 Early Vote: 563,444 early votes, 35.6 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 273,188 early votes, 33.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 244,739 early votes, 33.5 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.1 percent to 46.5 percent


Nevada, Clinton +7k
2016 Early Vote: 593,964 early votes, 58.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 276,461 early votes, 52.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 269,255 early votes, 58.1 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.3 percent to 45.7 percent


Ohio Clinton+53K
2016 Early Vote: 1,320,559 early votes, 23.7 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 632,433 early votes, 22.4 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 579,916 early votes, 21.8 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 50.1 percent to 48.2 percent


Pennsylvania, Trump + 14k
2016 Early Vote: 199,167 early votes, 3.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 85,367 early votes, 2.8 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 99,286 early votes, 3.7 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.0 percent to 46.8 percent


Wisconsin, Clinton +70k
2016 Early Vote: 560,455 early votes, 18.3 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 295,302 early votes, 18.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 225,281 early votes, 16.0 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Obama won, 52.8 percent to 46.1 percent

So Trump is leading PA?

[Absolution9]

Are these just for early vote or absentee and early vote?  Numbers look kinda small to include both?

[Devout Centrist]

Florida, Clinton + 102k
2016 Early Vote: 3,685,667 early votes, 41.8 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 1,780,573 early votes, 42.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 1,678,848 early votes, 40.3 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Results: Obama won, 50.0 percent to 49.1 percent


Iowa, Clinton +29k
2016 Early Vote: 563,444 early votes, 35.6 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 273,188 early votes, 33.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 244,739 early votes, 33.5 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.1 percent to 46.5 percent


Nevada, Clinton +7k
2016 Early Vote: 593,964 early votes, 58.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 276,461 early votes, 52.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 269,255 early votes, 58.1 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.3 percent to 45.7 percent


Ohio Clinton+53K
2016 Early Vote: 1,320,559 early votes, 23.7 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton: 632,433 early votes, 22.4 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 579,916 early votes, 21.8 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 50.1 percent to 48.2 percent


Pennsylvania, Trump + 14k
2016 Early Vote: 199,167 early votes, 3.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 85,367 early votes, 2.8 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 99,286 early votes, 3.7 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012: Obama won, 52.0 percent to 46.8 percent


Wisconsin, Clinton +70k
2016 Early Vote: 560,455 early votes, 18.3 percent of total votes cast in 2012
Clinton 295,302 early votes, 18.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total
Trump: 225,281 early votes, 16.0 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total
2012 Obama won, 52.8 percent to 46.1 percent

So Trump is leading PA?

Mind you PA is strict about having an excuse to vote early.