Quinnipiac: Clinton +2 in NC, +1 in FL

[Erich Maria Remarque]

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Compared to ther last polls OCT. 27-NOV. 1

Florida: unchaged
NC:       +1 towards Trump




Florida
White 64%
Black 14
Hispanic 16
Other/DK/NA 6


NC
White 67%
Black 20
Hispanic 6
Other/DK/NA 7


Two way:
Florida: TIE
NC:       C+3


Early Voters:
Florda: C+4  (Rubio +2)
NC:      +12

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I actually think those numbers are semi-bad for Clinton. Was hoping for better. Quinnipiacs last numbers were better for her and her numbers with early voters in Florida doesn't look as good as hoped.

What the heck are you talking about?

1) The number are slightly worse than Q's numbers for those two states in early november, even though there is the perception that Clinton has had a slight rebound.

2) The early vote lead in Florida is MoE stuff. We were already expecting Clinton to outpace Trump during early voting, the question was more whether she could get a big enough cushion before election day.

By the way according to QU Trump takes 10% of D vs Clinton 7 of Reps.

It is self-reported though, but one can get a clue


And among early voters:
Presideent DK/NA 6%
Senate      DK/NA 4%
2% that say who they voted in senate, doesn't say whom the they voted for in president race

[Erich Maria Remarque]

And you're right, this poll has a lower EV lead for Clinton than several other Florida polls.

But I guess the upside is that if they are under-predicting her EV lead, then she'll have an even bigger overall lead than she does now...

Which means that that poll has a lower ED lead for Trump than several other Florida polls.

But I guess the upside is that if they are under-predicting his ED lead, then he'll have an even bigger overall lead than he does now...

It works both ways, you know

[Erich Maria Remarque]

But surely you see the advantage of Clinton having votes banked and going into Election Day already having a lead?

 
Yes, it is true.
But on other hand if Clinton was so good on turning in "unlikely" voters, she'd grow in polls, right? That's not what we seen so far; polls on average shows the same picture as before/at the start of EV, Trump's probably even gained a bit.

Except national polls. They are bringing are very dark news for Trump. And I am the one who relies more heavily on national polls trends

And I'm actually very worried that after today's Clinton +4-7, some Reps won't turn up + polls missing Hispanics

Especially when she's the one with the better ground game than Trump?

My opinion has always been that ground-game is
a) highly overrated
b) partly backed-in in polls (specially when so many EV:ed)

Clinton's best asset has always been Trump (females and Hispanics).