Latino Decisions Final Poll: Clinton 76, Trump 14

[dspNY]

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/1514/7839/2130/Wk8_Full_Tracker.pdf

[sobo]

Great honer!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Something seems odd about this, especially compared to Latino results in other polls.  Is there any chance they are pushing people or doing something else to produce unusually extreme numbers?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

14% Trump seems low, tbh.  The number of ultra-nationalist Latinos who aren't bothered by the characterization of illegal immigrants as being rapists and murderers is higher than most people realize.

Ain't a lot of them, but they are out there.

These are terrible numbers for Trump if they are to be believed.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

WOW,

All those hispanics coming out in nevada, florida, Co and nation wide at record levels is going to have a real impact. Trump screwed up attacking them.

[Mehmentum]

Something seems odd about this, especially compared to Latino results in other polls.  Is there any chance they are pushing people or doing something else to produce unusually extreme numbers?

They interview in Spanish and English.  Many pollsters do not.  In 2012, polls showed a similar gap and dual language pollsters were more accurate.

[Silent Hunter]

Those are awful numbers for Trump and I think he will lose FL and NV at least because of them.

[ag]

We will learn soon, whether it is them or the other pollsters that got this right.  Clearly, there is a methodological difference.

[Devout Centrist]

Game over.

[afleitch]

Outside the white bubble of 'both as bad as each other' angst, Latinos actually like Clinton. Her favourables are high. These figures might be a tad high when it comes down to it, but they are not unexpected.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wow! Clinton +62

Their last poll showed in 2012 showed Obam +49
http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/5913/5204/1319/Tracker_-_toplines_week_11.pdf

[Antonio the Sixth]

CRUSHING

[hopper]

Outside the white bubble of 'both as bad as each other' angst, Latinos actually like Clinton. Her favourables are high. These figures might be a tad high when it comes down to it, but they are not unexpected.

No not really a Pew Poll 2 weeks ago said 48% of Latino Voters who were under 35 were voting against Trump rather than voting for Clinton. It was the opposite for Latino's over 35 who were voting for Hillary and not against Trump.

[IceSpear]

Something seems odd about this, especially compared to Latino results in other polls.  Is there any chance they are pushing people or doing something else to produce unusually extreme numbers?

They were right in 2012 and the other polls were wrong. Not surprising since many of the other polls have tiny samples with huge MoEs whereas this is a dedicated survey specifically for Hispanics.

[Person Man]

Wow! Clinton +62

Their last poll showed in 2012 showed Obam +49
http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/5913/5204/1319/Tracker_-_toplines_week_11.pdf

So that probably nets her 2% extra of the vote and if AAs are down like 10%, that is 1% less for her. The ethnic change in vote probably gives her a boost of 1% in total. To make up the rest, Trump will probably have to get like 63-65% of the white vote to win unless there are millions of missing "ethic voters".

[hopper]

14% Trump seems low, tbh.  The number of ultra-nationalist Latinos who aren't bothered by the characterization of illegal immigrants as being rapists and murderers is higher than most people realize.

Ain't a lot of them, but they are out there.

These are terrible numbers for Trump if they are to be believed.

The Latinos(14%) that are voting for Trump knew it was strategy just to get Trumps base "amped up"(rape and drug dealer language) and nothing more.

[psychprofessor]

This is why national polls missed Obama's margin in 2012 and why they are missing Hillary's margin in 2016. Look at that one Marist or Fox poll from the other day that had her at 49 with Latino's. Any national poll that has her under 70 with Latino's is under-representing her top line. I actually think the Latino breakdown will be 77-19 and African American 90-5.

[OneJ]

Awesome! Especially considering they are the most accurate.

Where will the other 10 will go? 4% for Hillary?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wow! Clinton +62

Their last poll showed in 2012 showed Obam +49
http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/5913/5204/1319/Tracker_-_toplines_week_11.pdf

So that probably nets her 2% extra of the vote and if AAs are down like 10%, that is 1% less for her. The ethnic change in vote probably gives her a boost of 1% in total. To make up the rest, Trump will probably have to get like 63-65% of the white vote to win unless there are millions of missing "ethic voters".

Yeah, but big share of Hispanics are in those place that is pretty non-competive.
Only in NV and FL, but in FL they are pretty R. NV might be gone.

This is why national polls missed Obama's margin in 2012 and why they are missing Hillary's margin in 2016. Look at that one Marist or Fox poll from the other day that had her at 49 with Latino's. Any national poll that has her under 70 with Latino's is under-representing her top line. I actually think the Latino breakdown will be 77-19 and African American 90-5.

Yeah, it might be the case. Before 08'/12' hispanics has smaller share and/or were not that Democratic. But now they are > Blacks and break heavily towards Dems.

04' Kerry    +9        8%  of the electorate   
08' Obama +36       9%
12' Obama +44       10%
16' Clinton +60?      14%?

So both share and skewing to D is growing... Poor Trump

[hopper]

Wow! Clinton +62

Their last poll showed in 2012 showed Obam +49
http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/5913/5204/1319/Tracker_-_toplines_week_11.pdf

So that probably nets her 2% extra of the vote and if AAs are down like 10%, that is 1% less for her. The ethnic change in vote probably gives her a boost of 1% in total. To make up the rest, Trump will probably have to get like 63-65% of the white vote to win unless there are millions of missing "ethic voters".

Yeah, but big share of Hispanics are in those place that is pretty non-competive.
Only in NV and FL, but in FL they are pretty R. NV might be gone.

This is why national polls missed Obama's margin in 2012 and why they are missing Hillary's margin in 2016. Look at that one Marist or Fox poll from the other day that had her at 49 with Latino's. Any national poll that has her under 70 with Latino's is under-representing her top line. I actually think the Latino breakdown will be 77-19 and African American 90-5.

Yeah, it might be the case. Before 08'/12' hispanics has smaller share and/or were not that Democratic. But now they are > Blacks and break heavily towards Dems.

04' Kerry    +9        8%  of the electorate   
08' Obama +36       9%
12' Obama +44       10%
16' Clinton +60?      14%?

So both share and skewing to D is growing... Poor Trump

No during Bush W's two terms up to 2006 Latinos were more likely to skew "a little  more independent" than Dem than before or after 2006 according to Pew Research Data on Latino Party Affiliation.

I don't think Latinos will make up 14% of the 2016 electorate maybe 11-12% of the overall electorate I think.

[Green Line]

It's pronounced LatinX

[Hydera]

But thats impossible!!! Trump said the latinos LOVE him!!!

[MasterJedi]

"And there's your dagger!"

[Desroko]

Something seems odd about this, especially compared to Latino results in other polls.  Is there any chance they are pushing people or doing something else to produce unusually extreme numbers?

Not everybody calls cell phones, polls in Spanish, or uses voter/registration files.

[Ebsy]

Everyone said that what Latino Decisions found for Mitt Romney in 2012 was too low, then election day rolled around and it turned out to be accurate.