NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)

[politicallefty]

Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.

[politicallefty]

Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.

Breaking 60% will be a close call mostly because Johnson+Stein+write-ins will probably = 4 or 5%.

You might be right. I may be a bit overconfident with that claim, but I think Trump will end up in Romney or Bush 2000 territory (34-36% statewide). He might get Staten Island, but the remaining four boroughs are going to be some of the most hideous results for Republicans on record. I think the main four will swing to Hillary over 2012, with Hillary getting above 80% in Queens and possibly close to 90% in Brooklyn. If someone like Dov Hikind has denounced Trump (of course, his lunacy would never lead him personally to Clinton), I expect the Hasidic areas to swing back to Clinton. If she gets Borough Park and the like, she's going to get a record number out of NYC, regardless of how Staten Island goes. To be perfectly honestly, I can't help but wonder if Manhattan goes above 90% for Hillary. I wonder if there are that many sane Republicans there to make that happen. After all, Trump lost his own back yard of Manhattan to John Kasich.

[politicallefty]

Hmm, the swings in NYC should be interesting. I'm thinking Staten Island will swing HARD to Trump and Manhattan will swing pretty hard to Clinton.

I also think Queens probably swings to Trump but I'm not too sure about what'll happen with The Bronx and Brooklyn (many competing factors at play in them).

I do expect Trump to be considerably stronger upstate than Romney as well.

I think it's interesting that we disagree on Queens. (Yeah, I didn't mention The Bronx, but mostly because I don't think Hillary can squeeze any more votes out of there than Obama did in 2012.)

How do you see each borough voting in terms of margins? I do share your view that Trump will easily win Staten Island. I just don't see him making gains anywhere else in NYC, and I think the swing against him in Manhattan will far override any gains he gets in Staten Island and then some.