Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.
I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.
Breaking 60% will be a close call mostly because Johnson+Stein+write-ins will probably = 4 or 5%.
You might be right. I may be a bit overconfident with that claim, but I think Trump will end up in Romney or Bush 2000 territory (34-36% statewide). He might get Staten Island, but the remaining four boroughs are going to be some of the most hideous results for Republicans on record. I think the main four will swing to Hillary over 2012, with Hillary getting above 80% in Queens and possibly close to 90% in Brooklyn. If someone like Dov Hikind has denounced Trump (of course, his lunacy would never lead him personally to Clinton), I expect the Hasidic areas to swing back to Clinton. If she gets Borough Park and the like, she's going to get a record number out of NYC, regardless of how Staten Island goes. To be perfectly honestly, I can't help but wonder if Manhattan goes above 90% for Hillary. I wonder if there are that many sane Republicans there to make that happen. After all, Trump lost his own back yard of Manhattan to John Kasich.
Hmm, the swings in NYC should be interesting. I'm thinking Staten Island will swing HARD to Trump and Manhattan will swing pretty hard to Clinton.
I also think Queens probably swings to Trump but I'm not too sure about what'll happen with The Bronx and Brooklyn (many competing factors at play in them).
I do expect Trump to be considerably stronger upstate than Romney as well.
I would bet good money that Brooklyn goes toward Trump at least a bit. The Italian/Greek and Russian Jewish southern part will swing toward Trump while the rest of it is already maxed out for the Dems.
I also think Trump only takes a 20 point loss in NYS (versus 26.5 for Romney). NYC will be roughly even with swings by certain groups in opposite directions. LI will be way more pro Trump. Westchester/Rockland will be about even. Trump does way better in Upstate. Romney lost Erie/Monroe/Onondaga/Albany counties by a combined 19/20 points, Trump will be under by only 10-15 points and he does better in the other upstate counties as well.
