POLITICO/Morning Consult - Clinton +3

[jaichind]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/politico-morning-consult-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-230818


Clinton    45
Trump     42
Johnson    8
Stein        4

[President Johnson]

The Johnson/Stein numbers are way too high.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The Johnson/Stein numbers are way too high.

[jaichind]

The Johnson/Stein numbers are way too high.

Yep.  Net net should slightly benefit Trump in the final tactical voting analysis assuming it will end up being something like Johnson 4 Stein 2 but not enough to overcome a 3 point Clinton lead.

[President Johnson]

The Johnson/Stein numbers are way too high.

Yep.  Net net should slightly benefit Trump in the final tactical voting analysis assuming it will end up being something like Johnson 4 Stein 2 but not enough to overcome a 3 point Clinton lead.

Yep. Though 1% for Stein is more realistic. Johnson at 4% looks about right.

[The Daily Beagle]

I think this is about right.

[jaichind]

This poll has been consistently Clinton +6 during pro-Clinton news cycles and Clinton +3 during pro-Trump or neutral news cycles the entire time.

[Eraserhead]

This poll hardly ever changes.

[dspNY]

This poll has been consistently Clinton +6 during pro-Clinton news cycles and Clinton +3 during pro-Trump or neutral news cycles the entire time.

I think that's actually accurate, to tell you the truth

[IceSpear]

This poll hardly ever changes.

Same with the YouGov national.  They have both returned Clinton +3 almost continuously since June.

I'd prefer that to CNN, which flips from Trump +5 to Clinton +10 whenever one of them farts too loud.

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 87%
Trump 8%
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%

GOP
Trump 85%
Clinton 9%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 39%
Clinton 32%
Johnson 17%
Stein 10%

People who support Clinton in the 2-way matchup:
Clinton 93%
Johnson 4%
Stein 3%
Trump 0%

People who support Trump in the 2-way matchup:
Trump 94%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%
Clinton 1%
(Gotta love that 1% who switch between Clinton and Trump depending on whether you include 3rd parties.)

men: Trump +1
women: Clinton +6
income under $50k: Clinton +5
income $50-100k: Trump +3
income over $100k: Clinton +10
whites: Trump +10
blacks: Clinton +69
Hispanics: Clinton +34
urban: Clinton +29
suburban: Clinton/Trump tie
rural: Trump +19
Midwest: Trump +1
Northeast: Clinton +17
South: Trump +10
West: Clinton +18

So another poll with Clinton leading by more (albeit barely more) in the West than the Northeast, and another one with Trump doing better among those making $50-100k than those making over $100k.  This one even has the rich as Clinton’s strongest income group.

[Devout Centrist]

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[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav %:
Pence 43/36% for +7%
Kaine 34/36% for -2%
Clinton 42/56% for -14%
Johnson 21/35% for -14%
Trump 37/61% for -24%

[God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams]

fav/unfav %:
Pence 43/36% for +7%
Kaine 34/36% for -2%
Clinton 42/56% for -14%
Johnson 21/35% for -14%
Trump 37/61% for -24%

How in the world does an utter dick like Pence get favorable ratings? That boggles my mind.

[IceSpear]

fav/unfav %:
Pence 43/36% for +7%
Kaine 34/36% for -2%
Clinton 42/56% for -14%
Johnson 21/35% for -14%
Trump 37/61% for -24%

How in the world does an utter dick like Pence get favorable ratings? That boggles my mind.

Dems didn't bother to demonize him since literally nobody cares. Meanwhile, Republicans successfully demonize anyone with a (D) next to their name (muhhhhh likable Kaine!) Same would've happened with Biden/Sanders or Jesus Christ (D).

[Green Line]

fav/unfav %:
Pence 43/36% for +7%
Kaine 34/36% for -2%
Clinton 42/56% for -14%
Johnson 21/35% for -14%
Trump 37/61% for -24%

How in the world does an utter dick like Pence get favorable ratings? That boggles my mind.

Dems didn't bother to demonize him since literally nobody cares. Meanwhile, Republicans successfully demonize anyone with a (D) next to their name (muhhhhh likable Kaine!) Same would've happened with Biden/Sanders or Jesus Christ (D).

Republicans didn't need to demonize Kaine.  For anyone watching the VP debate, he did a good job of that all by himself.

[BlueSwan]

fav/unfav %:
Pence 43/36% for +7%
Kaine 34/36% for -2%
Clinton 42/56% for -14%
Johnson 21/35% for -14%
Trump 37/61% for -24%

Yeah, I personally despise Pence even more than Trump, even though I acknowledge that Pence wouldn't be a threat to the survival of western civilization, which Trump is.
How in the world does an utter dick like Pence get favorable ratings? That boggles my mind.

[Simfan34]

 

The Johnson/Stein numbers are way too high.

Yep.  Net net should slightly benefit Trump in the final tactical voting analysis assuming it will end up being something like Johnson 4 Stein 2 but not enough to overcome a 3 point Clinton lead.

Yep. Though 1% for Stein is more realistic. Johnson at 4% looks about right.

Stein will be lucky to get over 1%, hopefully she won't get even half that.