CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

We may not get winners in either state until the day after the election.

What did the last CBS/yougov polls of OH and FL have?

OH Clinton +4      OCT. 5-7
FL  Clinton +3    OCT. 21-22

[alomas]

What did the last CBS/yougov polls of OH and FL have?

Clinton +4 in Ohio, taken 10/5-10/7 so just before the infamous video of Trump's comments
Clinton +3 in Florida, taken 10/20-10/21

[Buzz]

These are good polls for Trump

[Classic Conservative]

They have always had horrible numbers for Trump in Ohio. Wasn't it like Clinton +7 on Labor Day Weekend.

[Tender Branson]

I don't think OH will be that close in the end: Trump+4 or something.

FL on the other hand will be extremely tight.

[Ozymandias]

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/

FLORIDA

Of the 63% (748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 51
Trump - 41

OHIO

Of the 19% (226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 63
Trump - 33

This continues a pattern of Clinton dominating the early vote in most polls.

[BlueSwan]

We may not get winners in either state until the day after the election.

What did the last CBS/yougov polls of OH and FL have?

OH Clinton +4      OCT. 5-7
FL  Clinton +3    OCT. 21-22

So this is actually a pretty terrible result for Clinton.

[BlueSwan]

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/

FLORIDA

Of the 63% (748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 51
Trump - 41

OHIO

Of the 19% (226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 63
Trump - 33

On the other hand, those numbers look awesome for Clinton.

[Arch]

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/

FLORIDA

Of the 63% (748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 51
Trump - 41

OHIO

Of the 19% (226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 63
Trump - 33

On the other hand, those numbers look awesome for Clinton.

Right-o

[Tender Branson]

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/

FLORIDA

Of the 63% (748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 51
Trump - 41

OHIO

Of the 19% (226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 63
Trump - 33

On the other hand, those numbers look awesome for Clinton.

Maybe, or maybe not.

The topline trend in both states favours Trump:

[Absolution9]

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/

FLORIDA

Of the 63% (748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 51
Trump - 41

OHIO

Of the 19% (226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 63
Trump - 33

On the other hand, those numbers look awesome for Clinton.

Right-o

What's weird in a lot of these early vote polls is that they are implying huge third party numbers, way more than I expected.  Does it make sense to you that 8% of early voters in Florida are casting third party ballots?  I would have thought that almost all third party votes would be election day ones and that there would be way less than 8%.  This isn't the first poll that has shown this.

[politicallefty]

Maybe, or maybe not.

The topline trend in both states favours Trump:

Compared to when? It looks like Ohio was last polled a month ago and Florida at least a week or two or so ago.

[Brittain33]

The topline trend in both states favours Trump:

Extrapolating momentum isn't really a thing, Tender.

[Ozymandias]

What's weird in a lot of these early vote polls is that they are implying huge third party numbers, way more than I expected.  Does it make sense to you that 8% of early voters in Florida are casting third party ballots?  I would have thought that almost all third party votes would be election day ones and that there would be way less than 8%.  This isn't the first poll that has shown this.

I don't think the missing 8% is all 3rd party vote-- what I've noticed while compiling all the early voting poll results is that very often a few percent won't say who they voted for (listed as "unsure", "none", etc.)

Now why these early voting non-respondents are still kept in the poll instead of being thrown out, I have no idea...

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK, can someone help me please? After the Comey letter there have been 8 Florida polls.
Clinton led 6 of them, Trump 1 and one was tied.
 How could it be possible that Nate Silver's model gives Trump as the favorite?

[IceSpear]

OK, can someone help me please? After the Comey letter there have been 8 Florida polls.
Clinton led 6 of them, Trump 1 and one was tied.
 How could it be possible that Nate Silver's model gives Trump as the favorite?

Because Nate is a joke?

[politicallefty]

OK, can someone help me please? After the Comey letter there have been 8 Florida polls.
Clinton led 6 of them, Trump 1 and one was tied.
 How could it be possible that Nate Silver's model gives Trump as the favorite?

Because Nate is a joke?

Yeah, it's a comfy job if you can get it. It's like being a meteorologist. You'll get it right 80-90% of the time, but sometimes you're wildly wrong. When you're wrong, you just chalk it up to chance and save your job. No one ever calls for the weatherman's head when he gets it wrong.