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February 28, 2021, 08:42:54 AM
Talk Elections
Election Archive
Election Archive
2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
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Topic: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL) (Read 6264 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #25 on:
November 06, 2016, 10:31:04 AM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 06, 2016, 10:28:13 AM
Quote from: Eraserhead on November 06, 2016, 10:15:38 AM
We may not get winners in either state until the day after the election.
What did the last CBS/yougov polls of OH and FL have?
OH Clinton +4 OCT. 5-7
FL Clinton +3 OCT. 21-22
Logged
alomas
Rookie
Posts: 239
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #26 on:
November 06, 2016, 10:32:14 AM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 06, 2016, 10:28:13 AM
What did the last CBS/yougov polls of OH and FL have?
Clinton +4 in Ohio, taken 10/5-10/7 so just before the infamous video of Trump's comments
Clinton +3 in Florida, taken 10/20-10/21
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,038
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #27 on:
November 06, 2016, 10:44:41 AM »
These are good polls for Trump
Logged
Classic Conservative
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,647
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #28 on:
November 06, 2016, 10:50:32 AM »
They have always had horrible numbers for Trump in Ohio. Wasn't it like Clinton +7 on Labor Day Weekend.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,417
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #29 on:
November 06, 2016, 10:52:18 AM »
I don't think OH will be that close in the end: Trump+4 or something.
FL on the other hand will be extremely tight.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
Posts: 470
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #30 on:
November 06, 2016, 10:57:43 AM »
«
Edited:
November 06, 2016, 10:59:28 AM
by
Ozymandias »
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/
FLORIDA
Of the
63%
(748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:
Clinton - 51
Trump - 41
OHIO
Of the
19%
(226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:
Clinton - 63
Trump - 33
This continues a pattern of Clinton dominating the early vote in most polls.
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
YaBB God
Posts: 4,695
Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #31 on:
November 06, 2016, 10:58:58 AM »
Quote from: Little Big BREXIT on November 06, 2016, 10:31:04 AM
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 06, 2016, 10:28:13 AM
Quote from: Eraserhead on November 06, 2016, 10:15:38 AM
We may not get winners in either state until the day after the election.
What did the last CBS/yougov polls of OH and FL have?
OH Clinton +4 OCT. 5-7
FL Clinton +3 OCT. 21-22
So this is actually a pretty terrible result for Clinton.
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
YaBB God
Posts: 4,695
Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #32 on:
November 06, 2016, 10:59:30 AM »
Quote from: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 10:57:43 AM
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/
FLORIDA
Of the
63%
(748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:
Clinton - 51
Trump - 41
OHIO
Of the
19%
(226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:
Clinton - 63
Trump - 33
On the other hand, those numbers look awesome for Clinton.
Logged
Arch
Atlas Icon
Posts: 11,983
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #33 on:
November 06, 2016, 10:59:47 AM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 06, 2016, 10:59:30 AM
Quote from: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 10:57:43 AM
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/
FLORIDA
Of the
63%
(748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:
Clinton - 51
Trump - 41
OHIO
Of the
19%
(226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:
Clinton - 63
Trump - 33
On the other hand, those numbers look awesome for Clinton.
Right-o
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,417
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #34 on:
November 06, 2016, 11:03:23 AM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 06, 2016, 10:59:30 AM
Quote from: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 10:57:43 AM
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/
FLORIDA
Of the
63%
(748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:
Clinton - 51
Trump - 41
OHIO
Of the
19%
(226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:
Clinton - 63
Trump - 33
On the other hand, those numbers look awesome for Clinton.
Maybe, or maybe not.
The topline trend in both states favours Trump:
Logged
Absolution9
Rookie
Posts: 133
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #35 on:
November 06, 2016, 11:05:50 AM »
Quote from: Arch on November 06, 2016, 10:59:47 AM
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 06, 2016, 10:59:30 AM
Quote from: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 10:57:43 AM
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/
FLORIDA
Of the
63%
(748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:
Clinton - 51
Trump - 41
OHIO
Of the
19%
(226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:
Clinton - 63
Trump - 33
On the other hand, those numbers look awesome for Clinton.
Right-o
What's weird in a lot of these early vote polls is that they are implying huge third party numbers, way more than I expected. Does it make sense to you that 8% of early voters in Florida are casting third party ballots? I would have thought that almost all third party votes would be election day ones and that there would be way less than 8%. This isn't the first poll that has shown this.
Logged
politicallefty
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,293
Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #36 on:
November 06, 2016, 11:06:24 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 06, 2016, 11:03:23 AM
Maybe, or maybe not.
The topline trend in both states favours Trump:
Compared to when? It looks like Ohio was last polled a month ago and Florida at least a week or two or so ago.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Icon
Posts: 19,925
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #37 on:
November 06, 2016, 11:17:33 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 06, 2016, 11:03:23 AM
The topline trend in both states favours Trump:
Extrapolating momentum isn't really a thing, Tender.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
Posts: 470
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #38 on:
November 06, 2016, 11:21:59 AM »
Quote from: Absolution9 on November 06, 2016, 11:05:50 AM
What's weird in a lot of these early vote polls is that they are implying huge third party numbers, way more than I expected. Does it make sense to you that 8% of early voters in Florida are casting third party ballots? I would have thought that almost all third party votes would be election day ones and that there would be way less than 8%. This isn't the first poll that has shown this.
I don't think the missing 8% is all 3rd party vote-- what I've noticed while compiling all the early voting poll results is that very often a few percent won't say who they voted for (listed as "unsure", "none", etc.)
Now why these early voting non-respondents are still kept in the poll instead of being thrown out, I have no idea...
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
Posts: 23,185
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #39 on:
November 06, 2016, 02:02:07 PM »
OK, can someone help me please? After the Comey letter there have been 8 Florida polls.
Clinton led 6 of them, Trump 1 and one was tied.
How could it be possible that Nate Silver's model gives Trump as the favorite?
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,941
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #40 on:
November 06, 2016, 02:07:15 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2016, 02:02:07 PM
OK, can someone help me please? After the Comey letter there have been 8 Florida polls.
Clinton led 6 of them, Trump 1 and one was tied.
How could it be possible that Nate Silver's model gives Trump as the favorite?
Because Nate is a joke?
Logged
politicallefty
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,293
Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22
Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL)
«
Reply #41 on:
November 06, 2016, 02:12:46 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on November 06, 2016, 02:07:15 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2016, 02:02:07 PM
OK, can someone help me please? After the Comey letter there have been 8 Florida polls.
Clinton led 6 of them, Trump 1 and one was tied.
How could it be possible that Nate Silver's model gives Trump as the favorite?
Because Nate is a joke?
Yeah, it's a comfy job if you can get it. It's like being a meteorologist. You'll get it right 80-90% of the time, but sometimes you're wildly wrong. When you're wrong, you just chalk it up to chance and save your job. No one ever calls for the weatherman's head when he gets it wrong.
Logged
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