OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1 (user search)
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  OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1  (Read 12521 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,780


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« on: November 06, 2016, 03:44:23 PM »
A self-selecting mail poll of RVs seems... problematic. I don't see any mention of a likely voter screen?
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,780


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 06:56:00 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2016, 06:47:19 PM
It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Literary Digest poll was great... until it wasn't.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,780


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 07:27:25 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2016, 07:29:42 PM by realisticidealist »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on November 06, 2016, 07:06:51 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on November 06, 2016, 06:56:00 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2016, 06:47:19 PM
It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Literary Digest poll was great... until it wasn't.
Did Lit Digest nail the margins or just get the winner right?

Their 1932 poll called FDR's margin within 1% of the actual result. Their 1924 poll had Coolidge's vote within 2% points. Not sure about 1920 or 1928.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,780


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2016, 01:20:10 AM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on November 06, 2016, 06:56:00 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2016, 06:47:19 PM
It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Literary Digest poll was great... until it wasn't.

So, yeah.
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