OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1 (user search)
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  OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1  (Read 10704 times)
Lief 🐋
Lief
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Posts: 43,924


« on: November 06, 2016, 06:40:00 AM »

THE GOLD STANDARD
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,924


« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 11:53:29 AM »

Of course, Nate Silver adjusts this to a tie and it drops Hillary's nation-wide probability by a point. smh

The fact that that fraud rates this poll a C, when it has historically been one of the MOST ACCURATE IN THE COUNTRY is amazing.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,924


« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 12:05:18 PM »

If Quinnipiac is rated an 'A' then whatever the rating system is it is trash. I mean they aren't bad for a uni pollster... in their own state... but...

Yes.  I think his ratings rely too much on methodology (which is obviously important... and Quinnipiac is live caller and calls cell phones, etc. so it makes sense that it would be rated higher than average) and not enough on actual accuracy (which is much more important).
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,924


« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2016, 12:41:29 PM »

If Quinnipiac is rated an 'A' then whatever the rating system is it is trash. I mean they aren't bad for a uni pollster... in their own state... but...

Yes.  I think his ratings rely too much on methodology (which is obviously important... and Quinnipiac is live caller and calls cell phones, etc. so it makes sense that it would be rated higher than average) and not enough on actual accuracy (which is much more important).

It  is totally false. You don't need to think, just read  the description it is not THAT hard Roll Eyes

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Uh.  Nothing in that link supports what you said in your post.

"FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls."
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,924


« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2016, 01:38:37 PM »

Uh.  Nothing in that link supports what you said in your post.

"FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls."
You always reads the title only, huh? Roll Eyes
Please show me what I'm missing.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,924


« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2016, 06:47:19 PM »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,924


« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2016, 01:38:26 AM »

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Literary Digest poll was great... until it wasn't.

So, yeah.

Sad! Though GOLD STANDARD Marquette also turned out to be terrible. Only Selzer is still good.
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