OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1 (user search)
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  OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1  (Read 10700 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« on: November 06, 2016, 06:27:13 AM »

Seems way too far off from recent polls (consistent R+5 except Emerson tie) to really be believable.

Uh - this is the OH gold standard. This is good news for Clinton. But like all polling, we'll see.

Do people really not know this stuff?
"C+" according to 538 with D+1.1 house effect.  Worse than "B-"  Gravis.

But your definition of the gold standard is Hillary leading, so no worries Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 11:54:08 AM »

Of course, Nate Silver adjusts this to a tie

Why are not complaining when 538 adjusts CNN, IBD/TIPP, Selzer or Quinnipiac towards Clinton (they are all "A" pollsters). smh Roll Eyes

and it drops Hillary's nation-wide probability by a point. smh

No, it was Sienna (they were added together)
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 12:38:27 PM »

If Quinnipiac is rated an 'A' then whatever the rating system is it is trash. I mean they aren't bad for a uni pollster... in their own state... but...

Yes.  I think his ratings rely too much on methodology (which is obviously important... and Quinnipiac is live caller and calls cell phones, etc. so it makes sense that it would be rated higher than average) and not enough on actual accuracy (which is much more important).

It  is totally false. You don't need to think, just read  the description it is not THAT hard Roll Eyes

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2016, 01:29:42 PM »

Uh.  Nothing in that link supports what you said in your post.

"FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls."
You always reads the title only, huh? Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
Sweden


« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2016, 01:53:39 PM »

Uh.  Nothing in that link supports what you said in your post.

"FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls."
You always reads the title only, huh? Roll Eyes
Please show me what I'm missing.
Click on "definitions" and read Tongue
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