OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1
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  OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1
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Author Topic: OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1  (Read 12242 times)
dspNY
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« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2016, 08:01:45 AM »

Some of the Repub avatars here are quoting 538 pollster ratings as gospel. They need to get off the reefer on this one. Nate obviously doesn't like the Dispatch poll because it is a mail poll but it is considered a gold-standard poll in OH for a reason; it almost always gets the election correct
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m4567
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« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2016, 08:58:46 AM »

Who knows. PPP said it's been within a point the last 4 times they've polled Ohio.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2016, 09:03:32 AM »

I've never thought of Columbus Dipatch as a good poll but since they got O's margin in 2012 pretty close, I hope they're on the right track again.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #28 on: November 06, 2016, 09:42:20 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2016, 09:47:26 AM by Ozymandias »

After looking into this one a bit, it seems it has a very weird methodology. I guess people "mail-in" their responses? I figure I should post this before Trump people jump all over it.

That said though, it has apparently been very accurate in previous elections, so we'll see.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/insight/2016/11/06/01-the-inside-story-dispatch-mail-poll-unorthodox-accurate.html
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #29 on: November 06, 2016, 10:03:16 AM »

Quote
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Interesting stuff.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #30 on: November 06, 2016, 11:42:36 AM »

The Columbus Dispatch poll has a good reputation people. Doesn't mean it's always going to be right but...

I guess that as weird and old world its method may seem, well, it isn't as though those of conventional pollsters are particularly well suited to 2016 is it?
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Xing
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« Reply #31 on: November 06, 2016, 11:45:04 AM »

This really could come down to ground game, and might be like Florida 2012. Two of the pollsters showing Trump up by 5 were very R friendly pollsters, and while Q is better than those other pollsters, it's still sometimes found weird results out of Ohio. This one could be a nailbiter.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #32 on: November 06, 2016, 11:46:13 AM »

Of course, Nate Silver adjusts this to a tie and it drops Hillary's nation-wide probability by a point. smh
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #33 on: November 06, 2016, 11:53:29 AM »

Of course, Nate Silver adjusts this to a tie and it drops Hillary's nation-wide probability by a point. smh

The fact that that fraud rates this poll a C, when it has historically been one of the MOST ACCURATE IN THE COUNTRY is amazing.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #34 on: November 06, 2016, 11:54:08 AM »

Of course, Nate Silver adjusts this to a tie

Why are not complaining when 538 adjusts CNN, IBD/TIPP, Selzer or Quinnipiac towards Clinton (they are all "A" pollsters). smh Roll Eyes

and it drops Hillary's nation-wide probability by a point. smh

No, it was Sienna (they were added together)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #35 on: November 06, 2016, 12:00:21 PM »

If Quinnipiac is rated an 'A' then whatever the rating system is it is trash. I mean they aren't bad for a uni pollster... in their own state... but...
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #36 on: November 06, 2016, 12:05:18 PM »

If Quinnipiac is rated an 'A' then whatever the rating system is it is trash. I mean they aren't bad for a uni pollster... in their own state... but...

Yes.  I think his ratings rely too much on methodology (which is obviously important... and Quinnipiac is live caller and calls cell phones, etc. so it makes sense that it would be rated higher than average) and not enough on actual accuracy (which is much more important).
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alomas
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« Reply #37 on: November 06, 2016, 12:06:22 PM »

Of course, Nate Silver adjusts this to a tie

Why are not complaining when 538 adjusts CNN, IBD/TIPP, Selzer or Quinnipiac towards Clinton (they are all "A" pollsters). smh Roll Eyes

and it drops Hillary's nation-wide probability by a point. smh

No, it was Sienna (they were added together)
Because it is better than her haha Tongue
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dspNY
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« Reply #38 on: November 06, 2016, 12:10:02 PM »

I would love to see the University of Cincinnati poll (Ohio poll)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #39 on: November 06, 2016, 12:16:54 PM »

If Quinnipiac is rated an 'A' then whatever the rating system is it is trash. I mean they aren't bad for a uni pollster... in their own state... but...

Yes.  I think his ratings rely too much on methodology (which is obviously important... and Quinnipiac is live caller and calls cell phones, etc. so it makes sense that it would be rated higher than average) and not enough on actual accuracy (which is much more important).

It's hilarious: the man built his name on an injection of empiricism into public discourse about polling, only to retreat into a mannered and theory-driven safe space!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #40 on: November 06, 2016, 12:38:27 PM »

If Quinnipiac is rated an 'A' then whatever the rating system is it is trash. I mean they aren't bad for a uni pollster... in their own state... but...

Yes.  I think his ratings rely too much on methodology (which is obviously important... and Quinnipiac is live caller and calls cell phones, etc. so it makes sense that it would be rated higher than average) and not enough on actual accuracy (which is much more important).

It  is totally false. You don't need to think, just read  the description it is not THAT hard Roll Eyes

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #41 on: November 06, 2016, 12:41:29 PM »

If Quinnipiac is rated an 'A' then whatever the rating system is it is trash. I mean they aren't bad for a uni pollster... in their own state... but...

Yes.  I think his ratings rely too much on methodology (which is obviously important... and Quinnipiac is live caller and calls cell phones, etc. so it makes sense that it would be rated higher than average) and not enough on actual accuracy (which is much more important).

It  is totally false. You don't need to think, just read  the description it is not THAT hard Roll Eyes

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Uh.  Nothing in that link supports what you said in your post.

"FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls."
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #42 on: November 06, 2016, 12:45:07 PM »

I would love to see the University of Cincinnati poll (Ohio poll)

I'm definitely interested to see what they have to say.  In 2012, it came out on the day before the election I believe.
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afleitch
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« Reply #43 on: November 06, 2016, 12:48:39 PM »

I would love to see the University of Cincinnati poll (Ohio poll)

I'm definitely interested to see what they have to say.  In 2012, it came out on the day before the election I believe.

Obama +1 50/49
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2016, 01:29:42 PM »

Uh.  Nothing in that link supports what you said in your post.

"FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls."
You always reads the title only, huh? Roll Eyes
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Holmes
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« Reply #45 on: November 06, 2016, 01:30:34 PM »


BEAUTIFUL!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #46 on: November 06, 2016, 01:38:37 PM »

Uh.  Nothing in that link supports what you said in your post.

"FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls."
You always reads the title only, huh? Roll Eyes
Please show me what I'm missing.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #47 on: November 06, 2016, 01:41:34 PM »

Fantastic news! Cheesy

I really hope Hillary makes a strong push for OH.
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izixs
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« Reply #48 on: November 06, 2016, 01:41:48 PM »

One interesting thing about the demographics break down of the poll is that its about 88% white while the state's voting age population is closer to 83%. Not saying the real world demographics are going to represent election day, but if the actual results reflect this poll, then there's still room for dems to grow in Ohio by increasing minority turnout next election.

As for Portman vs Stricklan, the short of the long is, Portman went on air early with very misleading ads claiming his opponent destroyed the Ohio economy (which isn't true, as he was governor during the 08 economic collapse, not his fault) which has really set the race early.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #49 on: November 06, 2016, 01:53:39 PM »

Uh.  Nothing in that link supports what you said in your post.

"FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls."
You always reads the title only, huh? Roll Eyes
Please show me what I'm missing.
Click on "definitions" and read Tongue
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