Who will win Ohio?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Trump in a squeaker.

rip in peace me

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

- I predict eharding will bump 10 threads over a year old this time tomorrow...

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

- I predict eharding will bump 10 threads over a year old this time tomorrow...

-You'll be wrong, since I'm mainly looking at threads made after Super Tuesday.

[Xing]

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLLLOLOLOLOLPLOLLOLOOLLOLOO'OLLO''P''PLLOLLOLL

ATLAS AT ITS FINEST

Do you have nothing else to do with your life?

I think we all know the answer to that.

[Dr. MB]

Trump by 8.

Pretty close.

[Associate Justice PiT]

A 447,841 vote and 8.07% margin for Trump in Ohio.

How was everyone so wrong about Ohio (polling, I mean)?

--------------------------------------------------------------

I've heard some commentators say that the polls were right, after all, with Clinton's 2 - 3% national margin being close to reality.  But that conclusion overlooks how far off the polls were in OH, FL, NC, PA, MI, WI, IA, and probably in under-forecasting Clinton's 30% margin in California!  Yes, when all combined for a national margin, the polls look reasonable, but state-by-state, far off the mark in so many key states!

     It's notable that while the nationwide polls were pretty good, the state polls were well off-the-mark. Trump was underestimated in the Midwest and Clinton was underestimated on the Pacific Coast and the mid-Atlantic Seaboard. Nationally, this error basically averaged out.

[peterthlee]

A 447,841 vote and 8.07% margin for Trump in Ohio.

How was everyone so wrong about Ohio (polling, I mean)?

--------------------------------------------------------------

I've heard some commentators say that the polls were right, after all, with Clinton's 2 - 3% national margin being close to reality.  But that conclusion overlooks how far off the polls were in OH, FL, NC, PA, MI, WI, IA, and probably in under-forecasting Clinton's 30% margin in California!  Yes, when all combined for a national margin, the polls look reasonable, but state-by-state, far off the mark in so many key states!

     It's notable that while the nationwide polls were pretty good, the state polls were well off-the-mark. Trump was underestimated in the Midwest and Clinton was underestimated on the Pacific Coast and the mid-Atlantic Seaboard. Nationally, this error basically averaged out.

Ja.

[Beet]

Yeah, the fact that the national polls weren't too far off the top line is creating a false sense of reassurance for pollsters, when in fact they were systemically wrong.