What percentage of the electorate will Hispanics make up?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

In 2012 they made up 10% with only 48% turnout...This year they make up 17.6% of the United states population(5.1% more than blacks.) and are coming out big time...If they vote like blacks they could match their share of the population.

I'll guess 14.5% percent of the electorate. This will force whites into the mid to high 60'%s.

[Dr. Arch]

About 14% sounds right.

[Likely Voter]

I would guess

White 70 (-2)
Black 12 (-1)
Hispanic 12 (+2)
Asian 4 (+1)
Other 2 (-)

[Desroko]

These are all way too high. Use census data, not exit polls.

10-10.5%, up over 8.4% in 2012.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

These are all way too high. Use census data, not exit polls.

10-10.5%, up over 8.4% in 2012.

Uh... why use census data? Since they're not likely to line up.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

These are all way too high. Use census data, not exit polls.

10-10.5%, up over 8.4% in 2012.

lol,

census data shows that they're near 17.5% of the population and my 10% for 2012 is from ---> http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

[Desroko]

These are all way too high. Use census data, not exit polls.

10-10.5%, up over 8.4% in 2012.

lol,

census data shows that they're near 17.5% of the population and my 10% for 2012 is from ---> http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

Yes, that's exit poll data. It overestimates youth turnout, which has a side effect of overestimating minority turnout. Use census data.

[Desroko]

These are all way too high. Use census data, not exit polls.

10-10.5%, up over 8.4% in 2012.

Uh... why use census data? Since they're not likely to line up.

The ACS is a high-quality survey conducted by professionals across the entire nation over a reasonable time-frame. The NEP exit poll is a low-quality survey conducted by volunteers at a handful of polling places on a single day (mostly) and since 2012, only in selected states.

Professionals use census data. Amateurs use exit polls.

[Desroko]

And to be fair: While I don't have a particular high professional opinion of Edison, exit polls are extraordinarily difficult to conduct under the best of circumstances. The NEP survey is undermanned and underfunded, and polling place laws in some states severely hurt their effectiveness.

[The Other Castro]

The exits will probably show around 12% or so, but real numbers will be closer to 10%. From Nate Cohn's data, the exits in 2012 showed Hispanics at 10% while their real number was closer to 8%.

[Erc]

Probably around 9.5% or so; certainly no more than 10.5%.

As noted, we'll have to wait for the November CPS to verify this.