McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 12:53:16 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2  (Read 3411 times)
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


« on: November 05, 2016, 02:06:03 PM »


They have Latinos at 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.

Take the sample out and put Latino Decisions in , then Clinton goes up 3 points and Trump down 2. When over 40% of the people who vote Democratic are minority voters, you need to get those samples right in order to get an accurate vote share for the Democratic candidate.

Yeah, I'd trust Latino Decisions simply because they get a larger sample size of Latinos than most polls. If you swapped out their samples and put in Latino Decision's samples in their recent state polls, Arizona looks a lot more interesting, and Florida and Nevada start looking like locks for Clinton.
Advocacy groips tend not to provide reliable samples. They overestimated Democratic support compared to exit polls in 2012 and 2014
Logged
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 02:06:26 PM »


They have Latinos at 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.

Take the sample out and put Latino Decisions in , then Clinton goes up 3 points and Trump down 2. When over 40% of the people who vote Democratic are minority voters, you need to get those samples right in order to get an accurate vote share for the Democratic candidate.

Yeah, I'd trust Latino Decisions simply because they get a larger sample size of Latinos than most polls. If you swapped out their samples and put in Latino Decision's samples in their recent state polls, Arizona looks a lot more interesting, and Florida and Nevada start looking like locks for Clinton.
Advocacy groips tend not to provide reliable samples. They overestimated Democratic support compared to exit polls in 2012 and 2014
Logged
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 02:10:53 PM »

Advocacy groips tend not to provide reliable samples.

Latino Decisions isn't an advocacy group lol.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Um... perhaps your candidate has alienated them in a way that no modern candidate ever has?
I meant their polls were off the last two election cycles. Just check their twitter feed if you don't think they're an advocacy group
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 15 queries.